HOT CHOCOLATE: West Africa's climate may become too hot to grow cacao--the source of much of the world's chocolate supply.
Image: flickr/miss604
Climate change could destroy West Africa's cocoa farms, disrupting domestic and international economies, experts say.
By 2060, more than half of the cocoa-producing countries in the region may be too hot to grow the crop, according to a report released by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture. If scientists can't engineer a drought-resistant cocoa tree, the international market will see a significant increase in prices, and West African nations may experience a spike in poverty, drug trafficking and food riots.
"Hopefully, Ghana or West Africa is able to adapt to climate change to maintain their cocoa production," said Peter Laderach, a researcher at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture. "People will continue eating chocolate. If they don't produce it, someone else will."
Worldwide, the cocoa industry is a $5.1 billion market, with West Africa growing more than half of the 3 million tons sold annually, according to the World Cocoa Foundation (WCF). Ivory Coast and Ghana are the two largest producers, but rising temperatures will make it difficult for these countries to hold on to that lead.
The cocoa industry is already reporting an estimated 1.5 million ton shortage by 2020. And El Niño weather patterns forecast for later this year could exacerbate the issue, as severe weather alters growing patterns, according to Coffee and Cocoa International, an industry publication.
While supply decreases, global demand is projected to rise. The United States and Europe have always been large buyers, but now that China and South Korea are also investing in cocoa products, market competition will only intensify, said Mbalo Ndiaye, the director of the WCF's West Africa office.
Such scarcity has had a profound effect on industry pricing. In 2000, cocoa cost $714 per ton, but by the spring of 2011, it was at a high of $3,775 per ton, according to Coffee and Cocoa International. Higher prices don't necessarily trickle down to farmers, whose abject poverty prevents them from making long-term plans to compensate for increased temperatures.
"We're dealing with some of the poorest countries in the world ... where there's political instability," said Elan Emanuel, a supply chain manager at Fair Trade USA. "Climate change is the least of their worries."
Problem for big companies and small farmers
Yet it's one of the main issues for manufacturers worldwide. Chocolate is used in a variety of products; lotions, body washes and even cosmetics contain traces of the bean. It's also a culturally significant crop for many countries. About 5.5 million cocoa farmers rely on the business for their livelihoods, passing down small family farms from generation to generation, Ndiaye said.
"We've been growing cocoa for years," he added. "It dated back from the colonial era."
However, cocoa didn't begin as a West African tradition. According to the WCF, it was the Mayans in South America who started the trend, using cocoa in rituals and assigning it a monetary value. Ancient texts show that a horse could be purchased with just 10 beans.
When the Spaniards conquered the Western world, Mayan infatuation with the bean jumped the Atlantic Ocean and spread throughout Europe. By the 18th century, countries around the globe wanted a taste of "theobroma cacao," or "food of the gods."
The bean hasn't lost its popularity, which is why conservationists are working to improve farming conditions in West Africa. Organizations have launched programs that teach landowners how to shade their cocoa trees and lay down ground cover to increase soil moisture. However, these methods will have only a minimal cooling impact. In the long run, no amount of simple adaptation methods will be exceptionally effective against rising temperatures.
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12 Comments
Add CommentJust grow dark chocolate.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThis article is poorly researched. There are three main cultivar groups of cacao beans used to make cocoa and chocolate. Are all three at risk or just one? 80% of chocolate is made using beans of the Forastero group. Forastero trees are significantly hardier than Criollo trees. Thus, is the article meant to skew the response?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"the Mayans in South America who started the trend, using cocoa in rituals and assigning it a monetary value. Ancient texts show that a horse could be purchased with just 10 beans."
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this- that's fascinating. I was under the impression that during the Mayan era there were no horses in the Americas having long been extinct- and not reintroduced until the Aztec era when the Spanish arrived.
I'm curious where the Mayans found horses.
I absolutely agree with David N Goog. I am also under the impression that the climate near the equator never changed significantly through the ages. I also can not see any good reason why cocoa is not grown in Malaysia,Indonesia and India, or even in its native South and Middle America. I presume all it takes is a little price increase and these countries will start growing cocoa as well.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAll the points made are valid, I think the article is less than accurate, and more information and data is needed, as well as the Mayan reference being less than accurate and out of historical context. Nevertheless, does anyone even care about what happens in Africa, and to subsistence African farmers ??? Regardless of all the inaccuracies, I believe the most important issue raised by the article is actually not about chocolate or cacao, but about real and future social and political problems in Africa.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe Koch Army is out in full force, I see.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAll hail the mighty Inhofe - there is no global warming...ok, but there is no AGW...ok, but it is negligible...ok, but they'll just migrate to cooler climates with their forests and livestock. Think of the real estate fortunes to be made in Antarctica once those pesky glaciers have melted away!
Problem solved. Al Gore bad bla bla bla... /snark
Wow, you are really a horrible human being.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this????????????
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThia article has a misleading headline....again.
may, could, ....more agenda driven drivel.
如果没有咖啡，那么选择茶吧。:)
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWell, the climate has warmed... Let's check what cocoa production has done thru warming:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWORLD Cocoa Mean Production FOA(UN Food and Agriculture Org)
1988-1990 - 2,460,000 tons
1998-2000 - 2,905,000 tons
2010 - 3,700,000 tons
World cocoa production is expected to grow at a rate of 2.2 percent a year, from 1998 - 2000 to 2010, compared with the 1.7 percent growth during the previous decade.
Is it against Sci-am policy to include facts in an article? GK
Here is the graph FAO in tonnes:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://www.fao.org/docrep/006/Y4343E/y4343e1w.jpg
And who is this "pokerplayer" and where is his comment? Is it now Sci Am's practice to suppress people and viewpoints with whom it disagrees?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this