But algorithmic-matching sites exclude all such information from the algorithm because the only information those sites collect is based on individuals who have never encountered their potential partners (making it impossible to know how two possible partners interact) and who provide very little information relevant to their future life stresses (employment stability, drug abuse history, and the like).

So the question is this: Can online dating sites predict long-term relationship success based exclusively on information provided by individuals—without accounting for how two people interact or what their likely future life stressors will be? Well, if the question is whether such sites can determine which people are likely to be poor partners for almost anybody, then the answer is probably yes.

Indeed, it appears that eHarmony excludes certain people from their dating pool, leaving money on the table in the process, presumably because the algorithm concludes that such individuals are poor relationship material. Given the impressive state of research linking personality to relationship success, it is plausible that sites can develop an algorithm that successfully omits such individuals from the dating pool. As long as you’re not one of the omitted people, that is a worthwhile service.

But it is not the service that algorithmic-matching sites tend to tout about themselves. Rather, they claim that they can use their algorithm to find somebody uniquely compatible with you—more compatible with you than with other members of your sex. Based on the evidence available to date, there is no evidence in support of such claims and plenty of reason to be skeptical of them.

For millennia, people seeking to make a buck have claimed that they have unlocked the secrets of romantic compatibility, but none of them ever mustered compelling evidence in support of their claims. Unfortunately, that conclusion is equally true of algorithmic-matching sites.

Without doubt, in the months and years to come, the major sites and their advisors will generate reports that claim to provide evidence that the site-generated couples are happier and more stable than couples that met in another way. Maybe someday there will be a scientific report—with sufficient detail about a site’s algorithm-based matching and vetted through the best scientific peer process—that will provide scientific evidence that dating sites’ matching algorithms provide a superior way of finding a mate than simply selecting from a random pool of potential partners. For now, we can only conclude that finding a partner online is fundamentally different from meeting a partner in conventional offline venues, with some major advantages, but also some exasperating disadvantages.

Are you a scientist who specializes in neuroscience, cognitive science, or psychology? And have you read a recent peer-reviewed paper that you would like to write about? Please send suggestions to Mind Matters editor Gareth Cook, a Pulitzer prize-winning journalist at the Boston Globe. He can be reached at garethideas AT gmail.com or Twitter @garethideas.

15 Comments

1. 1. sparcboy 08:48 AM 5/8/12

   "Indeed, it appears that eHarmony excludes certain people from their dating pool, leaving money on the table in the process, presumably because the algorithm concludes that such individuals are poor relationship material. ... As long as you’re not one of the omitted people, that is a worthwhile service."
   
   If you've ever been in a relationship with a person who would have been "omitted", then you know firsthand just how worthwhile it could be.

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2. 2. JohnOstrowick 03:01 PM 5/8/12

   Worked for me. I suppose it depends on how literate you are psychologically speaking. One can read a lot in people's profile pictures and their writeups about themselves. I tried match.com and found it useless; the profile pictures were tiny and the level of detail was poor. The site I used had high detail about pets, hobbies, income, clothing preferences, etc etc, and I found the matching algorithm pretty good.

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3. 3. sethdayal 03:54 PM 5/8/12

   The ones that work are the ones that have local events like pub nights, hikes, picnics etc. You look to see who is going, something about them, then head. Name tags, and easy appoach to friendly folks works gangbusters.
   
   Plentyoffish is the model.

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4. 4. Voigt-Kampf Machine 03:17 AM 5/9/12

   So the author is saying that the upside is the enormous exposure to other people. The downsides include the inability to make good decisions based on profiles alone and the lack of evidence to suggest that algorithms are effective.
   
   Unless a site uses its algorithm to hike up the price (which many do) I don't see a downside to profile-browsing. People's ability to judge others intuitively can vary (sometimes being quite good). Plus, I can't imagine it's less effective judging someone by their profile than it'd be if you ran into that person in public as a complete stranger, with no knowledge of them.
   
   The downside they present for profile-browsing has nothing to do with profile-browsing itself. It has to do with the fact that people, left to their own devices, often have a crude understanding of what they want and need in a relationship.

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5. 5. riesling 07:58 PM 5/9/12

   I met my wife on OKCupid. We are very happily married. Our marriage would never have happened if online dating did not exist - due to the large geographical distance between us, we would never have met otherwise.
   
   I dispute the authors' argument that no algorithm can work. OKCupid users can assign their own weights to the Q & A pairs that are used by the matching algorithm - in effect, each user builds his or her own matching algorithm. Then comes the reading of personal profiles. Then a decision is made whether or not to contact each potential partner. It worked perfectly for us, and soon we will have children who would never have been born if OKCupid did not exist.

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6. 6. Geopelia 08:45 AM 5/10/12

   Algorithms are all very well, but until the couple meet there is no way to know if there will be a strong sexual attraction. Not love at first sight, but the attraction should be there.
   Without that, marriage becomes just a partnership arrangement, which may be all some couples want, of course.
   "Soulmates" are all very well, but friendship and a good sex life make for a happy marriage.
   
   Try imagining that the girl is another man. Would you be really good mates with the same interests and activities, good work mates,in the Forces together, in the same sports teams, that sort of thing?
   It may seem an odd notion, but it gives you some idea of day to day compatibility.
   
   (Married 48 years)
   

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7. 7. Norwin 07:48 AM 5/15/12

   I believe the crucial factor that separates people or cement them together is the personality (chemistry) that develops after you meet. Profiles are essentially access devices bringing people into contact. It is not uncommon to pick up a totally incompatible someone, just for the fun of it, and ending up happily ever after!

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8. 8. newlight 05:41 PM 5/15/12

   Glad someone pointed out OKcupid, the one site that is truly different. Users (who do NOT have to pay anything!) get to answer and rank up to 5000 questions, which are then compared to others who match their criteria. The result is an actual percentage match! I find it's great, especially since you can call up and compare answers and browse without being tagged. I also like it for a chat with someone far away. I did meet a 99% match recently, but, when it became apparent that he had posted a ten year old foto, my interest waned! Important: be honest or confess within the profile or in the first encounter, please.

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9. 9. JesseWilson in reply to sparcboy 09:29 PM 6/25/12

   I was rejected from the service after answering its questions honestly--and I'd have to agree that I'm not ideal relationship material. I signed up again using a different email address and told them what they wanted to hear, and I got in. Subsequently, I was paired up with some very incompatible people. I agree with the article that eHarmony's matching technology is totally bogus, and I wouldn't recommend the site to anyone. OkCupid has way better matching, and it's $60/month cheaper.

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10. 10. martkell2012 01:21 PM 8/1/12

    Online dating is really how most of my relationships form. Mavenrestin.com and Pof.com don't have some quack formula. I think the best formula is YOU.
    
    The more experienced you are at online dating, the easier it is for you to weed out the bullcrap.

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11. 11. pdlafleur3rd in reply to riesling 05:45 PM 8/30/12

    I was very pleased to read your comment. My GF and I met via Ok Cupid and also vouch for its effectiveness. Prob would never have met her otherwise.

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12. 12. CijaBlack 12:12 PM 10/5/12

    I too found love on OkCupid. I think the "flaw" in a study like this is that you can't break down the process of falling in love to an equation. I think online dating sites are a great tool if they are recognized for being just that. There will never be a magical logarithm that finds you your perfect match online. The human heart has too many variables. What people miss is doing any work ahead of time to figure out what they really want or to process some of their last relationship baggage so that they don't drag it into a new relationship. I think people spend more time researching the purchase of a new car and weighing that against their wants then they do in really figuring out what kind of mate is going to be a good fit in their life.

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13. 13. CarolinHills 07:36 AM 11/29/12

    I met with my husband in <a href="http://www.snoogd.com">social networking site</a> and we are living happily,so I am glad that dating also connected with technology.Some time we both are far away to each other that time also <a href="http://www.snoogd.com">Social dating site</a> very helpful.Thanks for such nice article!!!

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14. 14. CarolinHills 04:59 AM 12/12/12

    Seriously an amazing idea for meeting our partners online.These sites provide you with lot of facilities to judge a person whether he/she is made for you or not.I had tried a site ago but it was not so useful for me but there are sites that really helps One can understand a lot in people's profile pictures and their biodata.

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15. 15. alex_456 01:27 AM 5/7/13

    Try this one likemyvoice.com

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