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But in some ways, the recent decline in VMT seems counterintuitive. The U.S. economy is slowly rebounding, and the population continues to grow while people are also driving until later in life, theoretically adding more trucks and passenger cars to the road. So is there more to this trend than economics?
The interesting thing for Roy Kienitz, transportation infrastructure consultant and former undersecretary for policy at the Department of Transportation, is that American drivers actually started changing their individual driving habits years before the recession started.
The overall number of miles traveled by road peaked just before the market collapsed, but the number of VMT per capita peaked in 2004 and declined over the next eight years until today, according to Kienitz's research, which is based on publicly available data.
Last year, the U.S. economy continued on a modest upward trend, reaching 3 percent growth in the last quarter. Yet 2011 was one of the steepest years in VMT decline. "This tells me that this is something that's speeding up, not slowing down," said Kienitz.
But, he added, "I think it would be too much to say we understand everything that's going on here."
The population shift toward urban centers and the rise in electronic communication are other possible reasons for reduced vehicle use. Living in a city makes bicycling and public transit more convenient, and the widespread use of cellphones and Web-based calling services like Skype may be making in-person visits less of a priority, especially among youths.
"Virtual contact through electronic means reduces the need for actual contact among young people," said Michael Sivak, research professor at the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute. "Furthermore, some young people feel that driving interferes with texting."
The cha-ching factor
Sivak was lead author on a study published earlier this year, which examined the reduced rate of young people getting driver's licenses. Among the 15 economically advanced countries he analyzed, he found that places with a higher number of Internet users correlated with lower licensure rates among youths between 20 and 24 years of age -- including in the United States.
The initial expense of a car and the cost of insurance were also identified as reasons why young people were less likely to get a license.
This finding is bolstered by ongoing research by Ray Bingham, research professor in psychiatry at the University of Michigan, who also works at the Transportation Research Institute. In a survey of 160 teens and parents in the Midwest, he found that cost was the No. 1 reason youths weren't getting their licenses and starting to drive.
But as employment increases among youths and in the broader population, cost-related barriers linked to car use could disappear and driving rates could spike to all-time highs. The Federal Highway Administration predicts that the total number of VMT in the United States will go up again once the economy makes a stronger recovery.
According to the "2011 Urban Congestion Trends" report, "This unique timing makes the implementation of time-saving traffic operations strategies all the more important."
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500
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14 Comments
Add CommentRetiring has all but stopped my need for a car. As for cars in general, it's at least another 100 years before you will pry the last dead fingers from a privately owned vehicle in America, even at $10 or $20 a gallon.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt is the devaluation of currency and loss of what small wealth Americans really have that is non political multi decade process that has no concern for whatever administration is in apparent "control" as the real control of currency is the Federal Reserve. Democrat or Republican politicians only pretend this prerogative is theirs. Other reasons under political control as well but the change from rights to privilege will never be reversed. The jobs that cannot support the cost of a vehicle increase every year. Loss of good jobs increasing cost and disenfranchised drivers are the future. Think mass transit.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe internal combustion engine could be banned due to nanoparticle. Early 2013 is my guess. The car will be replaced by a breakthrough in air travel.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe internal combustion engine will be around for a long time. Cars made today will still be on the road in 20 years. The oil companies won't stop until ever drop of recoverable oil is depleted. While we may see the day that aircraft will become much more common for commuting (at least for the 1%), the fact remains that too many people are just too stupid to learn to fly safely. Heck, half the country still can't tell the difference between climate and weather and don't believe their cars are contributing to global warming. Look how many people still can't park a car with any degree of precision or keep their tires inflated. Now imagine these dimwits flying around while yacking on the phone, munching on a Big Mac and swilling down a Bud Light. The fact is that light aircraft and 350 lb passengers don't work together too well. They are still going to need those 3 ton SUV's to cart their fat rear ends around and nanoparticles (whatever the heck they are) or lightweight hybrid cars just ain't gonna' cut it either.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAs for me down here in a small city in New Zealand,I get the 21 year old car out of the garage about twice a week to go out to buy groceries . About a 5 minute drive into town.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMy wife has purchased a small electric mobility scooter and one day soon may go for a drive in/on it.
Too cold and wet for her at the moment.
Glad not to be in a big city breathing the toxic fumes in traffic jams.
I did have a private pilot's licence a few decades ago but the cost of flying is too high for the ordinary bloke.
I empathize with Leslie- traffic in the beltway can be miserable! I agree that this may become a gradual trend as energy costs associated with automobiles will slowly rise in the future. While battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) may be economical and cleaner alternatives, I don't think many Americans are going to be thrilled with the mileage obtained by economical BEVs. If you're interested in an in-depth discussion about this and other trends, consider http://goo.gl/D8FPu
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisA 10% increase or decrease use of cars in the USA is irrelevent in the global scheme of things. More cars were sold in China last year than in the USA and more cars will be sold in China in 2020 than the USA and Europe combined. Then there is India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Mexico....
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou guys really missed the boat on this. The aging of the baby boom is a huge contributor to the drop in miles driven. See http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/DOT-Miles-Driven.php and http://www.hsdent.com/uploads/userfiles/file/Demand%20Curves.pdf - page 13 in particular.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt's telecommuting. In many cities, there are more telecommuters than transit riders on any given day. Many of us have discovered how convenient and easy it is to work at home a couple of days a week. Now I can use my car for pleasure instead of putting up with the grind of bumper to bumper traffic
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere's a paradigm shift with sticker and fuel prices reaching wallet-crunching levels. It's also an incredible opportunity for the next transportation revolution. Personal transportation means travel control at its best - but the POCS has priced itself out of the transportation dream. It has all the marks of a revolution based on the right ideas.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this60 hours a year doesnt seem right. I drive about 400 hours a year. 2 hours back n forth. 10 hours a week. About 40 weeks a year.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe boomers' changing lifestyle is certainly a big factor, but check out urban/suburban teens and 20-30 year olds. They want to be connected to their iDevice, listen to music, text with friends. You can't do that when you are driving, unless we get the Google car that drives itself. That will be one factor in the decline of driving. Urban biking, at least in the biggest cities is going to factor into less car driving, as is the ubiquity of iGo and Zipcars. Any major change will come as result of the interaction of several trends.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf the peak was in 2004, they only missed this story by 8 years. Most of the article talks about the economic downturn, then states that the car slowdown happened before the economic slowdown. Most of the other articles I've read state that the current generation are more environmentally aware, and see car ownership as a hassle.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI intend to drive. I still go considerably faster that waiting for a bus and taking 2 transfers. I still like having a car to carry my groceries. I like being able to go to the store with lower prices. It is nice to read about rapid transportation except that rapid transportation does not go where I want to go. Until it does, I will not take it. Mass transportation is too slow and uncomfortable. In many places the best way to get from point a to point b is by automobile. I do not understand why articles appear trying to get people out of their cars without presenting a viable alternative.
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