MORE ERUPTIONS: New research suggests that sustained warmer temperatures on Earth could lead to an increase in volcanic activity.
Image: Flickr/Antonio D'Emanuele
The effect of volcanic eruptions on climate has been one of the more hotly contested topics in the global warming debate. Seized upon briefly by climate skeptics as an alternative to human-caused warming, eruptions are now understood by mainstream science to result most often in net cooling for a period of up to several years.
Few researchers, however, have considered that an inverse relationship might also exist -- that over time, climate might have an effect on the planet's igneous activity.
Yet those are precisely the findings of new research from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel in Germany. Operating over a long enough time scale, sustained warmer temperatures lead to increased frequency of volcanic activity, the research finds.
Building off research by the Collaborative Research Center, which spent 10 years exploring volcanic regions, the GEOMAR team analyzed the layers of ash left in sea beds in Central America. From these, the team was able to reconstruct a history of eruptions dating back some 460,000 years, said volcanologist Steffen Kutterolf.
In analyzing that historical record, the researchers saw a distinct pattern emerge, he said. "There were periods when we found significantly more large eruptions than others," he said.
When they overlaid those patterns with climate data for the same period, it became clear that periods of enhanced volcanic activity corresponded with periods of sharp temperature rise and accelerated glacier melt.
To corroborate their theory, the team needed to look beyond Central America, and core samples collected by the International Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) provided an expedient way to do so. Those samples, taken from seafloor sediments and rocks, constitute one of the most complete geological records available to scientists. And in that record, the team's theory appeared to be reaffirmed.
"We found the same pattern from these cores as in Central America," said GEOMAR geophysicist Marion Jegen.
Pushing apart tectonic plates
But how to explain the correlation? Volcanoes are products of geologic forces operating in the Earth's lower strata; climate plays out most visibly in weather patterns and surface temperatures. How could these seemingly separate spheres interact?
Through collaborative work with researchers at Harvard University and extensive computer modeling, the GEOMAR team arrived at a possible explanation. A warming climate would eliminate a large portion of the ice massed at the northern and southern poles, they hypothesized, lessening the pressure on continents and allowing them to spread.
In the fissures between geologic plates, lava would then find its way to the surface.
"In times of global warming, the glaciers are melting on the continents relatively quickly," said Jegen. "At the same time, the sea level rises. The weight on the continents decreases, while the weight on the oceanic tectonic plates increases."
"Thus, the stress changes within the Earth to open more routes for ascending magma," he added.
Periods of planetary cooling take much longer than warming phases, meaning a more gradual adjustment period for the Earth's tectonic plates. Accordingly, volcanic activity during these periods tends to be more subdued, Jegen said.
While the researchers are unsure what effects the current phase of warming, accelerated by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, might have on volcanic activity, it is unlikely that that activity will increase in any noticeable sense for at least a millennium, said Kutterolf.
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500
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24 Comments
Add Comment"Periods of planetary cooling take much longer than warming phase"? What evidence is there to back up this assertion?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisShouldn't extra volcanic activity lead to global cooling? What about "The Little Ice Age" and "The Younger Dryas"? Wouldn't more water being locked up in glaciers lessen the stress on the ocean bottoms that would lead to extra volcanic activity below the oceans?
Back in the 80's there was a compelling theory that underwater Pacific lava flows were the cause of el Nino(s).
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Wouldn't more water being locked up in glaciers lessen the stress on the ocean bottoms that would lead to extra volcanic activity below the oceans?"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisGood point. Shrinking or growing glaciers wouldn't actually change the overall pressure on the crust, they'd simply redistribute it - more pressure on land during ice ages & more in the sea during warm periods.
What I want to know is, can the geological record conlusively show which came first, the warming or the volcanism? If the volcanism was due to an icrease in Yellowstone-style mid-plate hotspots (rather than activity at plate boundaries), all that hot magma welling up close to the surface could have caused warming (via conduction through the ground) for a time before any actual eruptions started occurring to cause any of that "net cooling".
I'm gonna hafta call BS on this one. Computer modeling has been much used and usually impossible to replicate or accurately predict especially when undoctored data has been used.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisCan we please find another way to scare the public.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIs the planet's warming, or the thawing of ice crusts that frees plates for movement, as plates get ride of the weight above, thus easing the outflows of lava what causes increased volcano activity in warm eras?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere is a remote chance that this theory might be true. However, I am also certain that somebody on a government grant could develop a computer model that demonstrates as it gets light in the morning, it causes the sun to rise.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI hope the German people appreciate the wise use of their tax Euros to pay for this nonsense--they might as well be sending the money to Greece.
The Greenland ice sheet is 2km thick somewhat averaged, and up to 3km thick in parts. As, and after, the ice melts, the land will rise, it's a simple matter of gravitational equilibrium. Ice is approximately 1/3 as dense as rock; so, a new balance point will be 1/3 the thickness of the ice higher. It is not just a vertical movement; it is more like slightly expanding a balloon, at least in that section. It will take some time to reach a new equilibrium level, but there will be a shortfall of many square kilometers of crust by the time it gets there. So, what happens really depends on how quickly the ice melts, how quickly the crust responds, how 'stretchy' that section of crust is, and if there are any nearby fault lines (like the mid-Atlantic ridge running under Iceland).
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere are enormous forces at work and it would be silly to pretend they would have no effect. However, I suspect that by the time this becomes an issue for man, we will have long fried the big fish.
Care to provide concrete, documented examples?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI admit, that passage is badly-written. I'll try to explain it better.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFeedbacks in the Earth's climate system that tend to increase temperatures kick in much faster than feedbacks that tend to lower temperatures. For example, think about how quickly we are seeing glaciers disintegrate currently due to CO2-induced warming compared to how long they took to form. If you look at the temperature record, you can see this disparity with the slow declines into ice ages and the quick spikes into interglacials.
The "Little Ice Age" was caused mostly by lower solar activity while the Younger Dryas was probably caused by a number of factors that included a supervolcano eruption. Hope this clears things up.
Sault, "The "Little Ice Age" was caused mostly by lower solar activity"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAre you aware that the current solar cycle is the quietest in over a century? There are also concerns that this may be a trend for the next several cycles. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few decades.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL049328/abstract
Postman1, so, what you are saying is that despite unusually low solar activity, there has been no cooling, in fact, there is still warming. What do you think is causing the warming?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisCan't find the paper, but I saw some compelling evidence that the 11-year solar cycle is highly influenced by a resonance with Jupiter's orbital period. Some of the longer and more profound and long terms cycles like the one that caused the Maunder Minimum might involve other planets too and some murky mechanisms at work inside the Sun.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou seem to have mixed up Astrology with Astronomy again.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI just lost a whole lot of respect for Scientific American. I can't believe this was authorized for redistribution. Anyone with any type of education in the sciences know the Earth has, at times, been completely frozen over....the Snowball Earth; at other times Earth had no ice caps at all. Humans were no around in either case.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisModerate changes in surface temperatures are going to have absolutely no effect on volcanism. This is the most embarrassing environmental article I've read in a very long time.
Sorry, but the sun's cycle is not effected by Jupiter.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFound the paper:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000648
Looks like somebody is too lazy to spend 20 seconds with Google Scholar...
"Moderate changes in surface temperatures are going to have absolutely no effect on volcanism."
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisCare to offer any evidence to back up this claim? Just remember, it has to stack up to the rigor and depth of little tidbits like this:
"Building off research by the Collaborative Research Center, which spent 10 years exploring volcanic regions, the GEOMAR team analyzed the layers of ash left in sea beds in Central America. From these, the team was able to reconstruct a history of eruptions dating back some 460,000 years, said volcanologist Steffen Kutterolf.
In analyzing that historical record, the researchers saw a distinct pattern emerge, he said. "There were periods when we found significantly more large eruptions than others," he said.
When they overlaid those patterns with climate data for the same period, it became clear that periods of enhanced volcanic activity corresponded with periods of sharp temperature rise and accelerated glacier melt."
Dana Nuccitelli’s holiday trick for sobering up quick: put a little less rum in your egg nog
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/28/dana-nuccitellis-holiday-trick-for-sobering-up-quick-put-a-little-less-rum-in-your-egg-nog/
This is your explanation. Despite the title, it is a serious explanation.
Or maybe extra volcanic ash in the air changed the albedo of the ice sheets?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisNah..... must ... keep .... scary ... monster... horror ... picture... show... alive!
Finding a paper, even a peer reviewed paper, does not prove that its conclusions are valid. Try the commonsense test. Correlation does not prove causation. You might also be able to answer the chicken/egg question in relation to the claims in this article.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhy is this not headlined under Topics Energy & Sustainability?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisDoes not quite fit the SCIAM nuclear scary meme?
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=south-korea-to-expand-nuclear-energ
Another missed headline: Another story not headlined under TOPICS
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisStricken Alaska oil rig refloated, towed to safe harbor
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=stricken-alaska-oil-rig-refloated-t
It was good enough to headline: Oil Harvesting Goes to Extremes The grounding of a drilling rig in Arctic waters illustrates the risks of pushing the boundaries of oil exploration and recovery. David Biello reports: http://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode.cfm?id=oil-harvesting-goes-to-extremes-13-01-06&posted=1#comments
The grounding of a drilling rig in Arctic waters illustrates the risks of pushing the boundaries of oil exploration and recovery. David Biello reports
Perhaps there was dissapointment that a disaster did not occur?
Note: I previously commented on this & my post was deleted.
I have to agree. When I read Biello's article, I felt as though he was cheer leading for a disaster. I had not seen any followup on the piece and had wondered.
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