RING OF FIRE The "Ring of Fire", also called the Circum-Pacific belt, is the zone of earthquakes surrounding the Pacific Ocean.
Image: Courtesy USGS.gov
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In the past 15 months several devastating earthquakes have rumbled beneath the Pacific. In February 2010 a magnitude 8.8 temblor slammed central Chile; this past September a magnitude 7 quake walloped Christchurch, New Zealand, leading to a magnitude 6.3 aftershock this past February. The magnitude 9 megaquake that devastated Japan March 11 was the fifth largest in the last 110 years.
Some may wonder if these quakes are linked. A high-magnitude earthquake in Japan, one notion goes, might redistribute stress in Earth's crust, subsequently triggering another temblor in the following months or years—a quake that could even strike as far away as the western shores of the U.S. But the apparent clustering of major seismic events that take place thousands of kilometers apart is probably coincidental. That the Japanese and Chilean megaquakes occurred only 13 months apart is a statistical fluke, the chance alignment of two independent events. "Over great distances, the chances of stress transfer triggering a major quake are low if not nonexistent," says Chris Goldfinger, a marine geologist at Oregon State University in Corvallis.
Even though the recent Japanese temblor has not boosted seismic risk along the U.S. west coast, that doesn't mean residents there can rest easy. The best gauge of quake risk in the northeastern Pacific is the region's seismic history. Whereas scientific instruments designed to document quakes have been around barely more than a century, the interval between major quakes is much longer than that. Thus, scientists turn to the geologic record to determine the recurrence interval of ancient quakes by carbon-dating organic material in sheets of tsunami debris washed far inland or in the layered remnants of submarine landslides smothering the floors of undersea canyons.
The most hazardous swath of the northeastern Pacific lies along the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), a tectonic interface that parallels the coast and poses a seismic threat to cities such as Victoria, British Columbia; Portland, Ore.; and Eureka, Calif. At that subduction zone, the tiny Juan de Fuca plate slides eastward beneath the massive North American plate between 30 and 40 millimeters each year—an interface that, with minor exceptions, has apparently been locked for centuries. "This subduction zone stands out as the big elephant in the corner," Goldfinger says. "It sits quiet for hundreds of years, and then goes off all at once."
The last megaquake to strike this region, one estimated to have been a magnitude 9 or greater, occurred the evening of January 26, 1700. According to new analyses by Goldfinger and his colleagues, soon to be published in a U.S. Geological Survey report, that quake is just one of 19 such quakes to have slammed the region in the past 10,000 years. In the same interval at least 20 other temblors measuring between magnitudes 8 and 9 have occurred.
The big question is, when will the next "Big One" hit? "It's going to happen," Goldfinger says. "It's just a matter of narrowing down the timeline."
The team's new data suggest that the northern portion of the CSZ, which stretches from the middle of Vancouver Island to the Washington State–Oregon border, has a 10 to 15 percent chance of suffering a magnitude 8 or greater quake in the next 50 years. But the southern portion of the zone, stretching from the same border to California's Cape Mendocino, has higher risk, as much as a 37 percent chance of the same magnitude temblor over that same interval.
Although most people may consider southern California to be the most quake-prone region in the nation, Goldfinger says that the CSZ is arguably the biggest seismic hazard in the U.S. "We've got a long way to go to get that into the national consciousness," he notes.
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19 Comments
Add CommentCould deep oil drilling...BP? And the rest, be the root of the real problem. It's a word that they all seem to avoid...why? Seems like common sense that this would cause something bad.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisEarth renews her skin, the tectonic plates, constantly; she's just doing her job. Sooner or later, more earthquakes. Its nature,not an special or unique event.Volcanic eruptions also renew the skin of Mother Earth. What can we association of bacteria teeming on the skin do? Little or nothing.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe only reason researchers say these events are not related is because they can not model them to indicate co-relation using statistical analysis.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIn my early life I researched heavy metal contamination of surface soils, deliberately chose a sampling spot known to be an illegal dumping ground for industrial liquid waste. Got very high readings here. But statistically I could not prove that residential areas were more contaminated than pristine areas. A colleague who owned a farm, added her sample to the lot, when I got high Pb she sold her farm and moved on.
QI have always thought the same thing and I'm no scientist. seems to make sense though, you take what's inside the earths core, the top is going to crumble and shift below. I feel like there is an elephant in the room.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisNot likely. The volume of oil pumped per year at present is just over 1 cubic mile (3 billion barrels). This seems like a lot until you realize that the volume of the earth's crust is 325,000,000 cubic miles.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere'd be local effects, but most of that cubic mile of oil is not from deep drilling, and extraction is distributed around the world.
Bops, geologists have found links between oil extraction and earthquakes. On December 8, 2006, drilling deep into the crust set off an earthquake in Basel, Switzerland. Right now this same deep-drilling process is being done just north of San Francisco in a similarly fault-ridden area. The process of "fracking" (fracturing rock) used in gas extraction has also been shown to produce earthquakes, in addition to contaminating groundwater and the air.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere are several conditions that may contribute to a Mega quake and allow the discovery of it's epicenters location? Many of the Earth quakes taking place around the world now and in the future could be caused in part by gravitational waves increases as we near Galactic Precession, if the axis is not perfectly vertical the torque is applied by the force of gravity tending to tip it over. Gravity that keeps the Earth from tipping over creates stress on the crust of solid rock this could allow for large triggering Mega Quake events such as seen recently in Japan.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisRecently I took NASA's 3-D imaging photos of the San Andreas Fault line and added 6000 dpi compression to it, this enhanced the images showing hot spots in the fault or possible high stress points in the fault. These photos were sent to Ron Stewart of Texas who currently is teaching Physics at a University. We both concluded that these images showed high Stress points and could be considered evidence of a possible future quake initiation points for the California San Andreas fault line. I then postulated that our finding could give epicenter locations and should be further studied but no funds have been appropriated for continued work. I have theorized that a model could be built in short order that could allow supply quake data and high resolution 3-D imaging to give predictive evidence of quake epicenter and timeframe.
If we see continued Mega Quake activity or Volcanic activity around the world we may be able to deduce that we have not reached climax of these events until well after Precession.
Ron Nussbeck
They say that the only constant in the universe is change. So. For every action there is an equally positive or negative reaction.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAfter the earthquake in Japan I began to ask myself one question, what is it that has changed in the region of Japan. Japan sits on the area close to a rift and the earthquake has nudged Japan closer to it. It seems to me that Japan is like a car being pushed to the edge of a cliff, if the subduction zone is eating up oceanic landmass; would Japan go under too? The earthquake that shook the island nation pulled it 8 feet closer to the subduction zone, will it continue to draw Japan closer to it; if so Japan will likly experience more and greater earthquakes in the future.
Does the movement of one plate have effect on the surrounding plates? I don't think that an earthquake in Japan will cause an earthquake in Califonia. Although, all of the continental plates are "rubbing" against one another, is there a trasference of energy from one plate to another; or like sound waves through a medium?
Will there be another quake of this magnetude? We in the West seems to be more concerned about our own fates and wondering if it can happen here, although there are lessons to be learned from the diaster in Japan. I believe that a quake of that force will hit the west coast, it is just a matter of time. How will Japan survive this quake and how will it survive the next 9.0 or greater quake when it strikes. Japan needs to marshal it technological wizardry in to creating a earthquake/tsunami barrier that withstand a 10 quake; anything less is futile.
This is just a bit of personal speculation, so take it or leave it.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe Pacific plate in the north, between Japan and particularly the states of Washington and Oregon, is showing considerable activity. The big quake in this region raised the shoreline by about 2 1/2 meters around 25 years ago. It is my personal view that the Japanese quake will produce a corresponding quake on that American region, possibly of a similar magnitude, and within the next two years. The other quake was just a warm-up.
Quite right, jdiezcom; it's Earth recycling itself. When all tectonic activity ceases the planet will be dead.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe Switzerland earthquake was triggered by pumping water into the crust and raising pressure and the quake was very localized and small. Removing pressure by pumping out oil is far less likely to trigger a quake. Instead it leads to surface collapse and sink holes. Bad either way but two totally different types of events.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this@Tanirocker, @Bop
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe Basel earthquake of 2006 was magnitude 3.4 (and another six months later was 3.1) on the Richter scale. An earthquake of magnitude 9, as in Japan, is 16,000 times more powerful than a magnitude 3.4, and releases 270,000,000 times more energy.
Such earthquakes, in Basel caused by drilling for a geothermal site, are local, and are not caused by tectonic plates shifting. On a geological scale, drilling for oil is extremely minor. There may be (and likely will be) local effects, but nothing on the scale of the Japan earthquake.
There's plenty wrong with oil extraction and usage, but you can't blame BP et al for major earthquakes. This is one of many cases where "common sense" makes no sense.
Since the big one hit Japan on the 11th, there has been a near-steady series of 6th-magnitude aftershocks, as well as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in southeast Asia. (There's also been volcanic activity ongoing at Kilaueu, but Hawaii rests on a hot spot.)
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAs I write this, one of my apps (verified by the IRIS Seismic Monitor) has alerted me to a 5.3-mag quake just off Japan, originating in the same area as the others, and another 4.4.-mag quake in the vicinity of the Fiji Islands. Within the past 24 hours, there have been 4th-mag quakes just off Oregon and in central Alaska.
The possibility of danger to the Pacific Northwest can't be discounted. There is indeed a large chance that the vicinity of Oregon could be hit next, and the toll in life and property could be staggering.
Yet I remember the 9th-mag Alaskan quake in 1964. . .and I wonder if it might be next, instead. . .
The reason for, "but no funds have been appropriated for continued work." is the USGS and Geologist in general aren't interested in "prediction". In the last forty years they haven't committed one dime to prediction. I think your on the right road. Since tectonic plates sit on a "large" pool of molten rock that the release of lava through eruptions plays sufficant role in earth quake pridiction. Don't give up but don't expect help from the "global trotting USGS".
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhen you look at the Pacific plate and remember the events of the last four years the Cascadia subduction zone does seem the most likely candidate for a subduction quake it has been very silent. How big the event will be can't be predicted because the USGS won't spend money on "prediction". The Cascadia fault is over due by about fifty years and may not happen for another fifty but I sure won't want to be walking the shore when it does. Read in Popular science that they are going to build elevated building for tsunami safety.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisBy the way FYI did you know that dogs and other animals can detect that an earth quake is about to happen. I think the USGS uses the wrong wave length dectectors.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOnce they recieve any signal the quake has already hapopened. Good luck.
Joseph2237,
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou have a point, the USGS is not interested in Earth Quake predictions? The reason maybe more sinister than one would think, by giving accurate predictions of quake locations property values would plummet in that area along with abandonment of some properties. It may even lead to wholesale evacuations, cities, states and governments would never allow predictive evidence to be released? It maybe better that some die than release conclusive evidence, sad but it maybe true? NASA's 3-D photos of San Andreas fault are spectacular when compression DPI enhancement of 6000 to 10,000% is added, we then added Thermo enhancements which showed heat radiating from high pressure fault compressions. It's not rocket science, it's just having the right equipment to view the fault ridges contact points (Pacific plate, NorthAmerican plate) at high friction zones. These zones were not visible in NASA's image until maximum DPI and Thermo imaging was introduced. I have Theorized Precession will drive Earth to "Tectonic/Volcanic Peak" that will be reached in 2014.
some of these comments are most illuminating. If we were to be regarding our species' passage over the face of this planet; what stands out? - both a dearth of scientific thought and the profusion of scientistic fantasy -among other faults; a confusion of cause and effect re:deep drilling, the worry that continents (or Japan) may be prematurely subducted, incorrectly categorizing the observable effects of 'fracking' as more geological rather than local-
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFantasy is a wonderful thing, when it is not out of place - out of place, it is like a small rug placed at the top of a stairs- cute for a moment then a good way to take an unintentionally quick trip down the stairs
it's not that i wonder where some of you get your ideas, it's that i wonder how you can continue to think them - do you never re-think anything you come up with?? Lots of things sound reasonable, until you start to think a little bit about it.
would you try that please? Don't believe the hype- there is too such a thing as a stupid question -it's the one you ask without thinking.
Indications have arisen pointing to the possibility of a 7.5 or greater earthquake to occur in the North Western region of the United States, or Mexico. In absence of any intelligent life within the present selection of presidential candidates, Summer Shields of the LaRouche slate addresses the issue and presents clear solutions.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://larouchepac.com/node/21328
1) Prof. Sergey Pulinets, researching earthquake precursors at the Institute of Applied Geophysics and the Moscow Center for Ionosphere Monitoring was interviewed by BueSo organizer Daniel Grasenack-Tente at the 2011 European Geosciences Conference this past week. Pulinets discusses the necessity of a multi-parameter approach to earthquake forecasting--from crust-related precursors, to the atmosphere, and the ionosphere.
http://www.larouchepac.com/node/17944