From the June 2009 Special Editions | 23 comments

The Arctic Thaw Could Make Global Warming Worse ( Preview )

The melting Arctic is releasing vast quantities of methane. How big is this greenhouse threat? What can be done?

Double the Emissions

Some Arctic scientists are quick to point out that certain environmental changes could slow warming rather than speed it up, however. Sturm has also found areas where shrubs are not expanding and soils are colder. In other regions, the conversion of mossy tundra to thin forest, not shrubland, offsets some rise in greenhouse gases by storing more carbon in trees. Still, the consensus is that warming will dominate. “The question is whether this is a weak positive or a strong positive,” Lawrence says. “It may take a long time to get the numbers right.”

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