Image: League of Women Voters of California via Creative Commons
If President Barack Obama wins re-election, his supporters may want to thank Hurricane Sandy.
While voter turnout on the East Coast could be reduced as a result of the superstorm, the president may get a national bump for responding quickly to the disaster, experts say.
Lower turnout
"The most likely outcome is that turnout would be depressed, especially in the areas that are without power," said Nathan Kelly, a political scientist at the University of Tennessee Knoxville.
For many people, finding shelter and getting power will take precedence over going to the polls Tuesday.
And Hurricane Sandy left hundreds of polling places flooded or in the dark, so election officials are scrambling to find new locations.
In New York, many polling sites have moved, and voters may have to call their county election board to find the new locations, according to the New York State Board of Elections website.
In New Jersey, local county clerk and election offices are staying open over the weekend to accommodate voters whose polling locations have lost power after flooding, the office of the governor said.
Many people will decide it's not worth the trouble, Kelly said.
"People who aren't very habitual voters and very strongly committed voters, in a situation like that where they're having to learn a new place to vote in a matter of a day — they're going to be less likely to vote," Kelly told LiveScience.
The hardest-hit counties are more strongly Democratic than surrounding areas are, so that could hurt voter turnout for Obama.
On the other hand, Kelly said, opinion polls in the states pummeled by Sandy — Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey — show the president so far ahead that low turnout is unlikely to shift those states' electoral votes to Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
That could cause a discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral count. "If hundreds of thousands of Obama supporters stay home and let's say he still wins the election, if it was going to be really close, it might switch that to where Obama fails to win the national vote but still wins the Electoral College," Kelly said.
Bump for Obama
The disaster may provide an unexpected bump nationally for Obama, said Andrew Reeves, a political scientist at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and Boston University.
Reeves has studied the effect of natural disasters on voting patterns and has found that when a local official asks for federal aid after an earthquake, hurricane or tornado, that official gets a bump of a few points in the polls. Those who don't seek federal aid get dinged. [Natural Disasters: Top 10 US Threats]
Usually, a disaster-related change in voting is seen only at the local level, Reeves told LiveScience.
"When there's a really bad rainstorm or snowstorm and a couple of houses get damaged, and maybe power goes out for a little while, the president might not be the first person you think of as the one responsible," he said.
But because Hurricane Sandy caused so much damage and was so heavily covered in the national news, voters' impressions of Obama could be affected.
Regarding recovery efforts from the storm, Reeve said, "There's this implication that this is President Obama's responsibility."
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6 Comments
Add CommentWhat a ridiculous way for a publication supposedly about science to bring in politics.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisTo make it more amusing the story is so far off it is unreal. At least get it right. Obama screwed up.
A photo op and cliche comments then returning immediately to the campaign trail in states where no calamity is happening, is actually going to contribute to Obama being defeated.
To look good and gain anything from a natural disaster for a politician, you have to look like you are at least doing something to help. Nothing about stumping on the campaign trail during the plight of suffering victims looks good.
I guess Obama failed to heed the advice of Rahm Emmanuel from a few years ago, never let a natural disaster go to waste.
Anyway, "Scientific" American, how about sticking to actual science. Nothing in this article is of any relevance at all to science.
Actually Pridd... he spent days NOT campaigning while Romney did.... get your story straight.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou can bet the religious right would be frothing at the mouth to claim god was on their side if the hurricane could be claimed to help Romney win... they'd be talking of miracles and the stamp of approval from the allmighty... but of course since it doesn't favor their candidates... total silence.
What upsets me the most is I've heard zero from the media or anyone else praising science, meteorology, years of developing accurate climate models, etc for saving countless lives during this storm. Can you imagine how many more would have died without modern science giving excellent early warnings?
Sad that some people will mistake flying in for a photo op with leadership. Where was this President's quick response for the brave Americans trying to hold out in Libya.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI'd love to help out, but I'm off to Vegas. I've got a campaign to run!
Here is the point. The comments that Sandy may help Obama is a statement of fact. So to fuss about this fact is beyond silly. The other fact (use fact checkers if you like) is that the Republicans have a long record either denying or decrying science, and now perhaps to their detriment.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe sheer amount of Republican bull on this thread is shocking.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisActually I have heard from some on the religious right that Sandy was sent by God to punish NY for legalizing same sex marriages. How anyone can actually believe such tripe is beyond me.
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