Michel estimates that 3D packaging could, in principle, reduce computer volume by a factor of 1,000, and power consumption by a factor of 100, compared to current 2D architectures. But the introduction of brain-like, 'bionic' packaging structures, he says, could cut power needs by another factor of 30 or so, and volumes by another factor of 1,000. The heat output would also drop: 1-petaflop computers, which are now large enough to occupy a small warehouse, could be shrunk to a volume of 10 liters.

If computer engineers aspire to the awesome heights of zetaflop computing (1021 flops), a brain-like structure will be necessary: with today's architectures, such a device would be larger than Mount Everest and consume more power than the current total global demand. Only with a method such as bionic packaging does zetaflop computing seem remotely feasible. Michel and his colleagues believe that such innovations should enable computers to reach the efficiency — if not necessarily the capability — of the human brain by around 2060. That is something to think about.

This article is reproduced with permission from the magazine Nature. The article was first published on December 12, 2012.

5 Comments

1. 1. suitti 01:07 PM 12/13/12

   If a chip is 2-D, but with devices on both sides, then devices on both sides can be cooled, for example, by emmersion in a flowing liquid. If most of the heat is in the wires, then put the wires on the outside where they can be cooled. While a 3-D architecture lets devices be closer to each other, you have the issue of how to cool stuff that isn't on the surface. One possible way of fixing that is to introduce holes for coolant to pass through the body of the device. How small can they be made? Can all devices be close enough to coolant? Does the liquid have to be forced through small tubes under high pressure? Perhaps a study of capilaries can help.

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2. 2. Alchemist101 02:59 AM 12/14/12

   I dont believe in engineers !

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3. 3. David E. Hockin 03:58 PM 12/14/12

   Eniac was NOT the first "modern electronic computer" and that was "built at the end of WW2".
   The first was built at Bletchley Park in Britain DURING WW2, and was instrumental in the code-breaking work that was carried out there on coded German radio transmissions.

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4. 4. NussbeckRon 08:28 PM 12/17/12

   A solution for cooling massive array's of computers circuits looms as the single largest obstacle to computing's future may have been solved using multiple low orbit processing centers cooled by space and powered by solar radiation? Computing using Low Orbit remote data processing centers that utilize encrypted microwave transmission to user centers for distributions to subscribers is the future?
   
   Google could save $100's of Billions over Ten years of operations in energy costs it will spend to run current Data center and cooling costs. Space data centers would allow for the immediate development of future computing, exaflop machine.
   
   
   Ron Nussbeck

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5. 5. jonconnell 07:58 AM 12/19/12

   Great article - thanks. I was wondering if to the best of your knowledge anyone is actively working on a "reversible computing" means as suggested by Ray Kurzweil? That method is supposed to generate zero net thermal loss. I can sorta-kinda envisage the logical operations involved - and wondered if perhaps the new memristor semiconductor flavor or the much in-the-news electron spin storage and other pending quantum computing widgets would get us any closer to that dream?
   To clarify the reference - quoting from his "The Singularity is Near"... Quote: "Rolf Landauer showed in 1961 that reversible logical operations such as NOT (turning a bit into its opposite) could be performed without putting energy in or taking heat out, but that irreversible logical operations such as AND (generating bit C, which is a 1 if and only if both inputs A and Bare 1) do require energy. In 1973 Charles Bennett showed that any computation could be performed using only reversible logical operations. A decade later, Ed Fredkin and Tommaso Toffoli presented a comprehensive review of the idea of reversible computing. The fundamental concept is that if you keep all the intermediate results and then run the algorithm backward when you've finished your calculation, you end up where you started, have used no energy, and generated no heat. Along the way, however, you've calculated the result of the algorithm." End quote.
   He then goes on to inspiringly ask "How Smart Is a Rock?". Wondering if there any fundamental efforts towards changing the calculation process, not just the wiring and location? (This middle aged engineer needs a zetaflop before he turns 100!).
   

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