The price of staple foods—wheat, rice, corn—more than doubled over the course of the last year. Food riots swept poorer nations from Bangladesh to Haiti, and some countries, such as India and Vietnam, imposed limits on crop exports.

But staple prices have fallen in recent months, part of a general fall in commodity prices as part of the ongoing financial crunch. Does that mean the food crisis has passed?

ScientificAmerican.com's David Biello spoke about the crisis with Joachim von Braun, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) headquartered in Washington, D.C., an organization seeking an end to hunger and poverty through appropriate local, national and international policy.

[An edited transcript of the interview follows.]


Earlier this year there was a widespread perception of a food crisis as grain and other food commodity prices soared, accompanied by food riots in Haiti and elsewhere. But recently those prices have dropped. Has the crisis passed?
Not at all. Only some of the elements and causes of the crisis have changed. Prices came down in the international commodity markets and that helps import-dependent poor countries. But in many countries the international price change is not quickly passed on to the domestic markets. For instance, in many African countries [prices] remain far above long-term trends. Now the financial crisis comes on top of the price crisis. Capital for investment in agriculture is very limited and employment and income of the poor is reduced in the recession. Hunger will increase further.

What was responsible for this crisis?
The [food] price crisis in 2007–2008 stemmed from long-term neglect of agricultural investment, especially investment in research and development; the financial crisis in the second half of 2008 stemmed from fundamentally different causes—flawed regulatory regimes in banking and finance—but the two crises have fed on each other. Although the food and financial crises developed from different underlying causes, they are becoming intertwined in complex ways through their implications for macroeconomic stability, food security and political security. Because the two crises are interconnected, a coordinated response is needed to alleviate the double blow on the poor.

Why can't we produce enough food and/or get food to where it is needed?
We can grow enough food but currently don’t. Greater investment in research and development [R&D] is crucial for promoting pro-poor agricultural growth. Even though spending on agricultural R&D is among the most effective types of investment for promoting growth and reducing poverty, such spending has stagnated since the mid-1990s. A recent study by IFPRI shows that if investments in public agricultural research doubled from US$5 [billion] to US$10 billion from 2008 to 2013, agricultural output would increase significantly and millions of people would emerge from poverty. If these R&D investments are targeted at the poor regions of the world—sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia—about 282 million people could come out of poverty by 2020.

Can a green revolution be brought to Africa? And can the green revolution in Asia be sustained?
Yes and yes. The focus in Africa needs to be on dry lands and making quality seeds and fertilizer available to the small farm sector, and to improve market functioning. In Asia the focus needs to be on water management and irrigation as well as smooth diversification into high value crops, especially fruits and vegetables, oilseeds and on the animal production sector.

What is needed to solve this problem once and for all?
We need attention to three actions: a long term commitment to enhanced agricultural productivity; action…[to]…reduce market volatility—in other words agricultural commodity markets, not only financial markets, must be part of reformed regulatory systems to move out of the crisis and avoid future turmoil; and attention to expand social protection and child nutrition action. Attention in all these three cases means more investment and aid and strong implementation of the actions.

What do you anticipate in the next six months, next few years, and in the long term?
In 2008 with the onset of the food and financial crises, growth has slowed and optimistic projections have been scaled down. Low economic growth will have negative second-round effects for investment and productivity, with direct ramifications for food prices and food security around the globe. IFPRI analyses from 2005 to 2020 compare a scenario of continued high economic growth and maintained productivity and investments in agriculture with two recession scenarios. In both recession scenarios economic growth is reduced by 2 to 3 percentage points depending on world regions, but the scenarios differ in terms of investments. In one scenario investment is maintained and in the other it is cut by 20 percent as we probably have to expect.

Under that scenario, the prices of major cereals will increase significantly again soon. In 2020 maize prices will be 27 percent higher than under the baseline scenario. A next, even bigger food crisis would come along soon [after] under these circumstances.

Climate change will add to the precarious situation. 16 million more children will be malnourished globally by 2020 compared with the baseline scenario. This can and must be prevented. The poor need a bailout through agricultural growth, stable food markets and protection of their basic nutrition.

5 Comments

1. 1. scientific earthling 05:44 PM 12/15/08

   Every investment must return a sustainable yield. We now want 10 to 12% and considered it reasonable, it used to be 3%.
   
   Look at the current financial crises; it is the result of greed. Those in control of our institutions claimed a kings ransom for a very poor job. They converted vast amounts of equity into small profit increases and paid themselves vast sums, bankrupting the institutions they were appointed to manage. Regulators did not act. The USA and some European countries are in the same position as the USSR in the 90s.
   
   Greed also requires an illiterate population that asks no questions. Population control and education had to be eradicated especially in the third world. Now populations are out of control and unsustainable. Food will become ever more expensive fuelled by greed. Research had to be stopped to create shortages to increase prices.
   
   At the end of the day, natural selection will win. Populations will return to normal or the species goes extinct. Earth will support life till the sun makes life of the kind we understand extinct.
   
   Our intelligence seems to exist in an electro-chemical matrix sustained by neurons. Are there similar matrices around? Look at our tiny sun.

   Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this

2. 2. guitarwilly09 05:09 AM 12/16/08

   I am concerned that Biello didn't mention environmental sustainability as one of his solutions to solve the food crisis. How can we expect to continuously grow and eat foods and grains if our soils are depleted of their organic matter and nutrients? Chemical fertilizers and other expensive inputs are not part the long-term answer to a pro-poor agriculture policy. We must be more reflexive of our methods and evaluate the effectiveness of organic farming methods, proven by UN analysis, to be more appropriate for poor farmers.

   Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this

3. 3. eco-steve 11:56 AM 12/17/08

   Starvation and emigration to shanty towns are both have but one cause : The demographic explosion. Poor people have large families which smallholdings cannot support. The solution is to feed the old people, so that they do not need large families to look after them when they are too elderly to work. Paying old people pensions in developped countries has reduced family sizes to sustainable levels. We could eliminate starvation rapidly, if governments could agree on common taxation to pay for pensions.

   Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this

4. 4. scientific earthling in reply to eco-steve 03:07 AM 12/18/08

   Paying pensions in some countries will exacerbate the population problems. Population explosions in some countries are caused by people of different religious groups trying to outnumber their opponents. In some third world countries people would not know how to stop having babies, even if they were desperate to.
   The answer is education.

   Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this

5. 5. sallymelR 05:48 AM 1/8/11

   Companies advertising debt relief online may not be the best way to relieve credit card financial debt. The best way to get rid of charge card financial debt is to do it yourself, perhaps using a unsecured loan. Personal responsibility is probably the most direct route to a better credit score and substantial savings on reduced interest rates in the future. Source of article - <a title="Using a personal loan for credit card debt could be interesting" href="http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/2010/11/23/personal-loan-for-credit-card-debt/">Using a personal loan for credit card debt could be interesting by Money Blog Newz</a>.

   Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this