ELECTRIC VEHICLE: Automakers are coming out with more and more electric or hybrid vehicles but, so far, the cars have not proved popular.
Image: Flickr/jurvetson
Electric drive vehicles have the potential to wean the United States off foreign oil and drive it toward an era of zero-emissions transportation, but that potential is being pushed into the more distant future by the ominous fact that most consumers aren't buying them.
Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, make up less than 1 percent of the U.S. car market. Add in hybrids, which are selling at a much faster rate, and electrified vehicle sales are still only around 3 percent.
One of automakers' greatest concerns in meeting the Obama administration's ambitious new fuel economy standards is that consumers will continue to steer clear of alternative automobile technologies, which come at a steep price premium.
The regulation completed last month requires automakers to double the average light-duty fleet fuel economy to 54.5 mpg by 2025. The rule itself is technology-neutral, but the aggressive target pressures car companies to make and sell all types of electrified vehicles, a category that includes hybrids, plug-in electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles.
Given how challenging these technologies are to produce and market, many automakers have asked, "If we build them, will buyers come?" Others have been more eager to get in the game.
"I get really frustrated with the automakers that say, 'We can't sell [electric vehicles]. No one will buy them,'" said Diarmuid O'Connell, vice president of corporate and business development at Tesla Motors. "The truth is that even in the darkest hour of the auto industry, one thing that our domestic automotive [original equipment manufacturers] and other OEMs were really good at is marketing and selling our vehicles.
"If you try hard enough, you can do it," he said in an interview.
More than 60 models to choose from
More than 40 hybrid vehicle models are available in the United States, and more than 20 PEVs will be available in the next two years, prompted by policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
In addition to the federal fuel economy targets, automakers selling in the lucrative California market must also meet the zero-emissions vehicle, or ZEV, mandate, which requires PEVs and fuel cell vehicles to make up about 15 percent of the fleet by 2025. The state aims to have low- and zero-emissions vehicles make up 90 percent of its fleet by 2050.
John Krafcik, president and CEO of Hyundai Motor America, said in a recent speech that his company already boasts a fleet average of 37.6 mpg. Still, to meet the ZEV mandate, a third of Hyundai's sales will have to be fuel cells, battery electrics and plug-in hybrids by 2025, he said.
It took conventional hybrid vehicles 15 years to claim a solid wedge of the U.S. automotive market. PEVs could take an equally long, if not longer, time to scale up.
The price tag is a major hurdle. A survey conducted by consulting firm Pike Research found that consumers would pay $23,750 for a PEV comparable to a $20,000 gasoline-powered car. The 2012 Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid, Honda Fit EV and Ford Focus Electric are all well above $30,000 and still outside most consumers' budgets even with federal incentives.
Pike Research expects the cost of lithium-ion batteries -- the primary reason PEVs are so expensive -- will drop by 5 percent this year and 10 percent next year as more battery plants come online, bringing greater efficiency and more competition to drive down costs. But the firm expects the price tag on PEVs won't fall below $18,000 before the end of the decade.
PEVs also cause range anxiety, even though most American commuters drive well within their limit. Charging infrastructure is expanding, but slowly, and batteries can't recharge fast enough to compete with the quick fill-up at the gas station.
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20 Comments
Add CommentI would buy an electric car if I had the money to do so. For me, buying a car is a capital investment and I buy assuming that I will have the car for at least 10 years. My average so far has been about 12 years. I am on my fourth car right now.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf I am expected to jump in and buy a car every year just because the latest one is out, you will be very disappointed in me. I do intend for my next car to me an all electric simply because I am tired of making the oil companies richer and richer. The rest of us have to tighten our belts but they just keep posting record profits.
One thing that I would like to see, besides a charging infrastructure, is a solar/wind based home charging system that would reduce or eliminate the strain on the electric utilities. I think the car companies can market these as optional accessories to the electric car.
The comments of Diarmuid O'Connell (vice president of corporate and business development at Tesla Motors) are irrelevant. No one is going to upsell me to a $70,000 car with any amount of sales and marketing. I could not possibly afford such a car.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOur next car (to be purchased in the next 6 months) will be a plug-in hybrid that gets a minimum of 50 mpg for long distance, and considerable more for local travel. Cost and comfort are also issues.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisrvrieger,
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisDo you have a fundamental misunderstanding of hybrid technology? First off, the big savings in a hybrid is in local stop and go driving where the electric drivetrain is used a lot. Long highway driving (which is what I'm sure you mean by 'long distance') efficiency comes from it being a small, light, low-wind-resistant car with a small engine; Not from the electric part of the drivetrain at all (because it is not in use). If cost is an issue, you're looking in the wrong place. As the article detailed, the batteries are a very expensive component.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisLast year I purchased a new Toyota Corolla for under 15 thousand.
That xtra 10 thousand or whatever for a hybid is not out of thin air. About 20% of that extra is energy used in the development, production and marketing of that vehicle.
i just purchased a new Toyotsa Cprolla for 15 thpusand.
In a series hybrid or series-parallel hybrid the electric drive motors are used full-time, including highway driving. The benefit of hybrids on highway travel is lower than for city travel, but still significant. Since the Electric Motor & battery supplies acceleration power, you can use a smaller, more efficient, constant rpm engine, like an Atkinson or a Turbine. And constant rpm makes emission control much easier allowing once again for greater efficiency. Some hyper-efficient fuels, like Methanol, work best with a fairly constant rpm engine. And the hybrid still captures energy from going downhill and slowing down after passing a vehicle, or slowing down at a curve.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAs a california resident having to pay the 400% tax on tier 5 electric rates, there is no possible way a PEV is ever going to be useful or cost effective. Hybrids would be better but still not worth it.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisGenerally, if something requires massive government subsidies to bring it to market, then whatever that product is, likely has no real value. If these cars had real value, then they would not require government subsidies.
If anything, government subsidies and involvement in the PEV and Hybrid markets are likely causing a slow down in progress to a better vehicle if not out right preventing research into more efficient and economical ideas. How is this? Well government rarely backs the right thing and in general the bad ideas are funded and artificially kept going long past when the idea should have been dropped.
Take the internet, a military invention that was a great idea and required no subsidy at all to move it into the private market and eventually across the world. How about the iPhone a great idea, which spawned an entire market of smart phones and not one of them required a subsidy to get them moving.
Basically there will be minimal progress to find more efficient fuels, alternative energy, better vehicles and something people can use as long as the government continues with subsidies, government grants, government regulations, government involvement and government control. If politicians could manage ideas like this, they would not be politicians.
".. to pay the 400% tax on tier 5 electric rates, there is no possible way a PEV is ever going to be useful or cost effective.."
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisNonsense. California is a basket case because Big Oil/NG and their Big Green subsidiary bought the politicians and pushed through unbelievable Renewable Portfolio Standards, pushing Electricity rates sky-high. Of course they can get those measures passed in referendums through paid-for mass media saturation and the average gullible voter thinks the Utility has a few big switches - one marked Renewables and all they have to do is flip on that switch and instant Renewable power.
At 4 miles per kwh even a ludicrous 16 cents a kwh is 4 cents per mile for an EV. At $4/gal for gasoline that works out to 100 miles per gal. No other vehicle than a PHEV or BEV will get those kind of low costs. And even in California nightime charging is much lower than 16 cents per kwh. True cost of nightime baseload electricity delivered is < 5 cents per kwh, nix the Wind & Solar Big Oil promoted Scams. And Gasoline/Diesel ain't gonna remain at $4/gal - $10/gal is coming. And with battery costs rapidly falling the EV drivetrain is the future, and the ICE powered drivetrain will disappear just as it has in industry. The ICE will be relegated to genset application. A high efficiency Genset to charge batteries for a full EV drivetrain.
Government subsidies are indeed a big issue, 90% of government subsidies are entirely a result of Corporate & Super-Rich Lobbies, Payola & Corruption. In some cases, assuming politicians who admit they don't know anything about tech and don't talk to lobbyists but instead to engineers who actually know something, and invest wisely it can be worth $trillions in economic benefit.
South Korea subsidized and targeted shipbuilding in the 70's now they build 90% of the large ships in the World. And built highly successful Electronics and Auto industry and Nuclear Industry from scratch through huge subsidies. But of course, they had politicians who actually cared about their country and had some common sense. No Solyndria SCAM payola/lobby specials there. And the French Nuclear program was highly successful in the 70's & 80's.
Right now the biggest subsidy by far is the US Military which is little more than a private police force working to protect the interests of Big Oil. $4 Trillion for the last Iraq Oil War and the Afghanistan Natural Gas War.
And the Internet was developed by subsidized CERN, not the military.
I'd love to have a really economical zero emissions car. I would also like to have enough money get my teeth taken care of and maybe repair the driveway. But we can't and given that we are retired, we will NEVER have enough money. If the price of the cars isn't low enough for those most likely to want them, you have a serious disconnect. The prices are so far beyond our budget it's not even remotely possible. Pity.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf they simply offered a combustion engine driven car that took advantage of the tech already available...like get rid of the serpentine belt like European autos are doing. Run all those components with electric motors and quit dragging the engine down. Offer lighter models - not everyone is so insecure they must drive an SUV behemoth. I'd gladly put up with more road noise if it trimmed off 500lbs. There are still ways to deal with that issue.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI don't have any desire to buy a car that runs strictly on batteries. What happens after 4 years or so and those batteries run out faster like your cell phone does and every other battery does. Not a cheap alternative to just replace.
Tesla is developing this market, even if the big car companies are not. They have plans to get the price down to the 30K range in a few years.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhat else can help?
Forget CAFE standards. Just tax petroleum fuels much higher than now. John Anderson proposed this in 1980. Conservatives should support this because it brings the free market to bear on the problem of switching to renewables.
Get an EV race circuit similar to NASCAR started. Or get NASCAR to agree to rules that permit EVs to compete in their races. This gets the cars out in front of the mass market. Once an EV wins something like the Indy or Datona races, you'll see a BIG jump in sales.
And yes the price needs to come down, and it will.
"..switching to renewables.."
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAre you kidding me? Do you want to kill the Electric Vehicle by hamstringing it with hyper-expensive, intermittent Wind & Solar electricity? A ridiculous idea. You think people should charge their vehicles in daytime with Solar, when other energy consumption dominates, a crazy notion? Or charge whenever the Wind happens to be blowing, often Zip for weeks, especially during power demand peaks. Don't be ridiculous.
EV's, EV charging works best, in fact works exceedingly well to enhance the efficiency and reduce the cost of solid, reliable baseload Coal & Nuclear Electricity. The practical and expandable Electricity choices. Coal though gives little improvement in emissions over just using an ICE vehicle so the reality is EV charging is the PERFECT MATCH for cheap, reliable, 24/7, baseload Nuclear Power. It's a NO-BRAINER.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisBy 2025 gas will be $15/gal in today's $ so 90% of all vehicles will be fueled by something else.
My custom EV's cost 25% of a similar gas one to run even now.
Medium tech, not CF composites unibodies will cut vehicle weight by 50% including the battery pack, thus costs. Lithium batts will be much lower soon. Already I buy them retail for $250/kwhr small cells into packs and $400kwhr for large cell packs. There are no expensive materials needed as they cost between $2- $10/lb and only need 22lbs/kwhr. Because of these EV's costs will soon be lower than an ICE as they are far more simple.
EV's and hybrid while costing slightly more, though far less than their true competition like BMW's, other high tech vehicles, will get most of that back in resale as Prius' do.
Semi's will go to NG hybrids as most other trucks and large cars, loikely be plug in hybrids.
Myself I just chuckle watch fools pay $40-$100/week in gas which costs me just a few $.
Most EV owners already have solar or wind charging so that is already here.
I am a college student and my family don't own a car. But according to my observation, electric vehicles are not common in my country. I have never seen anyone who owns electric cars except in parks or universities, which are used for tourism. They said that electric vehicles are electric-consuming, very expensive in other words. And there is no infrastructures for charging outside.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMaybe if some day government make a policy that encourage people to use electric vehicles, and stations for charging occur everywhere, electric vehicles can be more and more pervasive
The problem with electric cars is gas is too cheap. The tax does not even cover highway maintenance. It also doesn't cover tax breaks for the oil companies, spill clean up, related health cost or our military protecting middle east oil fields.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWe prefer autos built in the 1960's and 1970's, and will NOT buy any sort of "obamacar".
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOne criticism of electric cars is that they often just replace one source of carbon pollution with another. Instead of a combustion engine that burns gasoline, you get a plug-in vehicle that depends on electricity from burning coal.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this<a href="http://ratemytradie.net.au/electrician-perth"><b>Perth Electrical</b></a>.
I had always assumed (incorrectly, it would seem) that people generally understood that simply switching to electric vehicles would not immediately remedy the vehicular carbon emissions problem.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://ratemytradie.net.au/electrician-perth
From Autotrader.co.uk:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this£5,091
Chevrolet Matiz 0.8 S 5dr 2009
Fuel consumption (urban) 40.9 mpg
Fuel consumption (extra urban) 67.3 mpg
Fuel consumption (combined) 54.3 mpg
0 - 62 mph 18.2 seconds
Top speed 90 mph
Cylinders 3
Valves 6 v
Engine power 50 bhp
Engine torque 52 lbs/ft
It's a 5 seat car 800cc, and meets the US 2025 economy requirements TODAY. But, would the average U.S. citizent accept it. They're very popular in the UK and Europe.
Our current gas price is £1.37/$2.21 per liter
(Currency conversion from xe.com at 17:47 9/30/2012)
In principle, the basic idea of buying those new technology cars is wrong. The customer should be invited to a lease-buy system where he does not own the car per se yet he pays a monthly fixed fee which considers the amortizations, profit for the leasing Institution and other taxes involved. The contract is set up for an 10 year therm and there are exceptions for the eventual change of make or type therefore the customer can jump positions if desired. The Leasing institution takes the vehicle back in due time, releases it if good enough, replaces in any event during its "lifetime" and recycles the car correctly when considered un-useable and/or -profitable.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThis will relieve the "buyer" from expending good personal Capital with a Dead Mass of materials just for calling this "driveable junk" his own .