Some periods of mountain-building have not produced glaciers, In these periods the output of carbon dioxide from volcanoes, which are especially active during the early stages of mountain-building, might have balanced the carbonate consumption of the newly exposed rocks, In fact, a landscape teeming with active volcanoes could easily release more carbon dioxide than the rocks could possibly absorb, so the temperature of the earth would rise sufficiently to prevent the expansion of glaciers.
The geological effects of volcanic action, coal formation or any other local disturbance of the carbon dioxide concentration are not restricted to the area in which they occur. If the amount of carbon dioxide in one hemisphere of the earth rises or falls sharply, the concentration in the other hemisphere changes rather quickly. In less than a few decades the concentration in both hemispheres becomes identical. According to the carbon dioxide theory, this rapid diffusion helps to explain the fact that glaciers advance and retreat simultaneously in both hemispheres.
During the past century a new geological force has begun to exert its effect upon the carbon dioxide equilibrium of the earth [see graphs on page 43]. By burning fossil fuels man dumps approximately six billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year. His agricultural activities release two billion tons more. Grain fields and pastures store much smaller quantities of carbon dioxide than the forests they replace, and the cultivation of the soil permits the vast quantities of carbon dioxide produced by bacteria to escape into the air.
Not all of this eight billion tons of surplus carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere, Plants remove some of it. When the atmospheric concentration rises, plants use more carbon dioxide for photosynthesis. In a few years, however, the increase in the rate of photosynthesis is balanced by advances in the rate of respiration and decay processes. The net result is only a slight increase in the carbon dioxide content of the biosphere.
Most of the carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by human activities will ultimately be absorbed by the oceans[see graph on page 46]. To predict the effect of human activities upon climate we must calculate just how rapidly this happens. Recent studies make it appear that volume of carbon dioxide dissolved in the oceans comes to equilibrium with the carbon dioxide pressure of the atmosphere in about 1,000 years, and that the oceans take up about half of any carbon dioxide added to the air. Over a longer period of time, perhaps several thousand years, the oceans take up much larger additional quantities of carbon dioxide in carbonate compounds before the system again reaches equilibrium. These equilibrium rates are quite significant, because they will govern the temperature of the earth as long as man burns large amounts of fossil fuels.
We have only to extrapolate existing records of temperature and fossil-fuel consumption to predict the climate of the future. Quite accurate records of the amount of fossil fuel consumed in the world each year show that in the past 100 years man has added about 360 billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. As a result the atmospheric concentration has increased by about 13 per cent. The carbon dioxide theory predicts that such an increase should raise the average temperature of the earth one degree F. This is almost exactly the average increase recorded all over the world during the past century! If fuel consumption continues to increase at the present rate, we will have sent more than a trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the air by the year 2000. This should raise the earth's average temperature 3.6 degrees.
In less than 1,000 years, if consumption continues to increase at the current rate, we will have exhausted the currently known reserves of coal and oil. By that time we will have multiplied the carbon dioxide tonnage of the air 18 times. When the ocean–atmosphere system comes back to equilibrium, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air will be 10 times greater than it is today, and the earth will be 22 degrees warmer. In another few thousand years, when the carbonate content of the oceans has reached equilibrium, the concentration will still be four times greater than it is today. The earth's temperature will then fall to about 12.5 degrees above its present average.
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9 Comments
Add CommentOh god, get ready for a bombardment of proactive naysayers.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisLets see how many ways they can shoot down the statistical data yet again presented to them by unbiased minds.
That was a pretty cool article. Not only did it give us a unique look backward it gave us a fresh look forward; and it was enjoyable reading too. I was twelve years old when that was written. The streets of my home town were dusty and just about every vehicle and smoke stack was a choker. Those things a much improved now, none the less global co2 volume increases. In fifty years this scenario may repeat its self and a reader will write things are better now but co2 volumes continue to increase.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt is good that mankind works to clean up the environment because it makes our earth a more enjoyable place to live regardless of whether we can put off the next ice age or not.
Great summary on the subject! .A good conclusion from it may be trying to reduce the amount of fuel spent on transport by bringing down the size of cars, and that of housing and industry by using isolation and more efficient heating and cooling systems. Fusion energy is on its way and the future may be not so bad. By the way: how about the decrease in gases solubility in water when sea temperature raises? Regards
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Science progresses, funeral by funeral." _ Max Planck
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisPlease no more CO2. Before the time CO2 really does become a problem mankind will have switched to something else, hopefully fusion. Not to save the planet which in the words of George Carlin "ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE", but because we really need the energy - hundreds and thousands of times more than we are currently using. I hope when this global warming hoax is finally totally exposed and Al Gore receives his true title of CON MAN OF THE MILLENIUM that your readers remember how willingly Scientific American promoted this HOAX. Your publication doesn't have the journalistic integrity of the National Enquirer.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisCO2 can't be a green house gas on earth because it absorbs infrared radiation at wavelengths that are not radiated by the earths surface. In the article it says CO2 absorbs infrared radiation in the range 13-17 microns - this corresponds to a surface temperature of about -100 celcius to -73 celcius - there is nowhere that cold on earth. Most of the earths surface is at about 17 celcius - this radiates at about 10.5 microns, CO2 is transparent to infrared radiation at that wave length.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisScience doesn't change, politics changes science. It's refreshing to see that back in 1959, studies involving CO2 and temperature were not biased by current global warming alarmists.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisLet's face it, the Earth are far more supreme an one step ahead of man. Let's focus on man's detrimental impact on the environment and not global warming.
From the Wiki link about John Tyndall:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"He was the first to correctly measure the infrared absorptive powers of the gases nitrogen, oxygen, water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, etc.
He concluded that water vapour is the strongest absorber of radiant heat in the atmosphere and is the principal gas controlling air temperature.
Absorption by the bulk of the other gases is negligible.
Prior to Tyndall it was widely surmised that the Earth's atmosphere has a Greenhouse Effect, but he was first to prove it.
The proof was that water vapor strongly absorbed infrared radiation."
Now - how are they going to tax water vapor?
First, John Tyndall stated that water vapor was the main gas blocking photons from escaping into space. CO2 was in the "bulk of the other gases" with negligible absorption. Thus, CO2 has a negligible effect on global warming.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisSecond, notice that CO2 blocks all 15-micron photons. This means that more CO2 cannot block more photons since they are all blocked already.
Third, we should not forget that photons in sunlight at 15-microns are also blocked, thus cooling the Earth's surface in the daytime.