EXTREME WEATHER: Halfway through, 2011 has already seen eight weather-related disasters that caused more than $1 billion in damages
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The devastating string of tornadoes, droughts, wildfires and floods that hit the United States this spring marks 2011 as one of the most extreme years on record, according to a new federal analysis.
Just shy of the halfway mark, 2011 has seen eight $1-billion-plus disasters, with total damages from wild weather at more than $32 billion, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Agency officials said that total could grow significantly, since they expect this year's North Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1, will be an active one.
Overall, NOAA experts said extreme weather events have grown more frequent in the United States since 1980. Part of that shift is due to climate change, said Tom Karl, director of the agency's National Climatic Data Center.
"Extremes of precipitation are generally increasing because the planet is actually warming and more water is evaporating from the oceans," he said. "This extra water vapor in the atmosphere then enables rain and snow events to become more extensive and intense than they might otherwise be."
But for some kinds of extreme weather, teasing out a contribution from climate change is more difficult.
The second half of April brought a swarm of tornadoes that leveled parts of the Midwest, including the twister that killed 151 people in Joplin, Mo. So far, 2011 has seen the sixth-highest number of tornado deaths on record, prompting many people to wonder whether climate change has played a role. So far, scientists say there's no good evidence for or against a climate change influence on tornado behavior.
Meanwhile, computer models predict that droughts -- like those that have scorched large swaths of Texas, New Mexico and Arizona this year -- will become stronger and more frequent as climate change continues. But because patterns of drought vary widely from decade to decade, that makes it "very difficult and unlikely that we're going to be able to discern a human fingerprint, if there is one, on the drought record in the foreseeable future," Karl said.
'Sometimes Mother Nature just blasts us'
Katherine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University, used a medical analogy to explain how climate change could affect extreme weather.
"If you get a really bad bug, it could be that you were really run down," she said. "The bug is what is making you sick, but the background conditions -- being run down -- make you more susceptible to that virus. We have to acknowledge that we are changing the background conditions."
Warmer temperatures provide more energy and water in the atmosphere to feed storms, she said, noting evidence that heavy precipitation events are becoming more frequent in some parts of the globe.
But not everyone is convinced. Bill Patzert, a climate scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, says he believes that climate change is real, but "it's too simple an answer to say there is more moisture in the atmosphere, so storms are more violent."
"Sometimes we have a quiet year, and sometimes Mother Nature just blasts us," he said.
More obvious influences on this year's wild weather, experts said, were La Niña and an unusual blast of cold Arctic air that reached as far south as the central United States last winter.
The droughts and associated wildfires seen across the southern United States this year, as well as increased rain and snow in the northern half of the country, are characteristic side effects of La Niña, a global weather pattern scientists recognize by the telltale pattern of cooling the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The most recent La Niña, which ended late last month, was a strong one, said Michelle L'Heureux, a climate scientist who leads the El Niño-La Niña forecasting team at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
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23 Comments
Add CommentLa Nina is over, China is drowning.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Sometimes we have a quiet year, and sometimes Mother Nature just blasts us," [Bill Patzert, a climate scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory]said."
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Mother Nature"? - A climate scientist referencing "Mother Nature" and "sometimes this and sometimes that" hardly seems scientific at all. Give us the facts, man.
Is it too far fetched to consider the lining up of our planets that is responsible for our weather conditions? What about our new discovery of planet X, or is it Nibiru that the ancient Mayans warned us about? Now we have a comet or death star in our Solar System. Recent changes found in our Earth's magnetic field including a hole. Oh, not to mention the numerous & increasing UFO sightings from countries all over the world. Solar flares and hugh asteroids falling too close to Earth. Historical rising of the Mississippi. The recent Tornadoes formed aren't of the norm. What's the weather all about? The crop circles/symbols left are messages/warnings from above, the same symbols the Mayans left in stone. Seems there are a lot of connections here. I'm no scientist but shouldn't we all keep an open mind on what its all got to do with..... the weather on this Earth!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thislittlbits,
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYes, farfetched and yes, you are no scientist. Crop circles? UFO's? Are you serious?
"I'm no scientist"...the only thing you said that didn't sound idiotic. Keeping an open mind does not mean accepting as truth the ravings of a lunatic. Science is about proof not about blind acceptance. So please provide some or save your fantasies for some sci-fi blog.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisDon't worry, things are not so bad, not yet. 2011 will be trumped before 2015.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWorld governments need to consider issuing ration cards to their citizens to see them through the coming famine.
There is always Soylent Green...
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Is it too far fetched to consider the lining up of our planets that is responsible for our weather conditions?"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYES. It would have made just as much sense if you theorized that Santa Claus was testing a faster sleigh, and thus disrupted weather patterns that way...
So what do we do now? It doesn't matter what caused the problem, the weather has been weird. How do we use the little bit of knowledge we have to at least be better prepared for these natural disasters?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAnother so-called 'scientific' article from SA with no actual science.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this'It's official' Scientific American has declined in credibility in 2011
Well stated. Mother Nature?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisSo next year when there are less damage from tornadoes it will mean what?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThat will be dismissed as 'weather'.
@geojellyroll, you don't seem to realize that this is a science news magazine not a publisher of peer reviewed scientific papers. If you want scientific papers you can read Nature. Sciam is just here to tell us what's going on, not the details of the underlying science. Of course your only intent here is to cast doubt on a source of info that conflicts with your world view so nothing I say will make any difference. I'm guessing a born again, tea party, climate denier who's been abducted by UFOs. Next time the little green men take you to see Jesus, ask them not to bring you back.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou are all kinds of wrong for that answer: depending on the age of the contributor, he/she may not know what soylent green is....:-#
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIn reply to geojellyroll. One role of science is to predict future events/discoveries using known science. James Hansen, among others, has predicted more severe weather events as a result of climate change. If this seems to be borne out by observation it certainly is of scientific importance.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisDo you really want to wait until there's NO doubt before acting?
It's always tedious to hear the Heritage Foundation's opinion, but thanks anyway. The majority of us understand that sciam is a science news site and not a peer reviewed journal. Read Nature if you want the detailed science. But of course your only point is to try and cast doubt on a publication that continually challenges your world view. By the way you forgot to claim that you are cancelling your subscription of 10 years. We've heard it all before.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisHuh? "No actual science?" I agree that this article disappointingly lacks specifics. But its generalizations are based on a body of scientific evidence and informed conjecture. The sweeping reference to "computer models" is irritating (whose computer models? what data do they use?), but IMHO doesn't qualify the statement as unscientific, just shallow. Is it "unscientific" to say the universe began with a so-called "Big Bang" even though not all models agree on this? Your own assertions as to the unscientific nature of this article are even more empty than the article itself.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYes, it is too far fetched that the lining up of the planets is causing the weather patterns on earth and warming the climate.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe obvious 'solutions' - decrease NOAA funding, attack it and Scientific American's credibility, and find some crackpot scientist that contends the Earth is actually cooling.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe obvious 'solutions' - decrease NOAA funding, attack it and Scientific American's credibility, and find some crackpot scientist that contends the Earth is actually cooling.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAs inflation increases, so also with the number of billion dollar disasters.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisDollars are a terrible measure of comparing years of climate related disasters. How did this even make it into ScientificAmerican???
I thought this article was pretty brave, the temptation is to blame global warming and climate change, but instead the article points out that there is no firm consensus as of now. As it is I've been wondering about all the tornadoes and thunderstorms this year, it makes me wonder what hurricane season will be like.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWe have an exact way to measure global warming or cooling. Sea level is inversely related to global average temperature.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf the Earth is really warming then the polar ice sheets should be increasing in size. This is because the polar regions are not heated by the sun directly. A warming Earth would cause more moisture to condense in the polar regions, which means more ice.
The fact that moisture transfers heat to the poles should be obvious to climate scientists. But those scientists ignore the obvious. Instead, they imagine that sea level rise is due to warming. In fact, sea level rise is due to global cooling since less moisture is moving to the poles where it freezes.
The Earth's poles act like the air conditioners for the Earth. More heat means more moisture and so more ice at the poles. Moisture is the refrigerant in the air conditioning cycle of the Earth.