PLANE AS DAY? The so-called mystery missile may simply have been a jet airliner, such as this one, viewed from an unusually head-on perspective.
Image: Hendrik Harms via Wikimedia Commons
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When the crew of a KCBS television news helicopter caught sight of a growing, glowing streak in the evening sky off the southern California coast November 8, experts and amateurs alike began to wonder just what this "mystery missile" was.
To the dismay of conspiracy theorists everywhere, the sky trail seems to have been caused by an ordinary passenger plane, according to the Pentagon and some independent experts. "It's clearly an airplane contrail," says John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org in Alexandria, Va. Aside from the visual evidence, which Pike says looks more like the trail of a jet than the trail of a rocket, "every non-airplane explanation requires heroic assumptions," such as an undetected foreign attack off the coast. "Possibly it's the blue whales signaling to the space people," Pike says, tongue in cheek. "Possibly it's the finger of God foretelling the doom of Los Angeles."
The airplane explanation was put forth rather quickly by Contrail Science, which demonstrated how an airplane flying horizontally toward a viewer can, from certain perspectives, mimic the appearance of a rocket flying vertically into the sky. The Web site and others even identified a likely suspect for the optical illusion: U.S. Airways flight 808, from Honolulu to Phoenix.
The KCBS news copter observation can be explained by a fortuitous alignment of flight path and viewer, combined with clear skies that allow the contrail to be visible all the way to the horizon. "Normally the airplane is going to be flying at some direction other than straight toward you, and normally you're not going to see it at sunset with clear skies," Pike says. "It is unusual but not unprecedented," he adds, noting that Contrail Science has a number of photographic examples.
The simple explanation also agrees with the military's inquiry, which turned up no missile launches—planned or accidental, foreign or domestic—that would fit the bill. In an e-mail, U.S. Department of Defense spokesperson Col. Dave Lapan said he informed the Pentagon press corps November 10 that "there is no evidence to suggest that the condensation trail observed off the coast of southern California on Monday evening was anything other than a contrail from an aircraft."
But Theodore Postol, a professor of science, technology and international security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is not yet convinced. The Pentagon, he wrote in an e-mail, has provided no detailed information to support the aircraft claim. "One of their jobs is to provide air surveillance for the country, and they should be able to provide a convincing analysis supported by data for their conclusion," said Postol, who furnished photographs of the mystery contrail along with remarkably similar pictures of solid-propellant missile launches. "I do not know what to think at this point," he said, "but one thing is for sure, the Pentagon has not provided a plausible explanation of the observed event."
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20 Comments
Add CommentIf I understand correctly, the horizontal contrail producing a vertical illusion requires that the airplane be cruising at high altitude and great distance for the length of the contrail.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe object appears in the CBS video to be traveling at to great a relative velocity to be at very high altitude.
IMO this must have been a vertical contrail produced by a nearby vertical launch of a private missile. The apparent distant launch site could have been an illusion...
Otherwise, it must have been a duck smoking a cigar shot from a cannon~~~
If it was just a passenger jet, this begs the question of why our defenses are not equipped to rapidly link visual observations to instrument readings. This would be important if, for example, the first report of an airplane hijacking is a civilian report of a plane behaving erratically. One would think that 10 years after 9/11 they would have this down pat.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFancy equipment is a lot more useful when the data it gives can be quickly and easily related to sensory observations. If they can't do this even after several days, one has got to wonder how useful all this expensive equipment our taxes are paying for would be in the face of a clever foe.
Since witnesses noticed that it had no wings, it must have been released too soon by Boeing,
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou are all wrong.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt was another water heater from Jamie and Adam at Mythbusters.
The problem with the missile theory is speed. ICBMs are deliberately designed with a very fast boost phase. This is because the only phase of operation of an ICBM is the powered boost phase, which normally lasts for no more than 5 minutes at most. You would also note separation of the booster at then end of the boost phase.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIn other words a long range missile would move up through the sky and into the exosphere in only a couple of minutes, where its exhaust trail would look quite different, and then it would just end with a booster separation and entry of the payload bus into its ballistic cruise phase. This would look quite different overall.
A surface to air missile would also probably travel more rapidly, as again you have a fairly short and high boost launch.
If you look at some of the sections of the tape in the middle where the camera has pulled back you can quite easily see the trail as what looks like a horizontal contrail and not a vertical exhaust trail. As for 'wingless' you're looking at something through 50 miles of air (or more) with a video camera held in someone's hands, you really can't say the object was wingless, just that it appeared to be oblong.
I mean it isn't impossible it could be a missile, but the mundane explanation is far more credible than people are likely to credit. Mysteries are more interesting than answers to mysteries.
Why hasn't it occured to the press, Pentagon, and our government that this could have been a submarine launched missle? The Chinese, North Koreans would all be eager to send a message to us.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI hadn't even considered that the missile was an ICBM: I guess there's more than one missile theory.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt seems more likely that, if it was a missile, it was a small private missile. There are a number of amateur missile manufacturing clubs that enter into at least one annual competition.
As I mentioned in comment #1, it appears to me that the CBS video shown an object moving to fast relative to the camera to be a high altitude airliner:
A http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7040407n
However, I (and many others) could be wrong. Interestingly, in the follow-up story video the object does not appear to be moving at all:
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7042326n&tag=related;photovideo
Of course, it could be a conspiracy to cover-up that cigar-smoking duck I mentioned in comment #1...
I believe Obama launched something into space to help his re-election chances in 2012. Something very embarassing. Some big liability.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisBy the way, has anyone seen Biden lately??
It was the dolphins saying "So long and thanks for all the fish.".
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIf so it is the strangest contrail I have ever seen. On the other hand, I was in Kauai last week which is home to the US combined forces missile defense testing facility. That facility was planning to undergo a series of tests. These tests consist of firing a dummy missile from a ship or submarine which the test facility then attempts to shoot down. Late last week the facility executed a test where the navy fired a missile from a ship near the Philippines. It is entirely possible if what as seen from LA was missile launch, it was a part of this series of tests. Usually these test firings occur at night so as to "not alarm the natives". Note that the country changed its clocks back standard time last week. Our ships do not do the daylight saving time thing so it is possible that a confusion over local time lead to a test missile (if it was one) being fired while it was still visible from the west coast. An hour later and it would have been too dark to notice it. Embarrassing yes; but not a conspiracy.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWell, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, right? It was probably a jet plane's contrail at just the right perspective to cause the illusion.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI will say though that it was one wierd as heck looking contrail - not like one I've seen before.
Also, if it was some kind of rocket, I'd never admit to it because that would be a pretty lame looking launch to me. More like a rocket launch failure.
I like the "So long and thanks for all the fish" comment - that one cracked me up. Thanks iDr.
Over the years I've seen many missile launches, from Vandenburg and from subs off San Nicholas Island.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe V'burg missiles would go west to the Kwajalien area, or south for polar orbits.
The SLBMs went south.
There's no land masses south of here to have problems with re-entries.
I've seen two simultaneous SLBM lanches, twice.
Both times the missiles went south, and while in view, the deployment of the MIRVs on board was seen.
None of this applies to this instance.
Vandenburg is pretty close to due north of the imaging site.
San Nicholas Island is right next to it, and also north.
The wide shape of the trail at its beginning is typical of a constant altitude aircraft contrail being smeared
by wind shears.
The more solid form is also normal.
The position of the sunset on that day was an azimuth of 253°, or southwest from the LA area.
That is the location of the flight path of US Air 808, which comes from Hawaii everyday at that time of day.
For the length of time this object is visible, a missile would have moved completely out of sight.
It's US Air 808.
The next day, with a head's up, the -same thing- was observed at the -same time-!
That there was and has been no official confirmation of this is puzzling to disappointing.
Any decent data base on the subject could, if queried, find all the official traffic due through that
area at that time of day.
Right - if it was a jet, as the Pentagon claims, then just <<identify>> it, just give us the flight number. The military is trying to tell us that it doesn't know exactly what that was? Makes a general comment but can't provide specifics? What are our enemies waiting for? We're helpless before them with this kind of incompetency. Aircraft in the sky without identity? Generals talking through their scrabbled egged hats? If it wasn't so scary, it would be laughable!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisDo read the post immediately above yours.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisthis was a ufo cant anyone see the ufos in the video there are atleast 4 of them get a pair of glases !
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI think most poster are barking up the wrong tree. It's not an airliner contrail-unless the airliner was doing barrel rolls. The contrail is all wrong. Incidentally, where are the other contrails? The 808 flight out of Honolulu does not fit. The missile theory doesn't work due to short duration and slower speed.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisBut what does work is a X-51 Waverider type launch of a scram-jet. I suspect that the public Waverider dropped from under the wing of a B-52H back in may of this year has a bigger brother (or sister) that is a bit more robust. There have been several of these sightings with no satisfactory explanation including one over a small fishing village in Newfoundland,Canada last January.
Re this quote from John Pike:
"To the dismay of conspiracy theorists everywhere, the sky trail seems to have been caused by an ordinary passenger plane, according to the Pentagon and some independent experts. "It's clearly an airplane contrail," says John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org in Alexandria, Va."
It is most definitely not an airliner contrail.
I suggest Pike find himself a new line of work. And stop using the fallback 'conspiracy theorists' cope-out to try and bolster your argument. It is silly.
Further to my last comment I meant to add that the picture with John Matson's article is not the one in question near LA. However one can use the picture above to compare with the contrail from whatever this was at:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/11/10/earlyshow/main7040379.shtml
and clearly see that this is not an airliner contrail.
jtdwyer, the camera man zoomed in at the start of the video, creating an illusion of the object moving fast. This fooled me also the first time I watched it. Later, when the zoom is constant, you can see that it is moving quite slow.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisengineeringtech, the missile did not show up on radar. The FAA controllers usually immediately notify all aircraft when a unknown target appears on the radar. This happens too fast for the DOD or other agency to suppress the FAA's normal response. Since the rocket plume also reflects radar, you can't really build a stealth missile. Another issue is that the US has a great record on tracking other countries submarines, and according to Wikipedia, China is still using diesel electric subs.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisTo help explain this apparent missile launch have produced a descriptive report and analysis of the event posted at:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thiswww.phisicalpsience.com/public/California_Mystery_Missile/california_mystery_missile.html
What is essential to notice, and habitually overlooked is that the plume emanates from a location forward of the vanishing horizon, hence ipso facto that the vehicle and plume start point is not that of a stratospherically placed contrail.
Park McGraw
Phisical Psience ΦΨ