By 2035, EIA expects energy consumption to increase 84 percent in nations that sit outside of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Those "non-OECD countries" are dominated by the likes of China, India, Russia and parts of the Middle East. Developed countries that are part of the OECD include the major countries of North America and Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
OECD countries will account for just a 14 percent increase in energy consumption through 2035, EIA says.
Escalating energy demands from developing nations
Under EIA's scenario, business activity in OECD countries expands 0.9 percent annually. "Slow expansion of gross domestic product and low or declining population growth in many OECD nations contribute to slower anticipated rates of increase in commercial energy demand," says the report. The impact of companies' boosting their energy efficiency will also moderate energy consumption.
In the developing world, it's about population growth. The need for health care, education and social services will lead to the need for energy. As those economies get bigger, EIA says, compounding demand in the service sector also will boost the need for energy.
"The energy needed to fuel growth in commercial buildings will be substantial," says the report, "with total delivered commercial energy use among the non-OECD nations projected to grow by 2.7 percent per year from 2007 to 2035."
No less important to the prospect for greenhouse gas emissions is petroleum's future.
EIA lumps oil under a category called liquid fuels, which also includes ethanol, biodiesel and other petroleum-related products. Liquid fuels' share of the world energy market is expected to fall from 35 percent in 2007 to 30 percent in 2035. Consumption remains flat in the buildings sector, increases modestly in the industrial sector and declines in the electric power sector because of rising oil prices.
Biofuels and fuel from oil sands grow
A lot of people are buying cars in China. Oil prices might be on the rise, but EIA projects a 1.3 percent yearly increase in liquid fuel consumption, a 45 percent increase through 2035.
Unconventional petroleum, which often requires heavy energy use to produce, is expected to increase to nearly 13 million barrels a day in 2035 and account for 12 percent of total world supply. "Oil sands from Canada and biofuels, largely from Brazil and the United States, are the largest components of future unconventional production," says the report, "providing a combined 70 percent of the increment in total unconventional supply over the projection period."
Global natural gas consumption increases 44 percent under EIA assumptions. Industrial demand for gas plummeted in 2008 and 2009 as the economic recession ate into that sector. The broader world economy, however, is expected to rebound, and Asia uses far more natural gas for heavy industry than does the slower-growth U.S. economy. The power sector's share of the world's total natural gas consumption increases from 33 percent in 2007 to 36 percent in 2035.
Natural gas markets will be well supplied and prices relatively low, EIA projects, and gas will continue to be a focus for oil and gas producers in the Middle East, Africa and Russia.
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500