Luettich's simulations contradict mathematical modeling by NOAA of the likely movements of the ongoing oil spill, which shows a low probability of Texas being impacted and a general movement of the oil toward the east—in the absence of a hurricane.
Clean-up impact
Of course, a storm doesn't even have to come close to the slick to cause havoc, as Alex proved. "The main thing [hurricanes] do is generate waves, and those waves travel long distances," Luettich says. "They can have an impact on skimming and other efforts to stop the oil."
Alex's top winds of 160 kilometers per hour and the storm's path hundreds of kilometers south of the slick were enough to push tar balls to Galveston, Texas, and even into Lake Pontchartrain in Louisiana. "There is a good chance that the large circulation of Hurricane Alex contributed to westward advection of some of the tar balls related to the oil spill toward Louisiana and Texas," Marks says. But "it would be very hard to attribute the tar balls arriving only to the presence of Alex."
And if oil continues to need to be pumped from the ocean floor, operations will have to be shut down some 120 hours before a storm, according to Coast Guard Rear Admiral Thad Allen, who is directing the government's efforts to contain and clean up the oil spills. A new capped blowout preventer that BP has installed may avert that in future.
Dampening effects
Oil, paradoxically, also has the effect of calming rough seas—as has been reported or demonstrated by scientists from Aristotle to Benjamin Franklin. A small amount of oil can dampen a large amount of waves, due to the differing surface tensions of the two fluids.
In fact, a German experiment reported May 15, 1989, in the Journal of Geophysical Research (pdf) found that oil does indeed depress waves, primarily by dampening short waves that then cannot transfer their energy to longer waves. "If you put oil on the surface, oil damps out small waves very effectively," Zappa says. But "they found this at regular winds, 20 knots at maximum, not a hurricane."
Oil also dampens evaporation. But given that the oil slick, despite covering 6,500 square kilometers, is still three to four times smaller than a hurricane, it is not expected to dampen the power of an onrushing storm. "The hurricane is going to be so strong that it would break up any slicks and cause them to be patchy. It's not going to have too much of an impact on evaporation," Zappa says. "That's the idea, but we don't know for sure."
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6 Comments
Add CommentIt seems that a hurricane can expose the land to pollutants by means other than sea spray and evaporating water: any lighter than sea water chemical elements might be the first ashore in any major storm surge.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisHas a major hurricane ever come ashore coincidental with a comparable oil 'spill' before? I suspect not - in which case perhaps NOAA should more seriously consider the potential impacts.
Even a few waterspouts could produce more serious impact than those dismissively reported here.
There has never been a comparable oil 'spill'. The Ixtoc I spill (which if we were consistent would be called the Sedco 135-F, since that was the name of the semi-submersible rig that was drilling the Ixtoc I well when the blowout occurred) comes closest. Category 1 Hurricane Henri wandered around the Bay of Campeche, but did not pass over the site of the leaking well. Henri dissipated without ever making land fall.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Already storms have caused lightning strikes on the Deepwater Horizon rig pumping oil from the broken well"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe Deepwater Horizon is the rig that was drilling the well when the blowout occurred. It sank and is now lying on the Gulf floor under more than 5,000 feet of water. The vessels that have been involved in collecting and/0r flaring off the oil and gas being captured from the well are the Discoverer Enterprise, the Q4000 and the Helix Producer.
The Ixtoc I spill was actually far worse than this one. That little fact is suppressed because it demonstrates what environmentalists don't want you to know: oil is biodegradable.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisfrgough - In at least some sense you're right, as there are microbes that ingest certain types of oil. Any biodegradation takes time, however: the environmental impact must be assessed before, during and after any biodegradation and cleanup. Wikepedia's entry on this 'oil spill' (oil well blowout) states:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"While most of the oil drilled off Louisiana is a lighter crude, Horizon's oil is a heavier blend which contains asphalt-like substances. According to Ed Overton, who heads a federal chemical hazard assessment team for oil spills, this type of oil emulsifies well, making a "major sticky mess". Once it becomes that kind of mix, it no longer evaporates as quickly as regular oil, does not rinse off as easily, cannot be eaten by microbes as easily, and does not burn as well. "That type of mixture essentially removes all the best oil clean-up weapons", Overton said."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill
In the meantime, we will justifiably be inundated with images of oil covered birds, dead fish, unemployed fishermen, empty hotel rooms, etc. Hopefully enough people can be employed long enough to effect a laborious and time consuming cleanup.
In addition to the IXTOC spill, Katrina and Rita unleashed 250,000 barrels of oil into the Gulf. Miracle of miracles, nobody, except MMS and affected oil companies, knew much about it. These hurricanes lifted the oil and it basically disappeared, likely forming 1 part in several billion/trillion within the atmosphere.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWe certainly need better containment strategies for the inevitable next disaster, which may lie 50,000 new wells in the future.
BTW the API rating of oil in close by reservoirs approximates 30, so the Macando crude though on the heavy side, certainly floats to the surface- at least until it weathers and loses the lighter hydrocarbons, of which methane represents about 40-60% of the composition.
For sure, the Macondo 252 spill represents a serious environmental blow, but the misinformation propagated by many environmentalists drives sympathetic ears far from where many of them want us to go.