ARCTIC ICE: Earth's northern hemisphere with sea ice and clouds
Image: Wikimedia Commons/Tryphon
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The Best Science Writing Online 2012
Showcasing more than fifty of the most provocative, original, and significant online essays from 2011, The Best Science Writing Online 2012 will change the way...
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Energy security and climate change present massive threats to global security, military planners say, with connections and consequences spanning the world.
Some scientists have linked the Arab Spring uprisings to high food prices caused by the failed Russian wheat crop in 2010, a result of an unparalleled heat wave. The predicted effects of climate change are also expected to hit developing nations particularly hard, raising the importance of supporting humanitarian response efforts and infrastructure improvements.
Here's a look at several geopolitical hotspots that will likely bear the unpredictable and dangerous consequences of climate change and current energy policies.
Yemen and the Middle East
The Middle East's oil reserves have served as the flashpoint for conflicts, and military leaders are keeping a close eye on Yemen these days, as the country suffers through instability related, in part, to water shortages, which are expected to worsen with climate change.
The region's major energy trade route runs just off the Yemeni shoreline, making it vulnerable to attack or blockade by pirates or other insurgent groups. "It's seven miles from the Yemen coast to the shipping lane. You can row out, and you don't even need an onboard motor," said Neil Morisetti, a rear admiral in Britain's Ministry of Defense and the U.K.'s climate and energy security envoy.
An energy-transport shutdown could cripple the global economy, he added.
The Arctic
Melting sea ice poses several unprecedented challenges to defense missions and the global economy, especially once year-round ice floes disappear - a scenario expected within decades.
"When that happens, the whole ball game changes," said Bob Corell, a lead researcher with the Global Environment & Technology Foundation who has headed the U.S. Office for the Global Energy Assessment and extensively studied the Arctic region.
Corell said Asian countries, including China and South Korea, are already plotting new navigation routes and building cargo ships that can push through seasonal ice. The shift would eliminate some travel that now passes through the Straits of Malacca, between Malaysia and Indonesia, where piracy remains active, but it could also enable Asia to take firm control of global trade.
The U.S. Navy is working on developing instruments that can withstand the harsh weather conditions, and planners anticipate an increased presence in the high Arctic.
Africa
Considering the extent of food and water scarcity throughout many parts of Africa, the continent is highly vulnerable to projected droughts associated with climate change, Corell said. Long-term drought in Sudan contributed to the ethnic cleansing in Darfur, he added. The conflict also exposed how poorly prepared the international community is to respond to such scenarios.
Expect this to play out again and again in the future, Corell warned. "There are going to be Darfur's all over the place."
Bangladesh and South Asia
Between increases in coastal flooding and the drying up of Himalayan glaciers, populations in south Asian countries are already facing disasters and a decline in freshwater supplies.
The Navy's Task Force Climate Change fears that floods or food shortages in Bangladesh could trigger mass migrations to India, increasing ethnic conflict and repression in the region as families compete for resources and survival.
Rippling beyond the subcontinent, the region's manufacturing supply chain, which produces electronics and vehicles for the rest of the world, was already disrupted by flooding in Thailand last year, added Morisetti.
On the web:
Arab Spring & climate/heat wave
Global Environment & Technology Foundation
US Navy Task Force Climate Change
This article originally appeared at The Daily Climate, the climate change news source published by Environmental Health Sciences, a nonprofit media company.
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22 Comments
Add CommentPokerplayer is telling lies once again.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe Nation Snow Ice Data Center says the following about the Arctic Ice:
http://nsidc.org/icelights/arctic-sea-ice/
"Despite year-to-year variations, satellite data show a decline of more than 11 percent per decade in September ice extent, since the satellite record started in 1979"
Even if we look at how this year is doing we find it below average:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
So at no time during this year has the sea ice extent hit average. Yet, here is Pokerplayer calling Joshua Zaffos, a liar. I wonder how many more innocent people are going to be unfairly accused of lying by demonstrable liar?
Pokerplayer Says: Does unScientific American believe that starvation in Africa is due to climate change or the culture of the region.
Trent: Says, oh. An anthropologist on the entire continent of Africa are we? Go ahead tell us all why it is culture.
"This year so far it is slightly above the 1979 to 2001 average level. How is that evidence of the reported problem?"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYeah and it's not evidence againts it either. What we need to see are the numbers for each year from 1979(or earlier) to 2011.
Correction
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMissing intro: @pokerplyer
A good article, not science, mostly opinion. Unfortunately, most of what is presented as science is nothing more than hypothesis and opinion. The earth seems to be warming ever since we left the last ice age. It is clear that the last 10 years have been less warm than before. It is questionable that sea ice in the arctic will ever go to no ice in winter. Temps get to
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this-50 F or more in the winter and this will freeze any water. By the way, sea ice in the arctic was very low in the 1930's and 50's as well perhaps more than today in the summer and september. I remember pictures in Life magazine showing ships close to the north pole and even subs in the late 50's at the north pole in summer. not sure we are in a period which will get warmer or colder. will have to wait or earth to decide. doubt we can affect it much.......by the way, Pokerplayer is right about lousy infrastructure and bad governments being more of a problem than global warming.
Pokerplyer is right about the ice extent too:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/18/sea-ice-news-volume-3-2/
You can see the ice extent for yourself at:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
Good Night!
thanks for the update.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisCherry-picking as usual. What do you deniers not under stand? YOU CAN'T MAKE A TREND BASED ON A TINY SNIPPET OF DATA THAT SEEMS TO CONCUR WITH YOUR PREDETERMINED BELIEFS!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOh look! 2010 had MORE arctic sea ice cover later in the season, but it still ended up dropping WAY down below and outside the average by September! Does that mean anything? Well, the only thing it really means right now is that trying to discern climate trends with a pitifully small data set is not the right way to do things. Just because a decaying trend punches back up to the LOWER BOUND of the standard deviation it had previously doesn't mean it's "recovering" or any other Anthony Watts-inspired bullpuckey.
Here's a page from YOUR OWN SOURCE:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
If you can look at that and see how things are changing, you have a willful disregard for the facts. This is why people call you deniers. When CLEAR EVIDENCE of things are presented, you just SOMEHOW IGNORE it and continue on with your fact-free rants. These are the classic hallmarks of a belief. You BELIEVE that climate change isn't real. I don't know why, but I can guess:
- Hippies and Al Gore think climate change is real. You hate hippies / Al Gore and everything they stand for. Therefore, the hippies and Al Gore are wrong, no evidence required.
- The angry man on the "news" / talk radio / blog said climate change isn't real and you believe that angry person more than those elitist scientists in their ivory tower with all their biased facts. The angry man is part of your "tribe" and can be trusted without question while all those wussy scientists have only killed off all the muscle cars and made up all these endangered species just to ruin all your fun.
How close am I?
Hey look, it's the guests from the cubicle sea - how goes that paid life of posting anti-science, dummies? I see you jerk-offs have changed your names, never saw "pokerplyer" or "postman" or "bunch" here before, but given their symmetry they sure look like sockpuppets to me.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWelcome to reality, guys. If you don't like it, go pound sand. And get a real job - paid sockpuppet doesn't look so hot on a CV.
T
Please try to stay on topic. I can attest to pokerplayer's and postman's long tenure on these boards. Just because we disagree doesn't mean we need to dive overboard onto these distractions.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisPokerplyer has a point.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMany issues in tropical countries can be easily solved by improved infrastructure - irrigation systems, flood defenses etc.
To help people in Third World, best way is to help directly their economic growth and governance, not to talk about climate change.
Trent1492 and Pokerplyer both have a point.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYear-to-year variance in climate data is often more important than the mean. It doesn't often mean that the average climate changed, because the variability makes change meaningless.
For example, shipping companies may use open Arctic passages in some years, but still need to plan for traditional complete ice.
It was shown from the begining of the Arab spring that it was started when a food vendor was denied the right, by his government, to sell his goods on the open market, free capitalism was denied this man so he burned himself and then the Arab spring began as a protest. Not a shortage of food but typical in that part of the world the governments denying their own people access to available food. Climate change had nothing to do with it.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"...massive threats to global security, military planners say, with connections and consequences spanning the world.'
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMore non-scientific hyperbola. 'Military planners'...evokes some vision out of a futuristic spy novel.
hint...the USA is having an election this year and this 'massive threat' is a non-topic. Why...because there are NO MILITARY PLANNERS all warning of this hooplah.
The Presdident, the Commander-in-Chief, does not receive a special secret report each day with the latest advance of this 'massive threat'.
SA should stick to science
@ttheobald,
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisPokerplayer has admitted to sockpuppety. Go to this thread and take a look at post# 432, 432 and 450. There he is cornered by me and others and admits to having several sock puppets. Here he is also known as Sisko and though he did not admit to it I think it is pretty strong evidence that he is also Postman.
Science Blogs Deltoid: Open Thread
link:http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2012/01/january_2012_open_thread.php
That thread from the point where Pokerplayer first appears at #250 to when he flees it by # 476 is full of win and hilarity.
In it, not only is Pokerplayer revealed to be a puppeteer, but he tried to make a bogus bet of $100,000 USD with one of the forum members. That forum member takes him up on it and Pokerplayer then drops the gimmick.
It is also a very interesting read Sisko...I mean Pokerplayer did not realize he was dealing with real currently publishing scientist in the field. Reading Jeff Harvey is a real treat; while John Mashey is computer scientist and Silicon Valley pioneer with his own Wikipedia entry. It really is a fun read.
Trent, trent, trent...Still on the conspiracy theory, are you? Sad, such a brilliant mind, wasted. I guess, by your own theory, those who post similar comments or similar views must be one in the same. So, you must be sault, the watered down version. LOL! You guys are hilarious, and notice, I used the plural. You can keep your conspiracy theory for yourself. As individuals, we are the majority.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisLooks like I hit a nerve. Pokerplayer/Sisko/Postman it is not a conspiracy theory if it only involves one person. It is also not a product of fantasy when you admit to it.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou truly need to get a grip.
"The Presdident, the Commander-in-Chief, does not receive a special secret report each day with the latest advance of this 'massive threat'. "
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisLOL, as if the military could actually produce any meaningful report in a day.
The fact is if any report is passed on to the the POTUS from the military, it is already years old news. The way the military works, any report it publishes has already been reviewed and approved by the 'generals and admirals' in big business that actually run the show.
The president would be a fool to take much stock in anything the military's CEO's say in the first place. That is why he has science advisers and that is also why the constitution's founders placed a civilian in charge of the Department of Defense.
One has only to ask yourself, "What is a military adviser?". The answer of course is a paid lobbyist, whether they get paid by the military or not.
The fact is when 90% of the worlds PHDs in Climatology tell the president, "Houston we have a problem!", then the president damned well better pay attention. The end result of his failure to do so will result in the McCain/Palin syndrome in the next election and insure that the world's best historians will view him in the same unfavorable opinion that the Bush/Cheney gangsters now wear around their greedy necks.
"So it seems my comments have been pulled from unScientific American. Nothing like a censorship. "
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisUnScientific American?
Dude or dudette, at least show some respect. They give you a forum to rant in and tolerate your often neanderthal comments. Why denigrate the publisher?
I have been a avid reader of Scientific American Magazine for over 50 years now and have learned more from their contributors then any science textbooks in school. I particularly relished the 'Amateur Scientist' projects and won more then a few science fair ribbons from projects inspired from their pages.
Perhaps you could learn a few things from them too.
Singing Flea Says: UnScientific American?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisTrent Says: It has the strong echoes of McCarthyism, does it not? I am sure in Pokerplayer/Sisko/Postman's dreams they live for the day when the question can be asked, "Have you ever been or are a climate scientist?"
But developing countries stand to suffer the most from climate change. Even if we shower them with aid and build up their infrastructure, if they are plagued by famine, drought, storms, wildfires, etc. It won't make a bit of difference.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisUm, how is agreeing with the overwhelming majority of the world's scientists and EVERY SINGLE professional scientific and technical organization on the planet unscientific? Your comment is equivalent to calling a magazine "unscientific" if they agree that the HIV virus causes AIDS or that trans fats are bad for you.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisLook, even though the angry man on the TV/Talk Radio/Blog tells you to be suspicious of all those elite scientists with their biased facts, you have to realize that denial in the face of overwhelming scientific evidence and agreement among the scientific community is just plain silly.
Here are some undisputed facts:
- CO2 traps heat
- We've increased CO2's concentration in the atmosphere by %40 and we're showing NO SIGNS of slowing down. This extra 1.6W/m2 over the entire surface of the earth is the equivalent of 1 MILLION Hiroshima bombs going off EVERY DAY! That energy DOESN'T JUST GO AWAY!
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/06/30/257790/radiative-forcing-co2-1-million-hiroshima-bombs-a-day/
- The pH of the oceans is falling globally due to higher CO2 in the air. The biosphere may have handled CO2 concentrations this high millions of years ago, but NEVER in the geologic history of the earth has CO2 doubled in a 200 year time-frame. This is WAY faster than oceanic ecosystems can adapt.
- NUMEROUS lines of evidence, from tree rings, ice cores, sediment cores, glacial deposits, pollen samples, fossils, etc. ALL point to a climate sensitivity for the Earth of 2C - 4.5C with a most likely value of 3C. Even with the < %1 chance that Earth's climate sensitivity is as low as 2C, that still means that we need to SERIOUSLY cut our CO2 emissions NOW.
We're running an uncontrolled experiment with the Earth's atmospheric chemistry and the people who know better are SCREAMING at us to think about what we're doing and suggesting we should stop. You have to understand...THIS IS WHY PEOPLE CALL YOU DENIERS!
I'll leave you Flat Earth blathers to your own stimulation..
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMeanwhile .. here in Mexico we are experiencing droughts .. yes these kinds of droughts have been experienced before .. and often one result was that unemployed rural males went to the USA to work to send money home to support their family- can't do that now quite so easily.
One alternative is to buy an AK47 and rob and kill -- no not every unemployed desperate and near to starving young man is going to do that - I'd guess we have about 20,000 of them currently - pushing Mejico closer and closer to being a massive failed state right on your doorstep.
Global warming = More failed states.