North Korea's Nukes: Does the Death of Kim Jong-il Mean Trouble for the U.S.?

We talk to an international arms expert about North Korea's uncertain power shift and its impact on the country's nuclear chess game















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How does North Korea's nuclear program compare with that of Iran?
The difference between Iran and North Korea is that North Korea is out of the box—they've acquired the means to make weapons and exited the Non-Proliferation Treaty.** Most people think it's harder to get a country back in the box once they've left. Iran has lived up to the letter of the Non-Proliferation Treaty in terms of allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect what they're doing. Iran declares that its program is for energy purposes, not for weapons. But they've also been moving closer and closer to a posture where they could break out quickly and produce the highly enriched uranium used to make weapons. There's a lot of concern about this. Actually there's a lot of anxiety about both of them, and there's a concern with regard to North Korea that South Korea and perhaps even Japan might get so worried that they [also will] feel they need nuclear weapons.

With North Korea, we're trying to get them to see that they would be better off cashing in their status as a nuclear weapons state. Still, it's debatable how hard we've been trying. I don't think we've given them a convincing offer to do this.

What would be a convincing offer?
We are still technically in a state of war with North Korea since there was no peace treaty after the Korean War. North Korea worries about the U.S. interfering in the regime change there. They cite Libya as an example of a country that gave up its nuclear program and this year was vulnerable to bombing by NATO. North Korea would need some kind of assurance that if they got rid of their nuclear weapons we would leave their regime change up to them and not interfere. It's hard to make a convincing guarantee of this because it's such a repulsive regime, but that's really what they want.

Well, also they want some sort of economic assistance because they're in such terrible shape. South Korea and China have tried to set up factories in certain areas, but they haven't worked out. I'm critical of the U.S. for not doing a better job on its end. The first [George H. W.] Bush administration was ambivalent toward North Korea, thinking we should pressure them until they collapse. Clinton thought they were close to a deal but then they were out of office. Neither the [George W.] Bush or the Obama administrations have done much in terms of negotiations with North Korea.


** In 1985 North Korea agreed to the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT), which requires non-nuclear weapon states to give up the development and acquisition of nuclear weapons, but refused to sign an obligatory safeguards agreement with the IAEA. In 1994, the same year Kim Jong-il assumed power, North Korea agreed to freeze its plutonium weapons program in exchange for aid from the U.S., an agreement that collapsed in 2002. In August 2003 China, Japan, the two Koreas, Russia, and the U.S. launched another major diplomatic effort known as the Six-Party Talks. A few years later North Korea pledged to abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs and return to the NPT. But the talks broke down in 2009 following North Korea's nuclear missile test that year. (The country conducted its first nuclear test in October 2006.)



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  1. 1. Nebetsu 05:44 PM 12/20/11

    CTRL-F: as long as long

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  2. 2. Nebetsu 05:49 PM 12/20/11

    "Actually there's a lot of anxiety about both of them, and there's a concern with regard to North Korea that South Korea and perhaps even Japan might get so worried that they feel they need their nuclear weapons."

    Come on guys. This is "Scientific" American. Proof read :P

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  3. 3. heman800 09:22 PM 12/20/11

    I was watching a video on how some people were crying for the death of this Dictator (impressive are we going to cry if our politicians die I dont think so)...anyway here in México we wouldnt. I think the death of a Dictator is a new transition to better relations, his son is young and seems to have an open mind, even if he was trained for just one year in the position. People in north Korea did consider did past dictator as "divine" so there is a lot of religious stuff involved and idealization of this person. I think USA should be aware from South Korea and becareful, I was reading they tried to change plutonioum for food and they did agree so thats a positive sign. We need to becareful with Venezuela and Russia those countries are trying to invade USA and there are rumors that in México where I live there is Hezzbollah and Iranian groups doing some damage to our society -as we all know-.

    Nuclear weapons are not toys and the Pentagon should be very carefull on those communist countries where freedom of speech is limited and so is freedom to be different or to behave differently, because the prize for a communist regime is controll is manipulation, etc.

    I see a better future...greetings

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  4. 4. scottryan1 11:44 PM 12/20/11

    For a start they do not have a missile that can Carrie the nuclear bomb.

    Teaepoodong 1 can not carry a nuclear bomb, the taepodong 2 does not work yet. it has failed in lots of test.

    The only problem is the cannon fire. they can hit sk city and would make massive damage.

    The only thing they could do for that, is put up 1 billion dollars worth of cheap $SK made blimps / balloons, that would see small damage from the cannon fire aimed to sk main city in range.

    It would take hours to take out most of there cannons, there for the blimps would see small or no damage on the main city.

    NK needs to be taken out, before that young psychopath that will go for it, get a missile that can work or hit a target in a city size are. there missiles are very inaccurate if they even works at all.

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  5. 5. scottryan1 12:02 AM 12/21/11

    I know that NK's cannon weapons fire a round, then go back under ground. that would not be a problem because even if you did not use bunker buster bomb, (that you should not need to because they are not that deep under ground), you would drop it on the entry and that would blow up the opening and leave it trapped under ground.

    Clinton is a full for letting them get nuclear weapons. at least they will not let Iran after that.

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  6. 6. scottryan1 12:11 AM 12/21/11

    I would like to see a devise made like this.

    Bombs that blow up in the air & magnetize the cannons round made metal. the cannon metal rounds will then fly near the city where a massive like magnet electronic field will be under ground, and will pull them down to the ground before they can hit the city.

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  7. 7. scottryan1 12:19 AM 12/21/11

    Well even if A jet fighter or missile had metal, components, chip, parts, or the seat belt, or the guns on them was made of metal, it will pull the jet fighter to the ground or severely damage the craft by ripping it out.

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  8. 8. scottryan1 12:29 AM 12/21/11

    Well even if A jet fighter or missile had metal, components, chip, parts, or the seat belt, or the guns on them was made of metal, it will pull the jet fighter to the ground or severely damage the craft by ripping it out.

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