Musk figures the colony program — which he wants to be a collaboration between government and private enterprise — would end up costing about $36 billion. He arrived at that number by estimating that a colony that costs 0.25 percent or 0.5 percent of a nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) would be considered acceptable.
The United States' GDP in 2010 was $14.5 trillion; 0.25 percent of $14.5 trillion is $36 billion. If all 80,000 colonists paid $500,000 per seat for their Mars trip, $40 billion would be raised.
"Some money has to be spent on establishing a base on Mars. It’s about getting the basic fundamentals in place," Musk said. "That was true of the English colonies [in the Americas]; it took a significant expense to get things started. But once there are regular Mars flights, you can get the cost down to half a million dollars for someone to move to Mars. Then I think there are enough people who would buy that to have it be a reasonable business case."
The big reusable rocket
The fully reusable rocket that Musk wants to take colonists to Mars is an evolution of SpaceX's Falcon 9 booster, which launches Dragon.
"It’s going to be much bigger [than Falcon 9], but I don’t think we’re quite ready to state the payload. We’ll speak about that next year," Musk said, emphasizing that only fully reusable rockets and spacecraft would keep the ticket price for Mars migration as low as $500,000.
SpaceX is already testing what Musk calls a next-generation, reusable Falcon 9 rocket that can take off vertically and land vertically. The prototype, called Grasshopper, is a Falcon 9 first stage with landing legs.
Grasshoper has made two short flights. The first was on Sept. 21 and reached a height of 6 feet (2 meters); the second test, on Nov. 1, was to a height of 17.7 feet (5.4 m). A planned milestone for the Grasshopper project is to reach an altitude of 100 feet (30 m). [Grasshopper Rocket's 2-Story Test Flight (Video)]
"Over the next few months, we’ll gradually increase the altitude and speed," Musk said. "I do think there probably will be some craters along the way; we’ll be very lucky if there are no craters. Vertical landing is an extremely important breakthrough — extreme, rapid reusability. It’s as close to aircraft-like dispatch capability as one can achieve."
Musk wants to have a reusable Falcon 9 first stage, which uses Grasshopper technology, come back from orbit in "the next year or two." He then wants to use this vertical-landing technology for Falcon 9’s upper stage.
Musk hopes to have a fully reusable version of Falcon 9 in five or six years, but he acknowledged that those could be "famous last words."
A rocket stepping stone
Another stepping stone toward the planned reusable Mars rocket is SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy launcher. With a first flight planned for next year from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Heavy is a Falcon 9 that has two Falcon 9 first stages bolted on either side.
Musk expects the Falcon Heavy to launch from Florida's Cape Canaveral eventually. This triple-first-stage rocket will be able to put 116,600 pounds (53,000 kilograms) into a 124-mile (200 kilometers) low-Earth orbit. But the Falcon Heavy is still much smaller than Musk’s fully reusable Mars rocket, which will also employ a new engine.
While Musk declines to state what the Mars rocket’s payload capability will be, he does say it will use a new staged combustion cycle engine called Raptor. The cycle involves two steps. Propellant — the fuel and oxidizer — is ignited in pre-burners to produce hot high-pressure gases that help pump propellant into the engine’s combustion chamber. The hot gases are then directed into the same chamber to aid in the combustion of the propellants.
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25 Comments
Add CommentI am sure he has a better chance than NASA at getting there first.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisTo gain the support needed, we will have to eliminate poverty. To eliminate poverty educate everyone for the information age.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thiswww.facebook.com/pages/The-Chess-America-Projects-supporter-page/148190811939961
Always good to find people willing to look to the future. Now if more of the readers would.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this36 Billion, thats it? Its chump change to the parasite politicians of America and barely a scratch in the personal wealth of a few billionaires. Why bother with government at all, just do it from private investment. Get politicians involved and it will never work or cost about 200 billion but 200 billion to politicians is still chump change.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"At Mars, you can start a self-sustaining civilization and grow it into something really big..."
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIMO, somebody's dangerously delusional! How about a demonstration project in the desert? Hasn't that failed once already? Maybe it'd be good to produce a successful pilot before sending up even a few people you might not be able to retrieve...
On the other hand, we desperately need to reduce the population of Earth, so maybe would should convince a few billion volunteers to get on a spaceship...
I don't know why people would react negatively to this idea, it is the natural progression for us to spread life to other planets. From what I've read on the topic the technology we have at the moment is good enough to do the job. Exploring the solar system will advance technology in a way that will benefit conditions on Earth i have no doubt.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere has to be an economic motive for people to
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisgo there. If there was gold, diamonds , or some
other substance that could be produced for a profit
then colonists would go there. No one is going to
pay 500,000 to go there and live just for the
scenery or the beach. You have to make a business case or
all the technology in the world is still not going to
make people want to go there.
Instead of setting up a human settlement straight at Mars, why not to set up a human colony at much nearer Moon or some near asteroid like Vesta as a pilot project?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAs I said earlier, I'd suggest the successful demonstration of a totally self-sufficient colony somewhere closer to Los Angles, for example, before sending even expert tourists off-planet to risk their lives - where they can't be quickly retrieved in the event of an emergency...
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOff-world colonies would make great locations for the Survivor reality show series, although voting contestants out would be a little severe! It'd also be a great way to finance the program - I mean project...
I would agree on the Moon colony first, but why Vesta? It is much further and Much more difficult than even Mars. Perhaps Phobos or Deimos, to avoid the Martian landing, but then, the Martian surface would be better.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe significantly lower gravity and lower abundance of natural resources make the moon and Vespa poor choices for a self-sustaining colony. For example, the lack of atmosphere on either body would make demonstrating the feasibility of pressurized domes impossible. While the shorter time-of-flight would be preferable for humanity's first attempt at an extraterrestrial colony, we still have to balance the availability of resources with safety factors
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI suppose they might find something with economic value after they get there; but same applies to Antarctica, or the Chang Thang, which have better climates.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this> I'd suggest the successful demonstration of a totally self-sufficient colony somewhere closer to Los Angeles
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisHow about Atlanta? That is near where I plan to build an 85% self sufficient community. 100% is hard to do, so 85% is a starting goal, with future improvement over time. Also over time moving to more difficult environments, like deserts, oceans, and ice caps.
There does not always have to be a financial motive. there are always other motives. Being part of the first space colony that survives would be a big incentive for SOME people. Talk about making history.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI suspect all the first European colonists in the Americas and Australia were considered to be delusional by their stay at home relatives.
One caution about greenhouses on Mars. Mars does not have a magnetosphere that acts as a shield against hard radiation. Plants are also susceptible to radiation affects that may accelerate mutations that may ultimately change or destroy a crop.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe greenhouses might have to be underground with filtered sunlight light-piped in.
Why are these people automatically assuming that they can make "space law"? The children and grandchildren of the world own this property. Not the millionaires (also known as the 1%er's) who want to spread the disease of misguided and selfish capitalism to other planetary bodies.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisActually nobody owns this property. If millionaires want to spread the "disease of misguided and selfish capitalism" to other planetary bodies, I wish them the best of luck :-) They're the ones who initiate and promote innovation and exploration, not the people who live off their efforts and condemn them for their contributions.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisGiven Mr. Musk's track record of success, why do you call this something out of 5th grade? It isn't heavy on details but most of that is probably protected by patent or copyright.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI read a short story about that once, it was pretty funny.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI think that perhaps as the climate continues to change of the Earth we may get a great deal of experience with surviving hostile environments. Some of that experience will translate to extraterrestrial survival.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI really think that a long term strategy for colonizing Mars has to involve adding mass to Mars. As we eventually mine the asteroids we can shoot the waste material in small chunks in a gentle trajectory to Mars. After a couple millenia Mars would have the mass to hold a denser atmosphere, which would be shipped in from the rings of the gas giants.
For the short term I think Mr. Musk needs to consider a huge array of survival requirements that range from physical all the way through to mental equilibrium. Living in cramped modules with little sunlight and death just the other side of the wall is likely to be stressful.
I doubt that Mars has coal or oil so solar or nuclear energy would likely be required. Solar would be subject to serious challenges and I doubt anyone wants nuclear power plants launched overhead.
It is a simple enough business model. The reasons to go are complex - ask the Pilgrim Fathers of 1630, or Chevalier De LaSalle, or Samuel Champlain all of whom were 6 months to a year away from relief - assuming they could get the message to relief that they needed it... Which the Martian colony will be able to do in about 30 minutes, not 6 months or a year.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt is a simple enough business model. The reasons to go are complex - ask the Pilgrim Fathers of 1630, or Chevalier De LaSalle, or Samuel Champlain all of whom were 6 months to a year away from relief - assuming they could get the message to relief that they needed it... Which the Martian colony will be able to do in about 30 minutes, not 6 months or a year.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou send the power plant in pieces, and the reactor mass in little pieces (or as nuclear waste sent for disposal then you bring up a heavy water reactor that is designed to run on 7 mil fuel and you've got 9 mil 'waste' - works for me).
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisElon Musk = Cha-ching!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisGive him $500k and he'll throw you into space! If he fails, who's going to sue? In what court.
Comment to Bill Lasley:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYour thinking is backwards. We need to develop the resources of Space and the Moon to generate the GNP to eliminate such things as poverty and homelessness. Economic properity is not created out of thin air, but it can be created out of the vacuum of Space.