A farmer inspects his drought-damaged maize crop in Illinois — just one of several states affected by scarce June rainfall.
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From Nature magazine
Scorching temperatures and scarce rainfall has left large swathes of the United States in drought, with the 'breadbasket states', such as Iowa and Indiana, among the worst affected. The extreme weather conditions have wreaked havoc with the nation’s crop production, particularly maize (corn) and soya beans. Given that the country is the world’s top exporter of maize and one of the largest growers of soya beans, Nature explains how the drought could have ramifications for global food supplies, and what science is doing to help.
How extreme are the weather conditions?
Average temperatures on the US mainland in June peaked at 21.8 °C, which is 1.1 °C above the twentieth-century average, according to the National Climatic Data Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Silver Spring, Maryland. The June temperatures meant that the first half of 2012 was one of the warmest on record, and contributed to the warmest 12-month period in the United States since records began in 1895. On average, just 5.8 centimetres of rain fell in June — 1.6 cm less than normal, making June 2012 the tenth driest on record, says NOAA. As of 3 July, more than half of the 48 contiguous US states had seen drought conditions, the largest percentage for the past 12 years, according to the US Drought Monitor service, run by the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska.
And there is not much relief in sight. Dry weather is expected to continue into August in the southern to central Plains, across the Gulf coast and along the west coast, according to NOAA.
How much damage has been done?
On 18 July, nearly 1,300 counties across 29 states were declared “natural disaster areas” by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) as a result of crop damage and loss caused by the drought and heat.
The USDA also cut its maize and soya bean estimates for the year on 11 July. The projected US maize yield is down 1.3 tonnes per hectare to 3.7 tonnes per hectare, a total of 45 million tonnes less than was predicted in June. Estimates of total US soya bean production are also down by 4.2 million tonnes to 83 million tonnes compared with June, contributing to a sizeable overall drop in predicted US oilseed production for 2012–13.
“Persistent and extreme June dryness across the central and Eastern corn belt and extreme late June and early July heat from the central Plains to the Ohio River Valley have substantially lowered yield prospects across most of the major growing regions,” says the July issue of the USDA's monthly report, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
How have the crop losses affected prices?
The United States exports 53% of the world's maize and almost 43% of soya beans globally, so any change in the US supply of these crops will affect prices worldwide. The price of maize last week hit a record US$8.16 per bushel ($321 per tonne), and traders think that prices could rise above $9 per bushel by early August unless there is a significant change in the weather. That seems unlikely at the moment, says Maximo Torero, a food-market and trade analyst at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington DC. Prices of soya beans are also up by almost 30% since the beginning of June, and by almost 60% since the end of last year, he says.
How does this compare to the food crisis in 2008?
The prices of soya beans and maize have passed the 2008 peak. But wheat, rice and oil prices have not matched their 2008 highs, so that will help to stave off a similar crisis, says Torero. There is also no sign of the export restrictions that were put in place in 2008 that further exacerbated prices.
Who will feel the effects most?
The direct impact of the increase in maize and soya bean prices will be felt in net importing countries such as Mexico and China. The price hikes are unlikely to affect sub-Saharan Africa directly, because people there tend to consume locally produced maize and are not major consumers of soya beans, says Torero.
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14 Comments
Add CommentDoes anyone know what percent of world food supply,in calories, or tonnage of grain, or any other quantitative metric, does the U.S corn or soy crop represent?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFolks, in the U.S. the crops are called "Corn" and "Soy Beans" not Maize and Soya. Please stick with what American farmers have called their crops for generations....
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Nature" is a British magazine, not American. We probably wouldn't call their crops maize or soya in our publications, why should they be any different?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI absolutely cannot fathom why the folks who are in charge of this whole scenario are not utilizing the weather modification technology that we've been dumping money into for decades to develop. All one has to do is a simple search for "weather modification", and a plethora of results will be returned for organizations that can do just that: make it rain!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt is ridiculous ... no, let me re-phrase that: it is shameful, to allow droughts to persist when the technology is readily available to alleviate such a crisis. And please, don't any of you insult my intelligence by claiming such an idea is unwarranted; or that it has no foundation. Do so, and I won't hesitate to guide you in the right direction to back what I'm saying to be true.
"All one has to do is a simple search for "weather modification"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisGoogle search: "Weather Modification" 846,000 results
Google search: "fairies" 52,200,000 results
I think the drought is due to global cooling. Since systems resist change, the Earth is resisting global cooling by reducing its cloud cover. Fewer clouds reflect less heat into space. But fewer clouds means that transport of moisture from the equator towards the Artic is reduced. This reduction is the cause of the drought.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisArtic ice is disappearing due to a drought in the Artic. Global cooling reduces snowfall in the Artic since less moisture is transported. Less snow means that glaciers are shrinking. When global warming does occur then we might enter another ice age, which is the more normal condition for Earth. Global warming will cause greater snowfall and thus glacier expansion.
We should be measuring cloud cover. The drought should make us aware that scientists have misinterpreted the small increase in measured average surface temperature. Scientists have ignored a shrinking cloud cover, which is actually proof that global cooling is happening!
Instead of bailing out (paying extortion) to the Banks or funding a foolish 'Starship', we could and should(IMNSHO)build a nationwide irrigation system. An Interstate Highway for water system. Not only could it be used for drought mitigation, but also for flood mitigation if designed properly. This, we need. High speed trains from LA to Las Vegas? Not so much. As a nation, we really should consider toning down the corruption and amping up the practicals, at least for a little while, anyway.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMore practical would be to not grow monocultures of plants that need a lot of water in areas that don't have a lot of water.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOr not devote 30% of our corn crop to ethanol, so that even when there is a drought, there is still more than enough to eat.
BWTrainer...a big thumbs up.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisRe other solutions. No. One doesn't spendf hundreds of billionbs to build MORE ittigation to divert even more of the nation's water supply. Agriculture is a big enough blight on the ecology as it is.
Re comment on 'corn' vs 'maize'...no wonder americans have a reputation for being myopic when it comes to viewing the world outside their borders.
@BWTrainer and geojellyroll: My solution is not just irrigation but a water management system. No matter what the crops are that are planted, too much water/not enough water is a challenge as old as mankind. Climate change or not, the environment is everchanging, seldom "average". As far as Agriculture being a blight on the ecology goes, feel free to explain that to the millions upon millions of people that have come to rely on that food supply. Tell them "Yes, we know your children will starve without those fantastic yeilds,but, you know, it's just not natural to grow 10,000 acres of soybeans in one spot." I'm sure they'll understand. As far as corn vs. maize goes, it's called corn in the US. This is where the drought is that this article is refering to. It would only seem appropriate to use terms associated with the locale in question.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAs far as "weather modification" goes: Wouldn't it be easier, safer and more harmonious to work WITH Mother Nature instead of insisting to take control? Seems foolish to interfere with something billions of years old as if "WE" know better. IMNSHO, I say "accept the Earth" not enslave it.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou called it, pal. 846,000 return results on "Weather Modification". Now explain why the technology that has been available for decades, is not being utilized.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisBurnerjacks: certainly Mother Nature is the ideal way to go - but the article stated that as of July 18th, nearly 1300 counties across 29 states were declared "Natural Disaster Areas" as a result of crop
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisdamage and loss caused by the drought and heat. Add this to the other ramifications of this unusual drought:
"Prices of soya beans are up by almost 30%; and by almost 60% since the end of last year .." and;
"The projected US maize yield is down a total of 45 million tonnes less than was predicted in June."
And, look at their solution - to have corporations such as "Pioneer Hi-Bred" and "Monsanto" commercialize "genetically engineered" varieties! Now, that's fooling with Mother Nature! Genetically engineered foods are another whole can of worms that I won't get off topic here and go into - but let it suffice to say that we'd be far better off seeding the clouds to encourage rain than we would be eating fake food lacking in natural nutrients. Heck, we're consuming that now, so it would hardly matter; in actuality.
The article is ended with a statement from U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack; who says,"If I had a rain prayer or a rain dance I could do, I would do it." DUH! If he does his job correctly, there is no doubt in my mind that he is well-aware that the ability to make it rain is readily available .... the fact that they do not use the technology that the government's money paid to develop; nor do they even mention it; is unarguably extraordinarily questionable, no?
How does this grab ya:
"Weather modification, commonly known as Cloud Seeding, is the application of scientific technology that can enhance a cloud's ability to produce precipitation. Weather Modification, Inc., is on the forefront of scientific technology to maximize water availability worldwide. Application of scientific concepts and extensive scientific experimentation has proven that cloud seeding increases the amount of precipitation."
"Whether you are looking for a small operation or a full program, Weather Modification, Inc. can ensure your cloud seeding project runs smoothly. From Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approved aircraft installations, configured for aerial cloud seeding and cloud physics, to ground-based seeding equipment and training, Weather Modification, Inc., has the equipment, experience and knowledge you need." (Source: Weather Modification, Inc.)
Need I say more?
Collette, you do raise some solid points. I assume you intend to imply that by NOT cloud seeding, the intent is to strengthen the GMO industry's hand and further allow entities such as Monsanto to to tighten the stranglehold on seed supply. Quite possible indeed. The world of backroom politics and lobbyists is a dark, evil and ugly one at that. Is that the reality? I don't know, but I sure wouldn't put it out of the question. Now, back to ME!... My casual observation is that there IS rain and there IS water. Just more than is comfortable here and not enough there. Once again, my scenario is "water management". It gathers, it stores and it transports to where it's needed and removes it from where it's "overly abundant". Cloud seeding is normaly done by dispersing silver iodide into existing clouds to "coax" rain from said clouds. Sounds like more misguided pollution to me. Doesn't make clouds. Does enhance the likelyhood that preexisting clouds do drop rain. You have to have the clouds first. Might help drought, doesn't help flooding. Doesn't put %$#loads of people to work either. My idea DOES. The only one that I know of that assured us HE could 'steer" the weather was a cantakerous old man by the name of Nikola Tesla. He ain't talkin'
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