About half of the two dozen Antarctic species that Peck has studied seem to do fine in water 2 °C warmer than current maximum summer temperatures — but the rest seem to suffer. “At least two of the species that we think are going to be the first [to disappear] could give problems for the balance of the ecosystem,” he says. Those are the Antarctic clam (Laternula elliptica) and the shallow-water brittlestar (Ophionotus victoriae), both mainstay species that eat dead plankton and other organic trash that falls from above, and turn it into the biomass that feeds everything else on the sea floor. But these species either die or become dangerously sluggish at even 1 °C above current summer highs — temperatures that could become widespread in 50–100 years.
If rising temperatures cause brittlestars and clams to disappear, then more falling detritus might be consumed by microbes instead of being converted into edible biomass — meaning that it would sustain fewer animals, overall, on the sea floor. Alternatively, filter-feeding sponges might multiply to fill the niche. Either way, the mix of species supported further up the food chain might no longer include large numbers of archaic predators such as starfish, ribbon worms and sea spiders.
Julian Gutt, a marine ecologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany, admires Smith's work with the crabs, but withholds final judgement on whether the crustaceans are a new piece of this destructive puzzle, or a long-present fixture. Repeat surveys showing that the crabs are expanding their foothold over time would confirm an invasion, he says. But “if they move into new habitat, some serious impact is quite likely”.
Aronson, for one, will be watching closely for signs that this is happening. And in his experience, optimism is not warranted. “Every time we make a prediction of what we think will happen in the next 50 years, then poof, 10 years later, there it is,” he says. “So I think this is going to be happening more rapidly than, as conservative scientists, we're used to predicting.”
This article is reproduced with permission from the magazine Nature. The article was first published on December 12, 2012.
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11 Comments
Add CommentBut...but I thought all global warming was based on flawed computer models by people who wanted to stay inside and make more computer models so I would have to shiver in the cold. Are you saying there are actual observations of change? /sarcasm
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIn before the denialists...
Are these king crabs the same as caught in the northern waters for human food, If so then fishermen should be told that there is good fishing in the Antarctic and this might alleviate the menace some what,
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI participated in the 2010 Antarctic research cruise and made a short film about the King Crab discoveries. It can be seen at www.crabnet.tv or at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVNTfpDlPzE.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this“They're natural invaders, ... They're coming in with the warmer water.”
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe human species makes the water warmer and they are the invaders?
http://blogdredd.blogspot.com/2012/12/new-climate-catastrophe-criminality.html
King crabs are just one of many species shifting habitats, or rather shifting locals, as the climate changes. For instance, there is the lovely armadillo.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://mdc4.mdc.mo.gov/Documents/16308.pdf
I suspect the armadillo is having less impact that the king crabs are, but species shifts are not really a new thing. The effects of a changing climate are already under way.
Have Red Lobster lower the price on Crab Festival. Enlist the show Deadliest Catch. Problem solved.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOr, tell the Chinese King Crab helps with iron-rod erections. Problem solved twice.
Did these crabs move into these same waters during the last interglacial, when it was much warmer than now?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisQuinn- LOL!
Comment by Carlyle on another article: "So although the West antarctic melted entirely 3 million years ago, the original authors claim the crabs MAY have been excluded for fourteen My, just for luck SIAM doubled it & then rounded up a further 2 My & when I challenged them they deleted my post. I hope you can begin to see that this is not aberant behaviour. It is typical. You can look up the Ice record for Antarctica yourself if you doubt me. There could even have been later melts & almost certainly numerous times that match the present."
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI did not see the original post, but why would SA delete this?
There is an abundance of crab because we have killed most of their preditors, so there is no need for fishermen to go far to get crab.
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Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this1. SteveO
08:00 PM 12/12/12 writes...
......But...but I thought all global warming was based on flawed computer models by people who wanted to stay inside and make more computer models so I would have to shiver in the cold. Are you saying there are actual observations of change? /sarcasm...
Perhaps SteveO missed the comment in the article where Domack says the process started at the end of the Little Ice Age. (at the top of page 3 in the article)
The computer models referred to by SteveO such as the hockey stick put forth by Mann and others show that there was no such thing. Despite a multitude of historical references documenting said climate, people like Gore, Hansen and David Suzuki regularly use many computer models to show that _all_ climate variation in the last ten thousand years or so is anthropogenic.
The most amusing comment that I have read that justifies rejecting historical evidence in favor of computer models is the belief the Medieval Warming Period and subsequent Little Ice Age documentation was all part of a massive real estate scam run by the Vikings.(!!??!!)
http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/2013/01/are-king-crabs-really-poised-to-kill.html Good comment. I linked it.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhile I am skeptical of global warming alarmism, I do not want to see gentle sea pigs wiped out by giant crabs. I do not discount some global warming is taking place. It is, the planet is getting warmer (whether that is because of the natural cycles or is completely man made remains to be seen). But this has also happened in the past and I suspect these fluctuations in predator prey overlap in Antarctica have happened before too. But I would suggest we investigate further and see if that is the case (or not).