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Parallel Universes: The Mystery of Probability: What Are the Odds? [Preview]















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Image: SARA CHEN

As multiverse theories gain credence, the sticky issue of how to compute probabilities in physics is growing from a minor nuisance into a major embarrassment. If there are indeed many identical copies of you, the traditional notion of determinism evaporates. You could not compute your own future even if you had complete knowledge of the entire state of the multiverse, because there is no way for you to determine which of these copies is you (they all feel they are). All you can predict, therefore, are probabilities for what you would observe. If an outcome has a probability of, say, 50 percent, it means that half the observers observe that outcome.

Unfortunately, it is not an easy task to compute what fraction of the infinitely many observers perceive what. The answer depends on the order in which you count them. By analogy, the fraction of the integers that are even is 50 percent if you order them numerically (1, 2, 3, 4, ...) but approaches 100 percent if you sort them digit by digit, the way your word processor would (1, 10, 100, 1,000, ...). When observers reside in disconnected universes, there is no obviously natural way in which to order them. Instead one must sample from the different universes with some statistical weights referred to by mathematicians as a "measure."


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