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Lester Brown asks for a window seat whenever he flies so that he can look down at the earth. That’s one more vantage point from which to view the evolving environmental panorama he has been examining for almost half a century. He spends a lot of time in the air, heading to audiences in all corners of the planet where his controversial predictions have gained attention.
Over the years Brown, who founded the Worldwatch Institute and the Earth Policy Institute, both in Washington, D.C., has often seemed a gloomy prophet. The subtitles of his most recent worldwide best sellers, the Plan B series, attest to this impression: Rescuing a Planet under Stress, A Civilization in Trouble and, with added urgency, Mobilizing to Save Civilization. He has warned of potentially destabilizing and costly food shortages, populations outstripping dwindling natural resources, water tables falling precipitously and glaciers retreating, bringing drought and floods. Critics have told him to lighten up: humanity has a way of adapting.
This article was originally published with the title The Persistent Prophet.
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Add CommentI like the "'I never wanted to be a writer,' Brown notes. 'And I still don’t. The problem is, if you have ideas that you want to communicate, you don’t have much choice.'" I face the same situation because I keep running into people who would rather use their mouths to exchange emotional signals than to exchange ideas.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe Malthusian that Lester Brown touts has been one of the most consistently disproven predictive theories of the agricultural economy since its creation. In the long history since Malthus's prediction 200 years ago, Americans have devoted fewer resources to agricultural production, seen food prices fall, and improved the nutritional qualit of their diets. Agricultural overproduction and too low prices is often cited as a problem for U.S. agriculture. How in the world does this square with Brown's downfall of civilization?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisScientific American, is this a joke? I read Brown's Plan B 3.0. It is a bewildering, rambling compilations of disjointed news-clippings taken completely out of context for maximum distortion. It is not science. The Malthusianism Brown espouses has failed, in terms of predictive ability, in modern agricultural economies since it inception for very specific reasons. Reading his trash greatly undermines my confidence in the objectivity of Scientific American's editors.
The Malthusian that Lester Brown touts has been one of the most consistently disproven predictive theories of the agricultural economy since its creation. In the long history since Malthus's prediction 200 years ago, Americans have devoted fewer resources to agricultural production, seen food prices fall, and improved the nutritional qualit of their diets. Agricultural overproduction and too low prices is often cited as a problem for U.S. agriculture. How in the world does this square with Brown's downfall of civilization?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisScientific American, is this a joke? I read Brown's Plan B 3.0. It is a bewildering, rambling compilations of disjointed news-clippings taken completely out of context for maximum distortion. It is not science. The Malthusianism Brown espouses has failed, in terms of predictive ability, in modern agricultural economies since it inception for very specific reasons. Reading his trash greatly undermines my confidence in the objectivity of Scientific American's editors.
I am a geographer who working on the field in the U.S. and abroad for the last 20 yrs has observed the reality and the statistics on the following issues:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe destruction of the small farms in favour of debt ridden medium ones and the large industrial monocropers; the steady loss of quality agricultural land; the toxifiying of the soil by various means, and recently the transgenic cartel destroying natural seeds to monopolize the food industry with their patented seed monopoly. Now in front of these measurable realities I would say that negative opinions on Worldwatch reports are out of ignorance or out of hubris from those who are profiting from these very real problems.
I'm curious as to a geographer stating facts as to issues and the economics of farming. Purhaps Aldlfo should have spent the last 20 years farming in the US to gain knowlage enough to have an educated opinion.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisJust the opinion of an old dirt farmer.
There are some things that are always certain in this life. One of them is that environmentalists predicting the end of human civilization will be wrong. Another is that their followers won't care and will still hold them up as enlightened thinkers.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhat is certain in this life is that human civilization on Earth will end when the Earth becomes incapable of supporting life. This will certainly happen when the life of our Sun ends. Or, it may come earlier with a worldwide catyclysm of geologic, space (asteroid) or human origin. Therefore, environmentalists predicting the end of human civilization are not wrong -- as long as they don't predict a quick end because of human actions.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisHumans have some control over the end of civilization because of human actions. Which means we should pay attention to "enlightened thinkers" and determine the validity of their arguments based on scientific facts and objective evidence and not be "blind" followers.
It appears that Mr. Brown's predictions are based in fact; however, the time frame during which they come true may be
longer than predicted. This should give humans sufficient time to change course and prolong the eventual end of human civilization on Earth due to human actions.
The end due to an asteroid collision with Earth might be averted with sufficient warning. The end due to the Sun's demise appears to be the coup de grace for the human race -- unless we can colonize another planet.
A reasonable conclusion is that human civilization will only be saved if we pay attention to our enlightened thinkers and act in a timely manner according to the facts.