Regions including Asia, South America or parts of Africa that were previously too cool to grow cocoa may plant more trees and could possibly pick up the slack in the market. However, it's unlikely that they will be able to meet market demands, which are projected to increase 3 percent per year as they have for the past century, according to the WCF.

The switch to new regions will change the flavor profile of chocolate, which depends heavily on growing conditions. Such transitions are potentially worrisome for large corporations concerned about brand image and advertising.

These companies, desperate to retain their market shares, have implemented various outreach programs to help farmers, many of whom have left their rural villages in the hopes of finding better work in the cities.

"Businesses are worried about climate change," Emanuel said. "These guys are just trying to figure out what to eat for dinner at night as opposed to their livelihoods 20 years down the road."

Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500

12 Comments

1. 1. lamorpa 02:03 PM 8/13/12

   Just grow dark chocolate.

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2. 2. 2008RealityCheck 02:12 PM 8/13/12

   This article is poorly researched. There are three main cultivar groups of cacao beans used to make cocoa and chocolate. Are all three at risk or just one? 80% of chocolate is made using beans of the Forastero group. Forastero trees are significantly hardier than Criollo trees. Thus, is the article meant to skew the response?

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3. 3. David N'Gog 03:38 PM 8/13/12

   "the Mayans in South America who started the trend, using cocoa in rituals and assigning it a monetary value. Ancient texts show that a horse could be purchased with just 10 beans."
   
   
   - that's fascinating. I was under the impression that during the Mayan era there were no horses in the Americas having long been extinct- and not reintroduced until the Aztec era when the Spanish arrived.
   
   I'm curious where the Mayans found horses.

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4. 4. Fanandala in reply to David N'Gog 04:01 PM 8/13/12

   I absolutely agree with David N Goog. I am also under the impression that the climate near the equator never changed significantly through the ages. I also can not see any good reason why cocoa is not grown in Malaysia,Indonesia and India, or even in its native South and Middle America. I presume all it takes is a little price increase and these countries will start growing cocoa as well.

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5. 5. maraven in reply to Fanandala 05:29 PM 8/13/12

   All the points made are valid, I think the article is less than accurate, and more information and data is needed, as well as the Mayan reference being less than accurate and out of historical context. Nevertheless, does anyone even care about what happens in Africa, and to subsistence African farmers ??? Regardless of all the inaccuracies, I believe the most important issue raised by the article is actually not about chocolate or cacao, but about real and future social and political problems in Africa.

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6. 6. doctordawg 07:32 PM 8/13/12

   The Koch Army is out in full force, I see.
   
   All hail the mighty Inhofe - there is no global warming...ok, but there is no AGW...ok, but it is negligible...ok, but they'll just migrate to cooler climates with their forests and livestock. Think of the real estate fortunes to be made in Antarctica once those pesky glaciers have melted away!
   
   Problem solved. Al Gore bad bla bla bla... /snark

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7. 7. RSchmidt in reply to pokerplyer 11:46 PM 8/13/12

   Wow, you are really a horrible human being.

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8. 8. geojellyroll 12:56 AM 8/14/12

   ????????????
   Thia article has a misleading headline....again.
   
   may, could, ....more agenda driven drivel.

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9. 9. Housq 05:40 AM 8/14/12

   如果没有咖啡，那么选择茶吧。:)

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10. 10. G. Karst 12:33 AM 8/16/12

    Well, the climate has warmed... Let's check what cocoa production has done thru warming:
    
    WORLD Cocoa Mean Production FOA(UN Food and Agriculture Org)
    
    1988-1990 - 2,460,000 tons
    1998-2000 - 2,905,000 tons
    2010 - 3,700,000 tons
    
    World cocoa production is expected to grow at a rate of 2.2 percent a year, from 1998 - 2000 to 2010, compared with the 1.7 percent growth during the previous decade.
    
    Is it against Sci-am policy to include facts in an article? GK

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11. 11. G. Karst in reply to G. Karst 12:56 AM 8/16/12

    Here is the graph FAO in tonnes:
    
    http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/Y4343E/y4343e1w.jpg

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12. 12. Diesel67 in reply to RSchmidt 11:47 PM 8/21/12

    And who is this "pokerplayer" and where is his comment? Is it now Sci Am's practice to suppress people and viewpoints with whom it disagrees?

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