Cover Image: November 2005 Scientific American Magazine See Inside

Preparing for a Pandemic [Preview]

One day a highly contagious and lethal strain of influenza will sweep across all humanity, claiming millions of lives. It may arrive in months or not for years--but the next pandemic is inevitable. Are we ready?















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PHOTOILLUSTRATION

Image: PHOTOILLUSTRATION BY JASON JAROSLAV COOK; NIBSC/PHOTO RESEARCHERS, INC. (virus SEM); VINCENT YU AP PHOTO (line of people); HOANG DINH NAM/AFP/GETTY IMAGES (boy with mask and doctor with x-ray); JUAN VRIJDAG EPA(Tamiflu); BYUN YOUNG-WOOK EPA (monitor of scan)

When the levees collapsed in New Orleans, the faith of Americans in their government's ability to protect them against natural disasters crumbled as well. Michael Chertoff, the secretary of homeland security who led the federal response, called Hurricane Katrina and the flood it spawned an "ultracatastrophe" that "exceeded the foresight of the planners."

But in truth the failure was not a lack of foresight. Federal, state and local authorities had a plan for how governments would respond if a hurricane were to hit New Orleans with 120-mile-per-hour winds, raise a storm surge that overwhelmed levees and water pumps, and strand thousands inside the flooded city. Last year they even practiced it. Yet when Katrina struck, the execution of that plan was abysmal.


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  1. 1. ehs284 02:56 AM 4/28/09

    As suggested in the article, H5N1 and 'ordinary' annual epidemics will overlap. The current H1N1 outbreaks seem to be following a course from Mexico. Egypt recently had confirmed H5N1 cases, the virus in this case seems to be travelling in the opposite global direction. What will happen when they meet? Will we just see an overlap or is there potential for strain development? Someone must have modelled this scenario in the past; does anyone know what transpired or could a kind reader point me towards a reference please?

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  2. 2. MrsADey 07:23 AM 4/28/09

    Great! If list of precautions to be followed by common man (like wearing a musk) were also included, it would have been better.

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  3. 3. Jazzmate3 04:27 PM 5/1/09

    It is predicted in the Holy Bible, that in the last days as we know them that deseases from animals ("beasts") will wipe out a lot of the population. It will yet come.

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Preparing for a Pandemic: Scientific American Magazine

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