Albert Einstein once commented that “a person who has not made his great contribution to science before the age of 30 will never do so.” This may have been an accurate reflection of physics in his time, but it is no longer the case—for physics or any other field. Benjamin Jones, an expert in innovation at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, and Bruce Weinberg of Ohio State University analyzed 525 Nobel Prizes awarded in physics, chemistry and medicine between 1900 and 2008. With a few exceptions—notably quantum mechanics discoveries of the 1920s and 1930s—the trend across all fields is toward researchers being older when they produce their greatest work.   

To explain the aging effect, Jones and Weinberg suggest a shift from theoretical work, in which youngsters do better, toward experimental work, which requires aggregation of knowledge. They also believe that as fields expand, it may take longer to accumulate the knowledge necessary to make a novel contribution.  

Those younger than 30 need not despair, though. The anomaly of quantum physics suggests that, in the case of a scientific revolution where established knowledge can be a hindrance rather than a help, the trend might reverse. “If there are future revolutions out there, it may make people younger yet again,” Jones remarks.

7 Comments

1. 1. gesimsek 02:16 PM 12/20/11

   If only we employed the rocket scientists in their own area rather than wall-street banks, we were already there

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2. 2. dbtinc 08:34 AM 1/16/12

   maybe it's because there are fewer young people doing science? ya think?

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3. 3. jtdwyer 10:57 AM 1/16/12

   The article states: "...in the case of a scientific revolution where established knowledge can be a hindrance rather than a help..."
   
   Perhaps in those instances, those with experience in other fields, without extensive training in the subject area, may be able to contribute. Please see a brief commentary with references:
   "On not being the first to discover no galactic dark matter",
   http://sciencewithoutfiction.com/uploads/JDwyer.PDF

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4. 4. geojellyroll 03:03 PM 1/16/12

   Easy. One needs credentials to get into the door. 'Science' now equates with 'Academia' instead of standing on its own like other endeavors in society. This bureaucratization of science has been a slow creep since the last half of the 19th century. On the plus side it adds credibility to published research...on the negative it excludes non-in-group participation. Minds like those like Jobbs and Gates are not part of the 'in-group'.

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5. 5. Stud.med 05:31 PM 1/16/12

   What happens when the amount of knowledge nessercary to progress, exceeds the human life time ?

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6. 6. radobozov 02:29 PM 1/17/12

   States, definite interactions among fundamental 'units' are limited, while observables are unlimited. Knowledge is merely an illusion of unlimited observables. I think science has made the same mistake as religion did: commercializing the art of behavior in order to control general population's mind by bureaucratizing a system of ego centric control points. As in politics, if one did not play the game of a self supporting system, then an outlier/outsider of a theory that even encompasses pieces of truth among existing theories would merely lead to the collapse of a fallen society. It is better for those in control of ventures to rewards those discoveries that have already reached commercial scale of self sustainable monetary generation because they would be already into the control of those fostering an existing system of a well defined market where fuzziness of published work satisfies an agenda of already mind settled persona that have accepted the equality of matter and energy, uncertainty of space and light as time construed phenomena.

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7. 7. jeepien 08:02 PM 1/5/13

   ...or not.

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