From the August 2004 Scientific American Magazine | 0 comments

Miracle on Probability Street ( Preview )

The Law of Large Numbers guarantees that one-in-a-million miracles happen 295 times a day in America

By Michael Shermer

More from the Magazine

August
2004 Issue
Innovations Penny-wise Smart Labels
Technicalities Crippled but Not Crashed
News Scan Outsourcing Drug Work
Buy the Digital Edition

Because I am often introduced as a "professional skeptic," people feel compelled to challenge me with stories about highly improbable events. The implication is that if I cannot offer a satisfactory natural explanation for that particular event, the general principle of supernaturalism is preserved. A common story is the one about having a dream or thought about the death of a friend or relative and then receiving a phone call five minutes later about the unexpected death of that very person.

I cannot always explain such specific incidents, but a principle of probability called the Law of Large Numbers shows that an event with a low probability of occurrence in a small number of trials has a high probability of occurrence in a large number of trials. Events with million-to-one odds happen 295 times a day in America.

Already a Digital subscriber? Sign-in Now
If your institution has site license access, enter here.

Read Comments (0) | Post a comment

You Might Also Like

Discuss This Article

Click here to submit your comment.

VIEW:



	Email:
	Name:
	Address:
	Address 2:
	City:
	State:

Subscription Center

Editor's Pick

Adapting to the Freshwater CrisisForward-thinking experts are getting a better handle on the growing global water shortage and coming up with innovative approaches to ensuring the security, safety and sustainability of this resource