When regions reach a 'breaking point'
Michael Werz, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and a lead author of a recent study examining the links among climate change, migration and conflict in northwest Africa, said the scenario that aid workers such as Thomas fear, of local communities growing weary of refugees, is a real one. Patterns of refugee crises exist in many parts of the world of countries starting off accepting their neighbors with a solidarity that eventually gives way to frustration, he said.
"Even in a country like Turkey where there are a lot of Syrian refugees in a country that is fairly well off and well-organized, patience wears thin," he said. "Then, if you have a political situation, it just takes one conflict or one crime of opportunity to have a situation in which people take political advantage and lobby against the refugees."
In northwest Africa, where what Werz has called an "arc of tension" runs through Nigeria, Niger, Algeria and Morocco, he said the projected massive population growth combined with small-onset changes brought about by climate change -- like sea-level rise along the Niger Delta, the loss of hundreds of villages through desertification and the virtual disappearance of Lake Chad -- is bad enough.
Add to that neighboring countries like Algeria, and now Mali, that have an influx of weapons and established al-Qaida structures, he said, "and you have different pressure points that, if they come together at any given time or in any given region compounded by migratory flows, exacerbate problems to a degree that can be to the breaking point."
Werz called for a comprehensive strategy that includes diplomatic measures, short-term and long-term development policies "and a strategy that doesn't shy away from looking at the security dimension," something he said "we just don't have at this moment."
Meanwhile, Thomas said, aid workers want to see more resources put into the Sahel region, which is on the brink of its third major food shortage in seven years. In a region where 80 percent of the population relies on natural resources, conflicts can easily turn droughts into famines. Meanwhile, she said, food insecurity exacerbates conflicts and governments need to start thinking long-term.
"There needs to be a lot more focus on long-term development assistance in this part of the world," she said. "It's very obvious that the main way the U.S. and the E.U. have been operating in the region is though humanitarian response." But she added, "As these emergencies are coming closer and closer together, it becomes more and more important that you can build resilience that is actually effective."
Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500
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10 Comments
Add CommentThese people are not our pets. They have brains. It's their choice to have a half dozen children or not.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisBecause of global warming and ignorant, fearful people in the rich world who contribute most to this man made climate devastation these people are doomed.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere will be winners and losers and the losers, maybe 4,000,000,000 people will die prematurely due to drought, food shortage, small arms wars, machetes, clubs, stones and first world bariers such as mine fields, mortar rounds and boat sinking.
LETS NOT PRETEND that the rich world will take any responsibility what so ever for rich-man-made GLOBAL WARMING.
Yeah, it is all about how many kids they have, not about oh, the multiple gigatons of CO2 we put in the air that changed their climate. Or how about the $100 billion a year worth of weapons the US exports...
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt is mighty convenient to just call your neighbors dumbasses and tell them to fend for themselves. Funny how what goes around comes around though.
Yes of course, there has never ever been a war in the past over food. Nor has there ever been famine and other logistical issues for the victims and refugees of a war. In fact, humans have never had a war ever until climate change arrived and of course it is all the evil industrialized nations and their horrendous use of the automobile that creates thugs and tyrants in Africa and a population of males who are willing to run around raping, pillaging and killing everyone.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOh, yes of course, there has never been rape, pillaging and killing off of populations until the evil industrialized world came on the scene.
Yet another example of warmists and their ridiculous logic and linking of unrelated events. Sorry, humans have actually warred over food and even lesser reasons and none of it was due to global warming. The industrialized west came into existence to get away from the ridiculous tribe concept and that a people are subject to king, dictator or idiot chieftain. It is not the wests's fault that africa has not caught up to the rest of the world. Should I point out that this kind of insanity in the article doesnt actually happen in the industrialized world? and sorry it is not because we stole something from these morons. They are the ones who keep allowing violent thugs run their countries. The people their outnumber the thugs, they could kill them off instead. But no lets blame it all on the global warming and the industrialized world.
SA editors are showing their bias again. This article is not science it is pure speculation that is not even realistic.
It's ironic that the WWF is creating thousands of real eco-refugees by forcing them off their ancestral homelands and burning their homes so that they can construct "ethical" coconut plantations and eco-playgrounds where locals are banned but uber-rich jet setters can slaughter elephants, lions etc... for a fat fee of course.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI'd hazard to say that the only real eco-refugees are the ones created by the eco-movement itself.
Der Spiegel did an expose on this.
All of you mindless eco-nuts should read where your hard earned $$ are going.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/wwf-helps-industry-more-than-environment-a-835712.html
How would you feel if Yellowstone was take over by the WWF, taxpayers were banned from setting foot in there, but the WWF constructed 5-star accomodation for only those wealthy enough to pay for the honor of shooting a wolf elk or bison. This is what the eco-movement has in minfd for you. They are already beta-testing it in Africa.
How many of you remember Biafra?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://lalitkumar.in/blog/biafra-famine-famous-photograph/
Or Bangladesh
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_famines
On & on back beyond biblical times but this time is different. Yeah right.
Really, this is too much - the article presents the horrible conditions for at lease several hundred thousand people - imparted by critically inadequate environmental resources and overpopulation, compounded by desperate local political greed, and we are then asked to worry about how these poor people will be affected by global warming nearly 40 years from now?!? Really - this is too much!!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAlternatively, we can detach ourselves from any emotive issues and analyze these poor peoples' conditions, since understanding their dynamics may become critical for our own survival in the future. Please see "Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse", http://www.sciencemag.org/content/336/6085/1175
Birth control pills and condoms...'nuff said.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou do have a good point there. I would think the guy watching his son killed by local government thugs in his African nation, older daughters being hauled away to some arab sex slave compound in north Africa and then the poor guy watching the little food he can grow being hauled away by his chieftain has much more pressing concerns than some goofy global warming scam that has an effect 50 years from now.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisBut then warmists are generally environmental wackos anyway and they really do not care how many humans die as long as some dumb ass insect, algae or animal survives.
Some of the comment in this discussion exhibit some of the most blatant racist and ignorant statements I have ever witnessed in a public forum. The fact that there is little to no intelligent discussion on the web site of the major scientific publication is an absolute shame.
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