Out of this heroic tragedy a lesson emerges—reality must take precedence over willful optimism. Nature cannot be distorted.

The article was published in print as "Opting Out of Overoptimism ."

8 Comments

1. 1. danhicksbyron 07:23 AM 2/21/12

   The tendency towards overoptimism would not be so bad if it were not for the Dunning-Kruger effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect). What has been shown by Kruger, Dunning and others is that the less competent you are, the more confident you are in your abilities, while the more confident among us are better at estimating their incompetence. (This effect is apparently much stronger in the US than in Europe.)
   
   This, of course, bodes ill for any society, but especially in a democracy, as the incompetent will beat their chests about the righteousness of their cause while the capable will be more tentative in their assertions.

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2. 2. NoMinorChords 11:23 PM 2/21/12

   I noticed with some amusement that the print addition of this article faces an ad for a product that promises fitness with a 4-minute a day cardio routine. "People cannot believe that our 4 minute cardio exercise is possible," it crows. "The 'experts' have the same (wrong) opinion." To believe that requires a level of "optimism" that might be better described as "gullibility."

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3. 3. Joseph C Moore, Cpo USN Ret in reply to NoMinorChords 06:33 PM 3/14/12

   "edition"

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4. 4. geojellyroll 07:35 PM 3/14/12

   It was an ok article until it got off on a tangent of a sample of 'one'.

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5. 5. NoMinorChords in reply to Joseph C Moore, Cpo USN Ret 07:41 PM 3/14/12

   You are right, sir. I'd like to blame it on a psychotic spell checker but it was probably a slip of the finger/mind.

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6. 6. rwstutler 03:26 AM 3/15/12

   Overconfidence and overoptimism rely on 'knowledge' that is false, or poor math skills. Steve Jobs was the exception to many rules, and an example that normal expectations, or probability distributions, do not apply to rule breakers. Yet overcon fidence and overoptimism can be trained, and made part of a persons self image and world view, even in the face on contradictory evidence and experience.

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7. 7. Michael M in reply to Joseph C Moore, Cpo USN Ret 06:07 PM 3/16/12

   Thank you Mr. Moore.
   
   To further digress: For a number of years now, I have lost respect for the validity of writers who malappropriate words.
   Perhaps it is overoptimistic of me to believe that developed neural tissue occurs in the spellingly challenged, although NoMinorChords (how optimistic!) illustrates an astonishing juxtaposition possibly purposely made by SA magazine layout persons in high humor!
   
   TO reply to another commentor:
   Overoptimism occurs in those with Bipolar disorders; we do well to remember that some creative geniuses were Bipolar, sometimes in extreme.

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8. 8. realmath 08:42 AM 5/15/12

   The last line in the article is:"Nature cannot be distorted"
   Alegoric for the word distorted:DO NOT LIE
   
   If the information,that we ACT ON,are false:the action is a lie as well.
   
   Article mention:"Chief financial officers were grossly overconfident on market forecast"
   
   Oscar winning ducomentary movie about the Wall Street part of the worlds finance crise mention,that: DEVIATE TRADE was like PYRAMIDE TRADE....
   
   I agree with the articles last line!

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