Having another cargo carrier would provide a safety net for the ISS. That need was made clear when Dragon’s thrusters initially failed during the flight last week, almost preventing the spacecraft from docking with the station. But there is skepticism about whether competition will drive down prices. “This is a mixed-up crazy business and a small market that isn’t all that price sensitive,” says Henry Hertzfeld, a space-policy expert at George Washington University in Washington DC.

Factors such as political or military concerns often shape demand, he says. And reliability is as much of a concern as price. The market could grow: private space stations, orbiting fuel depots and asteroid-mining operations have all been proposed as future clients for commercial rockets. But for now, supplying the ISS and launching satellites are the major niches.

SpaceX is making inroads with the latter: it has contracts for launches with the US Air Force and commercial operators in Israel, Thailand, Luxembourg and Mexico. Orbital, too, wants to develop business beyond NASA, but it has not yet booked any launches. “Right now, we’re focused on getting the rocket launched,” says Frank Culbertson, executive vice-president of Orbital’s advanced-programs group. “Then we can talk to other customers.”

This article is reproduced with permission from the magazine Nature. The article was first published on March 5, 2013.

2 Comments

1. 1. SAReadersince67 06:14 PM 3/5/13

   Mythical creatures are not my specialty, so I have wondered why SpaceX names its rocket assembly "falcon" and its payload vehicle dragon, yet, a "dragon" spews fire (like a rocket), while a "falcon" flies with wings, carries "prey" in its beak or talons and stoops (falls rapidly to earth before regaining flight (like the payload vehicle which has wings of solar panels, carries food and packages, and falls to a parachute landing.) Can anyone tell me why the "naming" of the vehicles was seemingly reversed? Perhaps a pedantic point, but considering the technical prowess of the firm and its employees who have designed and flown these machines, why not get the PR right also?

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2. 2. Ruthenium in reply to SAReadersince67 10:45 AM 3/6/13

   The founder has stated that the Falcon vehicles were named after the Millennium Falcon. The Dragon spacecraft was named after "Puff the Magic Dragon." In other words, names were given that were meaningful to the designers, but not necessarily obvious to the public.

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