POWER DOWN: IEA calls for a multitrillion dollar investment to improve energy efficiency.
ISTOCKPHOTO/MICHAELUTECH

Nations must invest $37 trillion in energy technologies by 2030 to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at sustainable levels and meet energy needs, the International Energy Agency warned today.

IEA's "World Energy Outlook" raises the stakes for U.N. climate talks in Copenhagen, Denmark. Delaying the shift to low-carbon energy by just a few years, it says, will make it impossible to avert catastrophic temperature rises.

The report predicts $26 trillion in 2008 U.S. dollars through 2030 is needed for energy projects to meet growing energy demand, if the world continues on its current energy-use trajectory and remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

Another $10.5 trillion must be spent to lower energy-related greenhouse gas emissions over that span to meet a lower-carbon scenario, the report says.

No change in government policies means "rapidly increasing dependence on fossil fuels, with alarming consequences for climate change and energy security," the report says.

Nobuo Tanaka, IEA's executive director, said the report provides both a stern warning and cause for optimism.

"Continuation of current trends in energy use puts the world on track for a rise in temperature of up to 6 degrees C and poses serious threats to global energy security," Tanaka said in a statement. But, he added, "there are cost-effective solutions to avoid severe climate change while also enhancing energy security -- and these are within reach as the new Outlook shows."

The report finds that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions this year could be as much as 3 percent lower due to the economic slump, which coincided with energy demand slackened by the recession.

But the report adds that these CO2 savings will "count for nothing" without a strong agreement coming out of next month's pivotal climate change talks in Copenhagen.

The report predicts a 2 percent drop in world energy demand this year, the first significant drop since 1981, but says it should rebound soon.

IEA forecasts an increase of 2.5 percent annually between 2010 and 2015, then a slowdown as developing economies mature and population growth eases.

Overall, the report's "reference" case points to an increase of 1.5 percent yearly between 2007 and 2030.

A senior IEA official who asked not to be identified said U.S. pressure forced the report's authors to overstate the potential for oil production increases, The Guardian reported yesterday. That official said the United States pushed IEA to underestimate how quickly existing oil fields may be depleted and hype the development of new reserves in order to prevent a scramble to buy remaining sources, according to the newspaper.

Efficiency is key

The $10.4 trillion additional investment by 2030 to meet the report's "450 scenario" -- in which atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized around 450 parts per million -- would be dominated by investment in building efficiency, the power sector and transportation. The 450 ppm level would limit the odds of global temperatures rising more than 2 degrees Celsius to 50 percent, IEA said.

IEA finds that end-use efficiency accounts for more than half of emissions reductions in 2030 compared with the reference case. Efficiency, as well as other "decarbonization" investments including a greater share of nuclear and renewable energy generation in the power sector, provides two-thirds of the carbon reductions in 2030, the report says.