Image: IMAGE COURTESY OF WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
UNITED NATIONS -- Devastating flooding that has swamped one-fifth of Pakistan and left millions homeless is likely the worst natural disaster to date attributable to climate change, U.N. officials and climatologists are now openly saying.
Most experts are still cautioning against tying any specific event directly to emissions of greenhouse gases. But scientists at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva say there's no doubt that higher Atlantic Ocean temperatures contributed to the disaster begun late last month.
Atmospheric anomalies that led to the floods are also directly related to the same weather phenomena that a caused the record heat wave in Russia and flooding and mudslides in western China, said Ghassem Asrar, director of the World Climate Research Programme and WMO. And if the forecasts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are correct, then Pakistan's misery is just a sign of more to come, said Asrar.
"There's no doubt that clearly the climate change is contributing, a major contributing factor," Asrar said in an interview. "We cannot definitely use one case to kind of establish precedents, but there are a few facts that point towards climate change as having to do with this."
There's also no doubt that the Pakistan flooding will join the ranks of the worst natural disasters in recorded history.
The flooding started slowly at the end of July and gradually accelerated over the past two weeks. Disaster assessment maps show that almost the entire northern part of Pakistan and most of its central region have been hit.
During the most intense storms, about a foot of rain fell over a 36-hour period. Parts of the affected areas, in particular Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province (formerly Northwest Frontier province) received 180 percent of the precipitation expected in a normal monsoon cycle. More rain is expected in the days ahead.
Records show that the famed Indus River is at its highest water level ever recorded in the 110 years since regular record-keeping began. Estimates put the number of displaced people at somewhere between 15 million and 20 million, and the government believes about 1,600 are confirmed dead.
6.5 million need food, drinking water and medicine
The International Organization for Migration says the greatest immediate need is in Punjab, where roughly 500,000 families pushed out by the floods are awaiting assistance. All told, agencies guess that about 6.5 million Pakistanis need shelter, food, potable water and medicine.
"This is a disaster which has affected many more people than I have ever seen," said John Holmes, head of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, who also leads relief efforts in Haiti.
Zamir Akram, Pakistani ambassador to the U.N. center in Geneva, said floodwaters now cover an area roughly the size of England. Satellite surveys show about 160,000 square kilometers (62,000 square miles) is underwater, or about one-fifth of Pakistan's landmass and roughly equivalent to the areas of Austria, Belgium and Switzerland combined.
Asrar at the WMO says higher-than-average Atlantic temperatures and conditions made ripe by the La Niña cycle of lower temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean created the perfect conditions for the rains. Experts acknowledge that the scale of this disaster has been made worse by a history of deforestation and land-use changes in the affected areas, but Asrar insists that the sheer volume of precipitation absorbed by clouds and then dumped on Pakistan is chiefly to blame.
Climate scientists at WMO and elsewhere, including those with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, say this year's summer is one of the hottest ever, with high temperatures breaking records across the United States, Europe and Central Asia. Consequently, the surface of the Atlantic has also been much warmer than usual.
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Add CommentWhere's SoccerDad?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe article states:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Climate scientists at WMO and elsewhere, including those with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, say this year's summer is one of the hottest ever, with high temperatures breaking records across the United States, Europe and Central Asia."
To my limited knowledge, daily high temperature records are not being broken - it is the average temperature record that is being broken. Is this not correct? Locally, the top 10 or so high temperature days all occurred in 1980...
Part of the problem with Climate Change is that it happens slowly - in human terms. Geologically it is happening very quickly, yet within any single human generation is hard to quantify the changes. Science keeps track of this data, but (as we see) even the most rock-solid data can be ignored by those in power.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWe can all see distinct changes from childhood, but can these be PROVEN to be a result of climate change? Probably not, even if they are (in reality) a direct result.
So climate change can (assuming we humans continue to ignore it until it becomes overwhelmingly obvious) help us with the other 800 ln gorilla in the room - overpopulation.
Between the natural disasters, loss of food, potable water problems, spread of disease and more, the overpopulation problem will be taken care of.
Nature has a way of balancing out everything, whether or not we humans will like it or benefit is another issue altogether.
@jtdwyer -
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIndividual records are being set, at an increasing pace.
Also, the ratio of record lows to record highs used to be about 1 to 1, now record high temperatures outpace record lows by more than 2 to 1.
So average and individual temperatures are definitely being affected.
Please this link:
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/maxmin.jsp
"To my limited knowledge, daily high temperature records are not being broken - it is the average temperature record that is being broken. Is this not correct?"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou may be interested in a study that shows the daily highs temperature now outpace daily lows by more than 2:1.
What is even more interesting is the fact that it the night time temperature that are most often being broken. That of course puts the kabash on the "It is the Sun!" crowd.
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/maxmin.jsp#
From the article:
An expanding ratio
The study team focused on weather stations that have been operating since 1950. They found that the ratio of record daily high to record daily low temperatures slightly exceeded one to one in the 1950s, dipped below that level in the 1960s and 1970s, and has risen since the 1980s. The results reflect changes in U.S. average temperatures, which rose in the 1950s, stabilized in the 1960s, and then began a warming trend in the late 1970s.
candide, Trent1492 - Thanks for the info. The site states:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"The ratio of record highs to lows is likely to increase dramatically in coming decades if emissions of greenhouse gases continue to climb."
Not to be too picky, but using GHG emissions to predict the actual ratio of record highs to lows for the periods of 1960-1979 would have failed... I don't want to argue anything here - just noticing.
At any rate, my locale may be an outlier, but I was actually referring to the record high temperature for all time, not for a particular date - I stand corrected. Thanks.
@jtdwyer -
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhat do you mean by the "record high temperature for all time" ?
Over the course of a year, 100 years or ever - for your town, state, country or the planet? Not to be to nit-picky either, but if one goes back far enough (millions of years) temperatures were many orders of magnitude higher... ;)
Please see this link for a table of "highest temperature ever recorded" values - and notice how many are from 2010 (which is not done yet). Also please notice how ZERO low temperature extremes are from 2010.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_records#Highest_temperature_ever_recorded
also only continent has lowest temp recoreded after year 2000 which says a lot and leave no room for arguement that global warming isnt real...it is real and it is here to stay as long as WE want
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"but if one goes back far enough (millions of years) temperatures were many orders of magnitude higher... ;)"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisreally ;)?
do you know what an order of magnitude is? one order of magnitude is a factor of ten, two orders of magnitude is a factor of 100. You seem to be saying that the temperature used to be greater than the boiling point of water. ;)
candide - Thanks again. I just was referring to NWS local record high temps - reported by the local weather folks.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisLooking at maximum temps for a country is probably not very meaningful, as Death Valley stays hotter than anywhere else (although I do understand it's getting hotter).
I do know of some local and regional record low temperatures that occurred during the early 1990s, since I was driving through them at the time. -24F degrees with a 40 mph wind makes for a cold refueling on Christmas eve. Anyway, I'm rambling...
No arguing global warming, but not all data is meaningful.
I see a lot of talk of the impact of the flood on a tragic human level, but not a lot on how the disaster relates directly to climate change over all.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisinteresting.
The next decade will be quite interesting because greenhouse gases will continue to increase as more people in China and India get automobiles, not to mention Africa, South America, Indonesia, and so on.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf a sea level rise of more than a few millimeters does not materialize by 2020 the anthropogenic global warming claims should be significantly deflated.
I have to sadly agree with you. With tens of millions of people living in flood-prone areas, Pakistan set itself up for a fall: it was only a matter of time.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAs individuals, humans can be brilliant; collectively, though, we have a long way to go. I said this elsewhere, but a good analogy of the current situation is a boat loaded with people above Niagara Falls. Some are desperately trying to row towards the river bank; lots are arguing about how someone else's seat is better than theirs; others turn their backs to the waterfall and claim not to see it.
In an attempt to jolt people awake with gallows humour, I often say: "Not to worry. The system is self-correcting. Once we disturb it past the tipping point, we'll just die by the bushell and the problem will go away."
Returning to Pakistan, once the more immediate needs are met, it would be criminally negligent not to take the opportunity to at least sart "steering the boat away from the fall": dealing with population growth, planning land use to reduce future risks, working on reforestation, and so on.
If this is not done, I bet that in the near future we'll be back here saying the same things.
This is almost the "warmists" revenge for last winter, when the denialists were going nuts because the US had an exceptionally cold winter. All I can say to the denialists is "we told you".
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this@Matthewt69 -
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisPerhaps I exaggerated a bit... ;)
However, orders of magnitude depend upon the scale one is using. Base 10 scale is 10,100, 1000 etc. If using a base 2 scale orders of magnitude would be 2, 4, 8 etc.
So if the temperature, during the Cambrian, Silurian or Permian periods, was double what it is now...........
And if one goes back even farther, when the matter for earth was aggregating the "temperature" would be very high. And the temperature would certainly be above the boiling point of water before the surface of Earth cooled to form a solid crust - and water began accumulating (furthering the cooing).
candide - I'd pick the Eocene Epoch. While there was way too much CO2 and the climate was extremely warm, it was much more homogeneous from pole to equator, with palm trees in Alaska and Norther Europe and tropical rain forests in the Pacific Northwest. The poles were covered in temperate forests. Who needs winters, anyway?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisUnfortunately those conditions may have been influenced by the still tight knit continents and associated deep ocean currents. We can still hope!
It seems that a full 1/5th of Pakistan is under water, and the talk is this may be a result of climate change. This is Great news! I think I will leave my Tahoe's engine running all night. I know the gas will cost me a fortune, but I am willing to pay, if there is a chance that we might get the remaining 4/5th of Pakistan under water also.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisB Austin
A pattern is emerging. Please tell me why when the northern and east half of North America is buried under record snow and freezing in record cold we are told it is just weather. We can make no claim that this is resultant form global warming, cooling or whatever. Yet when it is a heat wave or it floods, this can be considered the harbinger of global warming. Either they are both just weather with little or nothing to say about global climate trends or they are not! You can not have it both ways.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf the GLOBAL temperature was going down, year after year that would be Global Cooling.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisBecause GLOBAL temperatures are rising, it is Global Warming.
Warmer air holds more water. Air moves and then drops the water (precipitation) as local weather. More water in the air equals more rain and snow, as we have seen.
Any individual heat wave is not a harbinger of Global warming - but when they become more frequent, hotter and last longer they fit the definition of Glabal Warming, as does more snow.
Please also see prior posts about extreme weather. Recorder extreme cold temperatures have become less and less frequent, while extreme record hot temperatures are becoming more and more common.
Hope this helps.
We all heard the story that a frog already in a pan of warm water will not notice the heat until it is cooked and too late. Its senses are numbed.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWell, humans are no different. If our grandparents saw what is happening, they would be really scared.
Try to remember what our Grandparents saw - oceans full of fish and whales, Savannahs full of many types of animals, lush forests on every continent - a peak in diversity of life.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisNow, fishing takes people out much farther for much longer, many animals are extinct or nearly extinct. The lush forest is all but gone on North America and rain forests in Asia and South America are not far behind.
In addition to pumping the air full of pollutants we are removing the cleaners. Not good.
The time will come soon when all on Earth will look to the Heavens above.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL THAT LIVE BY THE SEA OR OCEAN SHORE AT 1 FOOT TO 50 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL. Or with in ten miles of the coast. World Wide.
This will be a very close call i pray it is only that. Discovered on December 28, 2005 by Robert McMillan of the Spacewatch Program A potentially hazardous Asteroid known as 2005 YU55.
This Asteroid some what Large 400 meter-sized type – C, will pass by the Earth right between our moon and Earth. On November 8, 2011.
The people on Earth have not seen a Asteroid of this size in advance. One this big Has not impacted Earth in over at least 4 thousand years.
Most Objects that have a diameters over 45 meters or 147.637 ft strike the Earth approximately once every thousand years or so. Lying flat everything for hundreds of miles.
Like the TUNGUSKA 1908 SIBERIA, RUSSIA CRASH OR Tunguska Explosion. This one did not even hit the Earth with its full Impact, it burst high in the air above the ground plowing it apart into many smaller parts. Making thousands of very deep holes in the Russian forests. Many of them in dense forest far from any roads or towns.
One 400 Meters 1,312.3 ft in diameter like this one YU55 weighing millions of tons would if impacted Earth on land would darken all of the Earth not for just days but much longer.
It would change the weather not seen on Earth in over thousands of years a massive climate change to say the least.
Asteroids in our Asteroid Belt that is between the orbits of Jupiter and Mars do have collisions and some do turn into meteoroids many in the past thousands of years have come into the Earth’s Atmosphere. Many of thousands of them make it into Meteorites the signs are all over the Earth, craters of all sizes.
Now Earth going through a Debris Field or Tail of a Comet or large Asteroid at almost the same time as Asteroid YU55 near Earth Miss? Debris fields some times are very Large to say the least.
The World and NASA will watch Outer Space very closely the next 30 days.
Most likely more Earthquakes and the Oceans Tide will be strongly affected just from a near miss. The Gravitational Effects from outer space will most likely effect Earth for days.
Let us all pray
this is just a near Earth miss or NEO (Near Earth Object) or Near Earth Orbit.
READ THE BIBLE
Judgment Day will come soon enough.
Please Look at this site it is NASA’s Near Earth Object Program.
neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/
UP COMING CLOSE APPROACHES TO EARTH
Then go to
(2005 YU55) NOV 8, 2011
(2005 XB1) NOV 8, 2011
(2011 TP6) NOV 2011
(2000 YA) DEC 26, 2011
Add a asteroid about a mile wide into this Equation and ???
Object ( 20011LC19 ) it to will be going by Earth around Oct 28, 2011 tru
Nov 4, 2011. It is 1.2km or 3,937Ft wide.
May The Lord GOD our Father in Heaven Watch over and Guide you.
GOD Bless
Read the Bible
John 8:12-31
The Lord’s Little Helper
Paul Felix Schott
The time will come soon when all on Earth will look to the Heavens above.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL THAT LIVE BY THE SEA OR OCEAN SHORE AT 1 FOOT TO 50 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL. Or with in ten miles of the coast. World Wide.
This will be a very close call i pray it is only that. Discovered on December 28, 2005 by Robert McMillan of the Spacewatch Program A potentially hazardous Asteroid known as 2005 YU55.
This Asteroid some what Large 400 meter-sized type – C, will pass by the Earth right between our moon and Earth. On November 8, 2011.
The people on Earth have not seen a Asteroid of this size in advance. One this big Has not impacted Earth in over at least 4 thousand years.
Most Objects that have a diameters over 45 meters or 147.637 ft strike the Earth approximately once every thousand years or so. Lying flat everything for hundreds of miles.
Like the TUNGUSKA 1908 SIBERIA, RUSSIA CRASH OR Tunguska Explosion. This one did not even hit the Earth with its full Impact, it burst high in the air above the ground plowing it apart into many smaller parts. Making thousands of very deep holes in the Russian forests. Many of them in dense forest far from any roads or towns.
One 400 Meters 1,312.3 ft in diameter like this one YU55 weighing millions of tons would if impacted Earth on land would darken all of the Earth not for just days but much longer.
It would change the weather not seen on Earth in over thousands of years a massive climate change to say the least.
Asteroids in our Asteroid Belt that is between the orbits of Jupiter and Mars do have collisions and some do turn into meteoroids many in the past thousands of years have come into the Earth’s Atmosphere. Many of thousands of them make it into Meteorites the signs are all over the Earth, craters of all sizes.
Now Earth going through a Debris Field or Tail of a Comet or large Asteroid at almost the same time as Asteroid YU55 near Earth Miss? Debris fields some times are very Large to say the least.
The World and NASA will watch Outer Space very closely the next 30 days.
Most likely more Earthquakes and the Oceans Tide will be strongly affected just from a near miss. The Gravitational Effects from outer space will most likely effect Earth for days.
Let us all pray
this is just a near Earth miss or NEO (Near Earth Object) or Near Earth Orbit.
READ THE BIBLE
Judgment Day will come soon enough.
Please Look at this site it is NASA’s Near Earth Object Program.
neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/
UP COMING CLOSE APPROACHES TO EARTH
Then go to
(2005 YU55) NOV 8, 2011
(2005 XB1) NOV 8, 2011
(2011 TP6) NOV 2011
(2000 YA) DEC 26, 2011
Add a asteroid about a mile wide into this Equation and ???
Object ( 20011LC19 ) it to will be going by Earth around Oct 28, 2011 tru
Nov 4, 2011. It is 1.2km or 3,937Ft wide.
May The Lord GOD our Father in Heaven Watch over and Guide you.
GOD Bless
Read the Bible
John 8:12-31
The Lord’s Little Helper
Paul Felix Schott
The time will come soon when all on Earth will look to the Heavens above.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL THAT LIVE BY THE SEA OR OCEAN SHORE AT 1 FOOT TO 50 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL. Or with in ten miles of the coast. World Wide.
This will be a very close call i pray it is only that. Discovered on December 28, 2005 by Robert McMillan of the Spacewatch Program A potentially hazardous Asteroid known as 2005 YU55.
This Asteroid some what Large 400 meter-sized type – C, will pass by the Earth right between our moon and Earth. On November 8, 2011.
The people on Earth have not seen a Asteroid of this size in advance. One this big Has not impacted Earth in over at least 4 thousand years.
Most Objects that have a diameters over 45 meters or 147.637 ft strike the Earth approximately once every thousand years or so. Lying flat everything for hundreds of miles.
Like the TUNGUSKA 1908 SIBERIA, RUSSIA CRASH OR Tunguska Explosion. This one did not even hit the Earth with its full Impact, it burst high in the air above the ground plowing it apart into many smaller parts. Making thousands of very deep holes in the Russian forests. Many of them in dense forest far from any roads or towns.
One 400 Meters 1,312.3 ft in diameter like this one YU55 weighing millions of tons would if impacted Earth on land would darken all of the Earth not for just days but much longer.
It would change the weather not seen on Earth in over thousands of years a massive climate change to say the least.
Asteroids in our Asteroid Belt that is between the orbits of Jupiter and Mars do have collisions and some do turn into meteoroids many in the past thousands of years have come into the Earth’s Atmosphere. Many of thousands of them make it into Meteorites the signs are all over the Earth, craters of all sizes.
Now Earth going through a Debris Field or Tail of a Comet or large Asteroid at almost the same time as Asteroid YU55 near Earth Miss? Debris fields some times are very Large to say the least.
The World and NASA will watch Outer Space very closely the next 30 days.
Most likely more Earthquakes and the Oceans Tide will be strongly affected just from a near miss. The Gravitational Effects from outer space will most likely effect Earth for days.
Let us all pray
this is just a near Earth miss or NEO (Near Earth Object) or Near Earth Orbit.
READ THE BIBLE
Judgment Day will come soon enough.
Please Look at this site it is NASA’s Near Earth Object Program.
neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/
UP COMING CLOSE APPROACHES TO EARTH
Then go to
(2005 YU55) NOV 8, 2011
(2005 XB1) NOV 8, 2011
(2011 TP6) NOV 2011
(2000 YA) DEC 26, 2011
Add a asteroid about a mile wide into this Equation and ???
Object ( 20011LC19 ) it to will be going by Earth around Oct 28, 2011 tru
Nov 4, 2011. It is 1.2km or 3,937Ft wide.
May The Lord GOD our Father in Heaven Watch over and Guide you.
GOD Bless
Read the Bible
John 8:12-31
The Lord’s Little Helper
Paul Felix Schott