Editor's note: This Q&A is a part of a survey conducted by Scientific American of executives at companies engaged in developing and implementing non–fossil fuel energy technologies.

What technical obstacles currently most curtail the growth of solar power? What are the prospects for overcoming them in the near future and the longer-term?
Right now, homeowners and business owners interested in solar systems are concerned about two things—performance and reliability—as these factors play an important role in a system's return on investment. From a panel standpoint, the silicon solar panels on the market are just about as efficient as they can be, as the industry has labored intensively over the years to increase energy yield. Yet there are several other system components—we call them part of the balance of system—that can threaten the performance and reliability of a system and decrease the amount of energy harvested. Hardly any time and energy had been spent to improve the racking, wiring and electrical grounding elements.

Last year we introduced our Andalay system, which was the first major improvement in solar system design in more than three decades. As the first integrated solar solution, Andalay incorporates all the wiring, racking and electrical grounding elements into the panels themselves. Compared to traditional solar systems with a jumble of parts from various companies, Andalay's prefabricated panels decreased the parts used in panel installation by about 70 percent. The resulting streamlined process—our panels snap together like LEGO bricks—drastically reduced the room for human error that can compromise the integrity of a system. We've continued to improve the balance of system pieces to boost our system's performance and reliability. When you are designing a solar power system, the devil is in the technical details—many systems today still use 30-cent zip ties to hold together the exposed wires of a $30,000 system. Recently, we announced several upgrades, which included new stainless steel racking mounts and stainless steel clips that hold together exposed wires.

Efforts like these—and we are seeing a lot of new companies starting to stress balance of system improvements—will speed along solar adoption.

Are there obstacles to scaling up solar power to serve a larger national or global customer base?
Since I started my business in 2001, I've seen demand for solar power increase dramatically from year to year. Now that we are coming out of a period of silicon shortage into one of silicon oversupply, and we have a manufacturing infrastructure already in place, the residential installation industry is in a great position to meet a larger national customer base. Wherever the sun is shining and incentives are strong, we as an industry will be able to meet demand.

The only obstacle currently preventing the continued growth in the commercial sector is limited financing. Because many of these projects are so huge—often in the hundreds of kilowatts—many businesses need forms of financial assistance from big banks. With those lines of credit currently seized, moving these projects forward is challenging.

Can the existing energy infrastructure handle growth in solar power? Or does that, too, need further modification?
Our nation stands to benefit from an abundance of clean, renewable solar energy, and rooftop solar energy is an immediate in-grid answer. The problem is, the current energy infrastructure is outdated and the grid can't fully enable a greater demand for distributed sources of renewable energy. At Akeena Solar, we are encouraged by the proposed federal stimulus package with the inclusion of $11 billion to update our electrical grid [Editor's note: This survey was submitted before the stimulus bill was signed into law], even though we know much more will be needed to fulfill the promise of renewables as a viable source of our energy mix in the U.S. A "smarter" electrical grid is critical to shift to renewable sources like solar, helping America move to a low-carbon economy.
 
Given the current economic crisis, can your industry get the necessary capital (from public or private sources) to adequately finance its growth?
As I mentioned before, in our current economic climate, there is not as much financing available for large-scale commercial projects. Nevertheless, increasing federal investment and last year's extension of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) are encouraging, especially for homeowners, as they make solar energy more affordable. As part of the current package working its way through Congress, the solar energy community is calling for those tax credits to become refundable—meaning businesses could take advantage of the tax credit regardless of their tax liability. This is an important step to help spur development in our industry. With strong public policy in place and increasing demand as a result of ever increasing electricity bills, you can expect to see a capital flow to solar power projects in the near future.

From a strategic standpoint, which is the bigger competitor for solar: incumbent coal, oil and gas technologies or other alternative energy technologies?
The major goal for solar and all renewable sources of energy is one in the same—grid parity—and right now cheaper, dirty sources of energy like coal and oil are our biggest competitors. Luckily, policymakers nationwide are realizing that what is cheap in the short term is not necessarily in the best interest of the U.S. from a financial and security standpoint in the long term. Electricity costs are continually increasing. And if you look at peak demand costs, generally daytime during office hours, solar energy is cost-effective. It also delivers benefits at times when the grid is strained, especially those hot summer days when the AC is cranked to full blast. In short, distributed generation helps reduce high costs at peak load times on the grid.

As we continue to bring down the cost of solar, we are optimistic that we can reach grid parity in a few years versus a few decades.

Is there a cost target that you and others in your industry are aiming to achieve in, say, five years?
Grid parity. Solar energy is already cost-efficient at peak demand but clearly more expensive than average cost. You can expect that solar manufacturers and installers over the next five years will be going into overdrive so that solar is cost-competitive at all times.

9 Comments

1. 1. Bill Case 11:26 AM 4/21/09

   As a former home builder, the biggest blocker to the universal use of solar panels is their look. Customers find them ugly. Why have Industrial Designers not figured out an attractive solar roofing system that includes waterproof shingle replacement, interlocking roof units, attractive edging and valley pieces (even if dummy), and colour choices?
   
   I understand that each one of the above attributes add to cost and may reduce efficiency, but what use is something that the vast majority of people won't buy?

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2. 2. candide 01:22 PM 4/21/09

   I think the looks part is irrelevant, I see more and more solar panels on houses.
   
   People will buy when the payback return is 2-3 years.
   

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3. 3. respectfully.serving 01:34 PM 4/21/09

   I find that my biggest issue as a home owner is storage. Batteries take up a lot space as well must be maintained in a well ventilate location that is secure from children, pets, etc&
   
   What is need is a system where I can sell or store the electricity my solar panels produce during peak hours (when I am at work and not using much electricity) to the utility company and then use it or buy it back when during non-peak hours when I am at home.
   
   Here in Phoenix our utilities will buy a very small amount of what I can actually produce. However they have a cap on how much they will buy. If the lifted that cap and accepted as much as I use then it would be worth my total costs to buy a $30,000 solar system. As it is it would take me 25 years to pay for such a system with money I would save on utility bill.
   

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4. 4. Bill Case in reply to candide 02:28 PM 4/21/09

   Reply to Candide: I am sorry but I have been involved with real estate for years. As many people as are currently buying solar systems, there are far more who would like to. But, even if a couple express the greatest of 'green' enthusiasm when looking at a solar home as a potential purchase, once they are alone in the car, the question of curb appeal dominates.
   
   Although looks are not as high on the priority list for commercial and industrial buildings, they are nonetheless there.
   
   While cost can be the highest priority, it is not the only purchasing priority -- and even if the cost barrier is overcome, it can be overwhelmed by an aggregation of other lesser priorities.
   
   Let me suggest just a few:
   . Make the panels rigid and strong enough to replace roof and/or wall sheathing ( i.e. replace plywood, steel or concrete).
   . Make them work so thy can be constructed as a simple single interlocking unit.
   . Create design shapes, surfaces and colours as choices that architects, building designers etc. can work with.
   . Create a smart energy grid that pays for or charges for energy.
   . Make the grid large enough so that an energy deficit in one region can be replaced by an energy surplus in another -- across country if necessary. See respectfully.serving's comments.
   
   Its a question of walking and chewing gum at the same time. Industrial Designers can improve the saleability of a product while Engineers improve the efficacy. It is done all the time. Get someone with the talent of a Steven Jobs to create solar systems.

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5. 5. Wendell G. Bradley in reply to Bill Case 04:38 PM 4/21/09

   Our National Energy Labs are managed by interlocking boards of directorates that trace back to the interests of Battelle (electric cars, CO2 dumping, coal use, etc.). These interests can be culled out by an entropy analysis. See Entropy (not Energy) is the Issue
   www.newearthrising.org
   Issue #1.
   

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6. 6. nolm69 02:49 AM 4/22/09

   Recent, three to five year developments have seen new technologies being introduced into solar power generation. Kontarka and it's partner(s) have brought the price of solar collectors down to about $0.50 a watt by using special dyes formulated with fullerines , printed onto very inexpensive substrates of flexible materials that are capable of long service lives. Those solar indies are poised to grow a complete independence of long project times by doing away with the necessity of having to invest in expensive retainers and mounting fixtures. Include Chicago's wizard with a turbine capable of being driven by wind for any direction without problems and with a concerted effort to use lo-cost, fast build infrastructure, we're out of the woods in about five years. Oh, and cover a 100 square miles of the Sahara with solar collectors and wind turbines described and the whole world can have free power...but will it be allowed to happen? After all, there's money to be made, and disposable people to be used...... isn't there? You know, it would be so gosh darned n!ce, if everybody got a case of Motherhood and just got 'jiggy", thank you will, with it, put the darn stuff up and sit back and enjoy the breeze. I suppose, however, I'm being a little impractical in my approach, because current human nature can't see past the money, for the power it brings.... will we ever learn?, can we?.....Democratic PJB

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7. 7. cjwirth 12:38 PM 4/22/09

   We could have all of the electric power we could wish for from solar power and it would not help the Peak Oil energy crisis.
   
   After 80 years of searching, there is no way to store and use electric power for large tractors/combines, long distance trucks, ships, and the freight trains in use currently.
   
   Time has run out for an electric economy, oil production limits credit and any changeover to an economy economy.
   
   As the recession deepens into a permanent and ever worsening economic depression, we will have spare electric power as factories, commercial plazas, and offices close.
   
   Documented here with scientific reports: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
   http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/

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8. 8. cjwirth 06:32 AM 4/23/09

   
   Most renewable energies yield electric energy, which is not practical in powering tractors, combines, long distance trucks, airplanes, ships, and most freight trains. The development of these renewables uses much liquid fuel and yields electric energy, which in not useful. And why develop more electric energy as factories, commercial center, and offices close and require less electric power?
   
   
   Renewable energy is an elusive butterfly, as it is manufactured, transported, and maintained on fossil energy, which will soon become prohibitively expensive. When the power grid goes out, electric energy will not be available, except locally, until spare parts for the system are not available.
   
   
   By chasing elusive butterflies, we don't see that we are running off a cliff.
   
   
   Global oil production is declining now. As oil and natural gas production decline, more oil and natural gas energy is expended in extraction and refining processes, and less net oil and natural gas are actually produced. Because the net production curve toward depletion is steeper than the production curves that we see on most all charts, this is an important question. For much deep water oil and gas extraction, the point at which the amount of oil/gas expended equals the amount of oil/gas produced is reached quickly, especially when all of the oil/gas used for manufacturing all of the ships, pipelines, platforms, refineries, parts, their manufacture in factories that use energy, and all of the employee/stock owner salaries/dividends/pensions for all of the companies (salaries/dividends/pensions are spent and use oil/gas), and transportation for all of the above parts and employees. And, oil exports are in decline.
   
   
   Other alternatives hold little or no promise. Coal liquefaction is possible, but global coal production is peaking, the capital for building plants is not available, and this oil production (made from coal)could not make up for much declining oil production. Time to read about the "quicksand effect" by metallurgist Chris Shaw: http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=5964
   
   
   We are in the quicksand period of the oil age.
   
   
   We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from “outside,” and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, irrigation, water supply and waste water treatment, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.
   
   
   It is time to face the music, and prepare for Peak Oil impacts.
   
   
   Best regards,
   
   
   Cliff Wirth
   
   Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D.
   clifford.wirth@peakoilassociates.com
   www.peakoilassociates.com
   Telephone 603-668-4207

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9. 9. Joe Boyce 10:54 AM 8/31/10

   While all of the points made above are valid, it's important to consider the benefit of simply making PV the solution for just 5% of the commercial electricity used in the U.S. This would mean that only the most suitable buildings by solar resource, incentives, and structure adopt PV. The impact on peak demand and the grid would be positive if used with current DR and grid technology.
   
   Solar is an energy technology platform from which we can launch new innovations in transportation and other industries. The success of hybrid cars has shown us that people will pay a premium for energy-efficient vehicles. This is mainly driven by the direct connection to oil every time a driver fills the tank. Consumers are far less aware of where electricity comes from, it's cost, and environmental impact.
   
   Solar offsets peak demand, producing most when use is highest. Aside from powering buildings, it enables efficient charging of plug-in vehicles for commuter, delivery, or fleet use. Thus directly affecting petroleum consumption.
   
   As our awareness of oil dependency and cost rose in the U.S. Toyota responded with evolutionary technology that made consumers feel good. Prius buyers were making a statement, choosing efficiency over size and power, quirky looks be damned. Prius became a badge of enlightenment, and prestige, showing off the means to pay a little extra for the higher good. It became a mainstream culture. Solar can be too, if we innovate not just the technology, but finance and marketing as well.
   
   First, simplify and standardize the solar value proposition so consumers get the message and adopt. People don't mind things being ugly as long as they're "cool"(just look at current fashion to confirm).
   
   Second, we need to understand the long-term cost equation. Maintenance is minimal, there are no moving parts. Feedstock is not an issue. By generating power where it is consumed cuts transmission loss to near zero vs about 45% loss with centralized generation.
   
   Lastly, global adoption is scaling fast as prices drop. The cheap energy produced by solar is enabling more production without the associated overhead. Countries like Spain, Italy and China are already ahead of us in capacity and building more as fast as they can, yet the U.S. uses almost 25% of the world's energy. They're reducing costs and finding efficiencies, while in the U.S. we continue to debate.
   
   In the end, innovation will always beat out complacency and arrogance. Getting consumers on board is the key to success now.
   
   Joe Boyce
   Gaia Worldwide
   jboyce@gaiaworldwide.com

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