Even though most people aren't math whizzes, they have a decent estimate of risk probability as long as it's described well, he said. For instance, in a survey Jordan conducted, Californians knew they faced fairly high odds of seeing a major earthquake, and that the state's southern region faces greater risk than Northern California, he said.

At the end of the day, public officials should have a set of protocols in place that use these estimates of risk, elevated activity and uncertainty to make their evacuation calls.

• Image Gallery: Deadly Earthquakes
• Top 10 Ways to Destroy Earth
• Natural Disasters: Top 10 U.S. Threats

Copyright 2012 LiveScience, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

5 Comments

1. 1. rshoff 07:22 PM 12/12/12

   I'm still trying to digest this. Are scientists really spending 6 years in prison because of the failure of public policy? Are the politicians going to jail too, because all things equal, they should. Were there underlying criminal actions that we're not aware of? This just cannot be true. Do the Italians still believe the world is flat and that science comes from a book of answers? Everybody who has been to junior high school should know that earthquakes are unpredictable and can happen at any time. So are hurricanes, tornados, tsunamis, etc, etc, etc.

   Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this

2. 2. alan6302 08:36 PM 12/12/12

   If something happens on dec 21, NASA will be in big trouble.

   Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this

3. 3. rshoff in reply to alan6302 08:47 PM 12/12/12

   Then we should throw them in jail now! We may not have the chance if we wait! ;-)

   Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this

4. 4. nissankananayakkara 06:36 AM 12/13/12

   Science still looks in its early stage while we are seeking solutions for most of the open questions notably in geology of this planet. So far Plate tectonics,progressing of space exploration as well have made us stunned last few years.The instruments planet having now are still to-be-improved stage.Exploration is to be going on until we find better predictions when the unknown crosses our path.Everybody living on this planet is a free thinker.

   Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this

5. 5. ErnestPayne 05:07 PM 12/13/12

   The geologists looked at the situation and went with the very high odds there would not be another event. They must know how Galileo felt.

   Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this