Editors note: This story is part of a Feature "The Doping Dilemma" from the April 2008 issue of Scientific American.

Why do cyclists cheat? The game theory analysis of doping in cycling (below), which is closely modeled on the game of prisoner’s dilemma, shows why cheating by doping is rational, based solely on the incentives and expected values of the payoffs built into current competition. (The expected value is the value of a successful outcome multiplied by the probability of achieving that outcome.) The payoffs assumed are not unrealistic, but they are given only for illustration; the labels “high,”  “temptation,” “sucker” and “low” in the matrices correspond to the standard names of strategies in prisoner’s dilemma. It is also assumed that if competitors are playing “on a level playing field” (all are cheating, or all are rule-abiding), their winnings will total $1 million each, without further adjustment for a doping advantage. 

—Peter Brown, Staff Editor

Game Assumptions: Current Competition

• Value of winning the Tour de France: $10 million
• Likelihood that a doping rider will win the Tour de France against nondoping competitors: 100%
• Value of cycling professionally for a year, when the playing field is level: $1 million
• Cost of getting caught cheating (penalties and lost income): $1 million
• Likelihood of getting caught cheating: 10%
• Cost of getting cut from a team (forgone earnings and loss of status): $1 million
• Likelihood that a nondoping rider will get cut from a team for being noncompetitive: 50%