COUNTING ON PAPER: Harnessing online technology is one way the Census Bureau is looking to update the data collection process.
Image: Frederick County Government
The Internet Age is upon us. But rather than circulating online, the 23rd Decennial Census stuck with the tried-and-true, and flooded the U.S. Postal Service March 16 through 18 with surveys en route to more than 120 million households nationwide. The 10-question form, which probes for demographic information such as age, sex and race, will help determine how more than $400 billion will be allocated to communities across the country. Citizens and noncitizens alike are required by law to complete the form and mail it back to the U.S. Census Bureau in the accompanying prepaid envelope. That's a lot of mail, but that's not all of it.
In case the mail at your household gets picked up and thrown into the "we'll get to it later" pile, the Census Bureau took the extra step this year of sending out a "heads-up" letter in advance—a "state-of-the-art practice in survey research," according to Census Director Robert Grove's blog—to encourage participation. And in case that's not enough paper for you, an extra nudge was mailed out the week of March 22. This might sound excessive, but the mail-out/mail-back response rate for the 2000 census was only 65 percent, and the missing data has to be collected in person by enumerators at a cost of about $57 per household. So the nudge "more than pays for itself," Groves says.
Mandated by the U.S. Constitution and developed in 1790 as a cornerstone of representative democracy, the census was initially carried out by trained enumerators taking a physical head count across the country. The move to the mail-out/mail-back survey in 1970 was driven by cost. But the 2010 survey’s $14.5-billion price tag has the Bureau considering a next-gen cost-effective replacement. Three in four people living in the U.S. have Internet access, according to Nielsen NetRatings. Going online and paper free could cut the printing and mailing costs of $75 million and $59 million, respectively.
Alternative data collection methods, including digital ones, will be a major topic of discussion at a 2020 Decennial Census advisory committee meeting set for April at the Bureau's headquarters in Suitland, Md., according to assistant director of the Decennial Census Dan Weinburg. "For 2020 we're thinking about a sea change in the way we collect data," he says. "Right now, you have to fill out a form and send it in, and if you don't we'll send someone to your house. We want to make as many ways to respond as possible." Weinburg says the Bureau hopes to maximize self-response by developing "a generic methodology that would work on almost any device," including smart phones, which are predicted to be ubiquitous in the U.S. a decade from now. To keep costs down, "we have to think dramatically about transitions technology," he says.
Planning for the 2020 count started in 2008. Weinburg says that going completely electronic by then is unlikely because of the amount of controlled experimentation that has to be done before the change could be made. But he hopes to keep the cost per household on par with 2010 until a new, cheaper strategy can be implemented.
Smaller samples
Another obvious way to cut costs would be to count a smaller sample and extrapolate the data to the greater population—a common practice in the social sciences. This method forms the basis of the Census Bureau's American Community Survey—a more detailed form sent annually to a representative sample that replaced the long-form decennial census survey that used to go out to one in six households.
But sampling introduces a new type of error on top of the existing ones (omissions, nonresponses and measurement errors), says David Swanson, chair of the Census Advisory Committee of Professional Associations, which advises the Census Bureau on issues related to improving the accuracy and reliability of the enumeration process. Besides, in mandating the census, the Constitution states that congressional districts have to be apportioned according to population, so actual enumeration (even if it's not door to door) has to occur.
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7 Comments
Add CommentAlthough 75% of the american population may have internet service. The Authors and a great many people in charge miss the point that the internet has not reached the rural areas of the U.S. , other than dial up. plus not everyone now is computer literate enough to fill out an online form.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhile extrapolation of 'representative' samples is commonly used in the social sciences as the article states, it's also used in the 'highly reliable science' of public opinion polls. Don't make me tell the story of the telephone poll predicting President Dewey's election.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisSince census data is used by our national government for purposes such as allocating seats in congress and distributing taxes back to the taxpayers for designated purposes, I support the continued full population survey.
My address was also selected for the more in depth Department of Commerce survey, for which they mailed me a letter, two postcards and two surveys. Really has to make you wonder what they were thinking of.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhile we're at counting, let's collect a blood sample from everybody!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThen we can count DNA, too.
Name and address is all they get from me.
The only Constitutionally supported activity is enumeration for the purpose of apportionment of Congressional districts. If they left it at that, instead of asking other questions for social engineering purposes, they would probably have a mush greater response than they do now. What part of 1 person lives here don't they understand?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisssco00 - Well put - I agree, except that without census data they probably couldn't figure out how to get any of our hard earned taxes back to us and our neighbors for programs we think we can't live without.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI just filled out my census form. Did it 10 years ago too. And 10 years before that, etc. I missed the "social engineering" part. Was that in every form or just certain ones that need it?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisp.s. This year I was able to go back to the US 1900 Census archives and found the names and locations for my grandparents, aunts and uncles. I'm sure glad they answered those questions. Now I can trace my family's roots to Europe at least.