In early 2006, as the five-year construction project finally neared completion, a Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) engineer named Wu Ziwang predicted that the rate of change was more serious, concluding that the frozen ground supporting the railway could be soaked with puddles within a decade. A lone voice at the time, the researcher was admonished for his candor, rebuked by his department, and later declined to be interviewed for this story when I visited his CAS office in Lanzhou, located deep in central China.
Out of danger?
Clearly, not everyone believes the railway is in imminent danger. According to Cheng Guodong, one of the project's master scientists, the permafrost directly under the rail bed may be thinning, but it is holding firm, and that bodes well for its ability to withstand further warming. In his 2006 paper published in the journal Cold Regions Science and Technology, he wrote, "The temperature of the permafrost under the duct…decreased remarkably." As a result of this, according to the paper, the frozen layers have spread upward in some places, freezing the dirt infill of the rail bed itself.
Guodong explains that the construction impact posed a greater threat to the plateau permafrost than global warming. "The first two to three years might be the most dangerous period," he wrote in a translated e-mail in May. "If we had not considered the influencing factors well enough, thermal and stress adjustments would tell us."
If the railway has done well this far, as he says it has, then it will likely withstand whatever stresses the climate throws at it next—at least for awhile.
Abrahm Lustgarten is a reporter at ProPublica and is the author of China's Great Train, Beijing's Drive West and the Campaign to Remake Tibet, which was released in paperback in May.
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21 Comments
Add CommentMaybe when some large disasters hit places like the path of the Tibet-China railway climate change will be unarguably seen as fact.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMy guess is that the doubters will continue - until it reaches their own backyards.
Yes I am not persuaded yet. There is too much geologic evidence for fairly frequent climate chantes throughout our history. If I hear the train disappears into the melting permafrost, then I will reconsider. :)
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMust you anthropocentric global-warming zealots constantly interject your whining and carping into every discussion? You have no monopoly on the truth, and more and more scientifically distinguished "doubters" are emerging as the stigma of contradicting liberal dogma gradually erodes. Your desperate need to be proven "right" is childish and counterproductive to your own cribbed arguments.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWill Global Warming Melt the Permafrost Supporting the China-Tibet Railway? Answer: Who cares? This is just another of the daily drip of articles which chronicle things to worry about if the world is warming.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAnd how could a one-time "human disturbance" cause the ground to warm at double the rate of surrounding ground?
McLoughlin.... I do believe it is YOU who doth protest too much :-)
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOne of the greatest lies perpetrated on the American public, is that there is some liberal agenda, and that climate change is their cudgel.
It would be like me saying that companies with near trillion dollar revenue streams are invested in protecting their investment at all costs... That would never happen would it?
I mean, come on, tobacco companies would never endanger people's health just to keep making a little money would they? Pharmaceutical companies would never hide adverse reactions to a drug that could make them a bundle right?
So no people - trust your planet's future to the wise and never failing American free economic system. What could go wrong?
The answer to your title question is not just no, but H3LL NO!!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this~~~~Enough with the junk science, already.
i believe china government will never concern things like these until there really happens an accident caused by the melting of permafrost, which claims hundreds peoples die.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisi believe china government will never concern issues like these until there really happen some terrible accidents caused by the melting of permafrost, which may claim hundreds of people's lives.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisItem: worldwide glacier melt.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisItem: species retreat to higher latitudes and elevations.
Item: increase in number and devastation of wildfires.
You may argue the cause but not the fact.
i believe china government will never concern issues like these until there really happen some terrible accidents caused by the melting of permafrost, which may claim hundreds of people's lives.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisItem: worldwide glacier melt.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisItem: worldwide species retreat to higher latitudes and elevations.
Item: worldwide incease in amount and devastation of wildfires.
You may argue cause but not fact.
Climate Change Deniers should try investing in Insurance companies that take the big risks. When it is your money that is involved you listen to the experts. Insurance companies take climate change very seriously, and base their decisions on hard-nosed scientific fact. The cost of climate change will be greater than the recent bank bail-outs...
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYes, the planet has had climate changes in the past, the difference is that now it has to contend with over 6 billion, energy consuming, polluting creatures called humans.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisDo any of you seriously believe that that many individual organisms along with their various direct and indirect emissions have no affect upon the planet?
The Earth is a closed system similar to a goldfish bowl. Like the goldfish bowl, there are only a certain number of fish it can support before the whole system collapses to sustainable levels.
It's been on the news that China is installing solar panels and studing the effects of smog...are any of you reading other stuff? They even talked about better power solutions.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisNo matter...we should clean up the earth...it's the right thing to do for the future.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf you read the bible...it's you responsibilty to take care of the garden. (You have to look it up for youself)
We all can do something to help make life cleaner.
Actually, probably because of random variations in local climate some places will melt and others will freeze. But this will not be a terrific problem for the Chinese because it really isn't that expensive to re-freeze the ground under any sections of the rail bed that actually get soft by running underground pipes maybe 4 inches in diameter about ten feet down on both sides of the track..
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIn fact, you can freeze permafrost much colder than it would normally get by nature with a refrigerant plant that is train-mobile. Super-cooled permafrost will take decades to warm up again, especially if you put insulating ground covers over the crushed rock of the road bed.
I wish and urge World citizen to convey our concern and voice to International Organisations and Chinese Government to think of future and world's prosperity then selfish motives that last for time being with a huge disastrous harm to whole world.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMay Peace Prevail on this Earth!
"more scientifically distinguished "doubters" are emerging"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisA credible critique would name the "scientifically distinguished "doubters". My impression is there are few "doubters" in the scientific community of the veracity of climate change the derivative, global warming.
preserving permafrost in arctic areas.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAs a consequence of global warming, the permafrost in large areas of Alaska and similar places is slowly melting. Although the permafrost does not melt quickly, as the average yearly temperature increases, it does eventually melt.
This is causing major problems because the frozen ground was relied on for the support of buildings, roads, and pipelines. As the permafrost melts, the ground often turns into a soft bog that cannot support anything heavy.
The heat pipes described above can refreeze the ground during the winter when very cold temperatures are common. If there is a heat pipe that penetrates deeply into the ground and extends above the ground, the above ground portion that is cooled by the extremely cold winter air will transfer the heat from deep underground and reduce the underground temperature around the pipe rapidly to the temperature of the air. To increase the efficiency of this process, the top of the heat pipe can be fitted with fins that help remove the heat. During the summer, the underground temperature will remain low because the pipe will not transfer heat down and the soil will insulate the subsurface frozen ground from the warm air above. The volume of the subsurface frozen region will increase over several seasons as the heat pipe continues to remove heat from deep below the surface.
The heat pipes are low in cost because they consist of nothing but a sealed pipe that has a small amount of propane or similar liquid in it. If the pipes are made of a metal that will not rust or corrode, the pipes will last for many years. A large number of them can be used to protect pipeline supports, roads, buildings, or anything else that relies on permafrost for support.
for further information see isecke.blogspot.com
Whether it is the Chinese Government or a multinational company, the endeavour to put a rail link there was fraught with future dangers anyway and when and if damage occurs, the Government/company will continue to upgrade and repair as long as it is profitable to do so. When it isn't, the rail link will close.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhether it is the Chinese Government or a multinational company, the endeavour to put a rail link there was fraught with future dangers anyway and when and if damage occurs, the Government/company will continue to upgrade and repair as long as it is profitable to do so. When it isn't, the rail link will close.
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