If you spread your investments over 10 companies, giving each $1.43 million, the chance that at least seven will yield 10-fold returns is more than 95 percent. If that happens, the total return would be $100.1 million. This strategy leaves $2.7 million in reserve for future investments.
If each company's probability of success is p, the probability of exactly k successes out of n companies is (n choose k) pk (1-p)(n-k) where (n choose k) is n!/((n-k)! k!)