If you spread your investments over 10 companies, giving each $1.43 million, the chance that at least seven will yield 10-fold returns is more than 95 percent. If that happens, the total return would be $100.1 million. This strategy leaves $2.7 million in reserve for future investments.

If each company's probability of success is p, the probability of exactly k successes out of n companies is (n choose k) p^k (1-p)^(n-k) where (n choose k) is n!/((n-k)! k!)

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