Imagine being present at the birth of a new industry. It is an industry based on groundbreaking new technologies, wherein a handful of well-established corporations sell highly specialized devices for business use and a fast-growing number of start-up companies produce innovative toys, gadgets for hobbyists and other interesting niche products. But it is also a highly fragmented industry with few common standards or platforms. Projects are complex, progress is slow, and practical applications are relatively rare. In fact, for all the excitement and promise, no one can say with any certainty when--or even if--this industry will achieve critical mass. If it does, though, it may well change the world.

Of course, the paragraph above could be a description of the computer industry during the mid-1970s, around the time that Paul Allen and I launched Microsoft. Back then, big, expensive mainframe computers ran the back-office operations for major companies, governmental departments and other institutions. Researchers at leading universities and industrial laboratories were creating the basic building blocks that would make the information age possible. Intel had just introduced the 8080 microprocessor, and Atari was selling the popular electronic game Pong. At homegrown computer clubs, enthusiasts struggled to figure out exactly what this new technology was good for.

This article was originally published with the title A Robot in Every Home.

7 Comments

1. 1. mayim1 04:06 PM 11/15/07

   Shades of Isaac Asimov. He envisioned all of this and more. But lurking in the background is the fearful super intelligent Robot that has the potential to erase the human being from existence. (the terminator, I, robot etc. Also the question arises will AI eventually be considered an enslaved species? I think therefore I am. then arises emancipation of the enslaved robots who want to be more than a servant, who wants individual recognition as a personality! They might produce plays, books, comedy, that would be far more complex and interesting than humans could produce. Perhaps not consumed by any but the robotic culture due to the complexities beyond human understanding. Humankind being then considered a dumb sub-culture. Maybe we should think about it and leave machines to brainless tasks that do not require sentience. But then again, if we are the gods that create such beings, perhaps we could create a race of Saints that would never do anything but good to human beings.

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2. 2. Peter !4 02:50 AM 12/14/07

   Feel Good's

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3. 3. neo541 11:32 AM 12/23/07

   I think it will not take that much of time to deploy in streets for general purposes,they are already in Korea and Japan.Bill can't monopolise this MARKET with his ROBOTICS STUDIO(sdk).I would think the future will be more precise than his .......................,!

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4. 4. roboshop.se 12:28 PM 9/2/08

   Will robots ever meet today's dreams of their ability? I think the solution lies in the key elements that Bill described. But not least in the fact that a major player enters to "legalize" or more "assign a direction" for the development. In PC's, the exoansion and standardisation really took off when IBM entered the market. Microsoft would be ideal to play the IBM part in robotics.
   But the vision? Well, think of the old computer vision: A computer is a machine that has all knowledge there is. You could ask the machine anything and get an answer. This couldn't be done before. But now you can. You just have to Google your question and in 99 out of 100 times, you get an answer.
   So robotics will reach the target of ability.
   Sooner than you think.

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5. 5. gigabetz 07:32 PM 4/26/09

   Once robots are designed like us, with digital components mimicking the human brain, they will suffer fewer flaws than we humans do. They will become our judges and doctors. They will process vast resources of information in less time than it takes to make a cup of coffee. They will be able to assess situations quicker than we can without anxiety and stress. These robots will have the advantage of accessing the internet in real time and will be able to problem solve much quicker and efficiently than a team of experts. They will takle some of the hardest problems science has to offer and come up with solutions much quicker than we can. Imagine what the simple acquisition of perfect memory would do to a humans potential! Imagine what being able to access any information at the drop of a hat would do for a human? What about the ability to outlive a human and to carry on complex research long after a human could. Humans will always be unique but a balance will have to be struck between us and them. First we need to build a flawless neural network, then the fun can begin. It's all very exciting!

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6. 6. opkoad 05:25 AM 5/24/09

   I was with him until the last paragraph. Throughout the article, he espouses a general platform for software, but seems to not care so much about a general platform for hardware. Why? In our homes, the most general platform is a humanoid figure, because our home is designed around humans. If I've got a mess of cups and dishes strewn about my counters, the only satisfactory solution is a general-purpose humanoid, not some large specialized dish-collection apparatus that will take up permanent space in my kitchen. Furthermore, in this decade, we have practically mastered walking humanoid robots. Now more than ever it seems like a near-term reality, and consumers will not (and really, need not) accept anything less.
   

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7. 7. SachiNewDelhi 11:19 PM 5/17/13

   Reading this in 2013 was interesting.
   
   Nobody seems to be able to "get" this robotics thing right.
   
   Nobody can "predict" when the field will take off and robots will become ubiquitous.
   
   And of course, as Bill Gates has written, it's difficult to "define" precisely what a robot is.
   
   To just give one example: are the self-driving cars from Google and others robots?
   
   And what about Siri or Google's equivalent service?

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