It’s well known that pre-diction is fraught with peril, especially when it’s about the future. But if the future is past, then analyzing predictions about that past future is like an unwrapped present. (Tense yet?) A friend recently sent me an article from the December 1900 issue of the Ladies’ Home Journal, in which one John Elfreth Watkins, Jr., listed a series of predictions for the year 2000. (See www.tinyurl.com/3yuaxx for the complete list.) Let’s look at some of those prognostications now that 2000 is as gone as Watkins.

“There will probably be from 350,000,­000 to 500,000,000 people in America.” A bit on the high side of our current population of about 304 million. But not a bad estimate, especially given an American population in 1900 of a mere 76 million. Still, Watkins was way off the mark by then predicting that Nicaragua and Mexico would seek admission to the Union after the Panama Canal was finished. Actually, if Mexico did join the U.S. the fence some Americans want to build on the Latin American border could be reduced from about 2,000 miles down to only the approximately 400 border miles that Mexico shares with Guatemala and Belize. It’s called thinking outside the boundaries.

“There will be no C, X or Q in our every-day alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary.” A quixotic notion.

“Mosquitoes, house-flies and roaches will have been practically exterminated.” Unless “practically exterminated” meant prag­matically slamming a shoe heel on the insects, this one is obviously way off. As is:

“Rats and mice will have been exterminated.” I didn’t even kill the cartoon-cute little house mouse I found jumping around in my sink a few weeks ago. (I didn’t let it move in with me rent-free either.) And if you’re ever bored waiting for a New York City subway, you can pass the time playing find-the-rat-on-the-tracks. (Although somebody usually wins inside of 10 seconds.)

“Ready-cooked meals will be bought from establishments similar to our bakeries of to-day.” Correct. “Food will be served hot or cold to private houses in pneumatic tubes or automobile wagons.” Partly correct—hot food is delivered cold by automobile wagons. “The meal being over, the dishes used will be packed and returned to the cooking establishments where they will be washed.” A bachelor’s dream that is, alas, unrealized. Fortunately, in 1904 some genius invented the paper plate.

“There will be no street cars in our large cities.” Mostly true, with the notable exceptions of San Francisco’s trolleys and Boston’s Green Line. Although anyone actually waiting for a Green Line train might indeed conclude that they no longer exist. “All hurry traffic will be below or high above ground when brought within city limits. In most cities it will be confined to broad subways or tunnels, well lighted and well ventilated.” Granted, the lighting and ventilation are good enough to play find-the-rat-on-the-tracks. “Cities, therefore, will be free from all noises.” Rendered erroneous by the then unforeseen invention of automobile sound systems with super bass subwoofers. And by legions of pedestrians yelling into cell phones.

“The trip from suburban home to office will require a few minutes only. A penny will pay the fare.” For two bucks, I can go the 12 miles between the Bronx and midtown Manhattan during the morning rush in only a little over an hour. (“Hurry traffic” is less a description than a fervent prayer.)

“Automobiles will be cheaper than horses.” Mostly true, with the notable exception of Frolic N My Dreams, which be­came worthless to me by finishing dead last in the sixth race at Aqueduct on December 2.

6 Comments

1. 1. CodeMonkey32 04:49 AM 1/18/08

   An interesting addition to this article is H.G. Wells' book "Anticipation" which was written around this same time. H.G. Wells was a little better at predicting the future. The book is free to download or view at this site: http://www.gutenberg.org/files/19229/19229-8.txt

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2. 2. GhostWriter 03:46 AM 1/19/08

   Simplified English? Sounds more George Orwell than Herbert George Wells.

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3. 3. bobbower 10:59 PM 1/19/08

   thanks for this article
   here's a chap talking about an article published in cosmopolitan magazine in 1929 with almost every single prediction correct
   http://www.cuttingthroughthematrix.com/transcripts/Alan_Watt_Blurb_Nothing_New_Under_the_Sun_July182007.html

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4. 4. cattall 03:19 PM 1/21/08

   Excellent article that demonstrates that we cannot predict the future to any degree of certainty.
   
   Here is my simple offering for a one hundred year future prediction.
   Chicken Stem cells are now used to produce plump Chicken breasts for food without the need for real chickens.
   sadly chickens have died out as unecessary animals.!

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5. 5. tecmen1 04:31 AM 1/24/08

   Predictions normally are sometimes extrapolations aof todays tendencies or wild guesses.
   
   the line to the future changes drastically with technologicall breaktroughs , today we might predict that we will stop using CO2 producing combustibles and that ilumination in cities will be wireless.
   ther everybody in europe will have a gps implanted to avoid loosing time geting lost but will be sexualy disoriented .
   
   that In GOD WE TRUST will be included in the mexican currency . the tortilla wall will be in Panama and there will not be a UNITED STATES but a UNITED CONTINENT in the other hand if a different political party wins we might end with a UNITED VENEZUELAN EAST ANDEAN CONFEDERATION and the wall will be built by them to exclude the rest of the continent .
   Predictions are fun and usefull, gives roadmaps to follow or to avoid, Marks predictions were usefull to correct the ways of bussiness , without them we might have ended there...

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6. 6. sculptmud 07:53 AM 1/24/08

   It is possible that the epitaph of the world has already been written in a most remarkable anonymous poem found by Lord Macleod among papers in a Synagogue, I know not where (copyright untraceable). It is entitled "Creation in Reverse.''

    

   In the end, man destroyed the heaven that had been called earth. For the earth had been beautiful and happy until the destructive spirit of man moved upon it. This was the seventh day before the end.

   For man said, 'Let me have power in the earth,' and he saw that power seemed good, and he called those who sought power 'great leaders', and those who sought only to serve others and bring reconciliation 'weaklings,' 'compromisers,' 'appeasers.' And this was the sixth day before the end.

   And man said, 'Let there be a division among all people, and divide the nations which are for me from the nations which are against me.' And this was the fifth day before the end.

   And man said, 'Let us gather our resources in one place and create more instruments of power to defend ourselves; the radio to control men's minds, the draft to control men's bodies; uniforms and symbols of power to win men's souls.' And this was the fourth day before the end.

   And man said, 'Let there be censorship to divide the propaganda from the truth.' And he made two great censorship bureaux to control the thoughts of man; one to tell only the truth he wishes known abroad and one to tell only the truth he wishes known at home. And this was the third day before the end.

   And man said, 'Let us create weapons which can kill vast numbers, even millions and hundreds of millions, at a distance.' And so he perfected germ warfare and deadly underwater arsenals, guided missiles, great fleets of war planes and destructive power to the extent of tens of thousands of millions of tons of T.N.T. And it was the second day before the end.

   And man said, 'Let us make God in our own image. Let us say God does as we do, thinks as we think, wills as we will, and kills as we kill.' So man found ways to kill with atomic power and dust even those as yet unborn. And he said, 'This is necessary. There is no alternative. This is God's will.'

   And on the last day, there was a great noise upon the face of the earth, and man and all his doings were no more, and the ravished earth rested on the seventh day .... "

   
   
   --
   Edited by sculptmud at 01/23/2008 11:54 PM

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