CITY TRAFFIC: Beijing has transitioned from a city of bicycles to a city of cars, trucks and buses within a decade.
Image: David Biello/ © Scientific American
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SHANGHAI—Driving in China can be a risky affair. When you are not stopped in the ever more frequent bumper-to-bumper traffic of this bustling port city, care must be taken to avoid drivers making turns, who assume the right of way against oncoming traffic; reversing for missed turns; or executing a U-turn in the middle of a busy road.
Aggressiveness among the Volkswagen Santanas that make up the majority of the taxi fleet here is rewarded and the air is filled with the fumes from thousands of cars. Even though China only has 24 cars for every thousand Chinese (compared to 800 cars for every thousand Americans) the country is on pace to become the world's largest purchaser of automobiles by 2020—and this growing love affair between the Chinese and driving is a risk for the entire planet.
Year after year the Chinese buy more cars; sales grow by about 20 percent per year, up to 8.8 million vehicles in 2007. Although Chinese law mandates that cars get at least 35 miles per gallon fuel efficiency, a level the U.S. fleet won't reach until 2020, a large enough fleet of Chinese cars would forestall efforts to combat climate change or eliminate the other environmental challenges posed by paved roads, suburbanization and all that traffic.
The U.S. may enjoy the world's most extensive highway system at present, but the Chinese are rapidly catching up—from a few paved highways in the 1980s to 2.2 million miles (3.6 million kilometers) of paved roads in 2007. China National Highways and Expressways connect major and minor cities, like the Yu-Li Expressway that connects Chongqing and Wanzhou—and, when completed, beyond to Chengdu in the west and Shanghai in the east. The Chinese will spend $9.3 trillion in the next decade according to investment bank Morgan Stanley, building out its roads and other infrastructure. Gangs of chain-smoking men in safety vests armed with earthmovers and mechanized shovels eat into the hillsides and plains to build yet more roads.
Let's not forget to mention weaning the world off oil, but that is just as much a necessity for China, whose national oil fields are declining, as those of any country. "With regard to petroleum, the world total is limited and the price is very high," says Lai Hun Suen, a professor of sustainable development at Chongqing University and a municipal government official. "We cannot rely on oil."
Gasoline cost between 4.97 and 5.56 yuan per liter (around $2.77 to $3.09 per gallon), depending on the grade, in May, thanks to government subsidies. This artificially low price has cost the largest oil refinery company in the country—and third largest in the world—Sinopec more than 20 billion yuan this year. So the Chinese government raised fuel prices on June 19 by nearly 20 percent.
That hasn't stopped people from driving. "There's too many people driving," one Beijing taxi driver told me. "The only cars that should be allowed on the road are taxicabs and public transportation. [But] everyone wants to drive."
A long-term Chinese love affair with cars—reminiscent of the U.S. in the 1940s and 1950s—is blossoming. And there seems to be a growing predilection for gas-guzzling sport-utility vehicles, whose sales climbed to 370,000 last year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. "I am quite ashamed because my family has two SUVs," admits one Beijing resident who wouldn't give her name. "My sister bought [one because it is] a sturdy car for her baby and my brother bought [one] to be cool."
And the Chinese middle class has adopted another American habit: living in the suburbs and relying on a car to commute, whether it be in "Orange County" outside Beijing or similar suburbs on the outskirts of every other major city.
In one such suburb outside Chongqing, laborers and domestics sat on the curbsides outside security gates staffed by guards in the best imitation People's Liberation Army outfits, the only touches that would make this community out of place in California or New York. "French" trees lined the gently curving asphalt streets, actually plane trees so-called because they were originally imported by the French into Shanghai, though some of the "villas" here boast palm trees to complete the California feel.
At least one car graces every driveway and dealerships line the arterial road just like in the U.S.: Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Lexus, Suzuki, Volkswagen. The cars are varied—"buy domestic" does not seem to be a part of Chinese politics to judge by the vehicles preferred by officials—Audi A6s; Buick Excelles and Regals; Chevrolet Epicas; Citroën 88s; Ford Focuses; Honda Accords; Hyundai Elantras; Toyota Prados and Reizs; Volkswagen Jettas, Passats and Santanas; along with a smattering of Great Walls, Geerys and Chang'ans from domestic manufacturers.
Even though the Chinese capital of Beijing has, by fiat, closed factories or moved them to the outskirts of town, eliminated the burning of crop residues in fields, seeded the clouds to produce cleansing rain and planted bulwarks of trees against the encroaching Gobi desert, the city's air is still thick with smog and other pollution. The reason is cars (with an assist from atmospheric conditions and illegal factories in neighboring provinces).
Although there are only roughly three million cars in this city of 16 million, according to government statistics, the vehicles dominate the city's environment—and roughly 1,000 new cars are added every day. Much like Los Angeles, the air does not always move in Beijing and when it doesn't, pollution builds up.
With cooperative weather, the air can be cleaner, as proven by an experiment last year in which 1.3 million cars in the city were banned from driving and pollution levels dropped by 6,400 tons (5,800 metric tons), according to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Environmental Protection. The capital city will go farther in its effort to produce an unpolluted atmosphere for the Olympics: in addition to repeating the car ban, 300,000 trucks and other high emissions vehicles have been banned from the capital's roads until September 20, reducing the total number of trucks allowed to operate to just 4,000, the lowest possible level that will still permit enough goods to be moved. Even the government vehicles with their distinctive white license plates with red characters cannot avoid the ban; 210,000 of them will be similarly sidelined.
Despite these efforts, the air has refused to clear in Beijing and the government may resort to an even more comprehensive ban—90 percent of personal vehicles kept from the roads. Even so, the capital city consistently fails to meet World Health Organization standards for soot, according to a report from Greenpeace.
The Chinese government hopes to avoid an auto-driven environmental apocalypse both by mandating increasing fuel efficiency but also by pushing these domestic vehicle manufacturers for homegrown hybrid, electric and fuel-cell vehicles under its "863" program—deriving its name from its launch back in March 1986. At least 20 prototype hydrogen cars from Shanghai Volkswagen will be at the Olympics. "That's one of the strategies: electric cars, more railways, more subways to replace oil-driven transportation," says CREIA's Li Junfeng. "In no more than five years, China will be the biggest market [for hybrids]."
And foreign manufacturers are using China as a test bed for such advanced technologies. For example, General Motors has opened an automotive energy research center at Tsinghua University in Beijing and introduced its E-Flex concept cars—the Chevrolet Volt, Cadillac Provoq and Opel Flextreme—at the Beijing Auto Show in April. Ultimately, however, these cars will still rely on gasoline and/or electricity—and that electricity in China predominantly comes from polluting coal.
Shanghai, for its part, has put a cap on new car registrations—and mandated that 1,000 hydrogen fuel cell cars be ready for its World Expo in 2010. But that doesn't seem to be helping traffic.
The environmentally-friendly transportation solution for the cities of China is the same as that in the developed world: public transit; whether the blue, gray and yellow double buses zooming down special express lanes or the rapidly expanding subway lines of Beijing and Shanghai.
But even if the Chinese foreswear the car, an impossible prospect, that will still leave the 10 million trucks—and growing—the country needs to move goods from place to place. Such trucks are the primary traffic on most Chinese highways, trundling past signs that read in both Chinese and English "Don't driving when tired" or "Overspeeding prohibition" and groaning under heavy loads precariously held in place with netting and tarps.
"The driver needs more profits," explains environmental official Fan Changwei, of one such overburdened truck that looks like it might tip at any moment. "It's not easy because the price of oil is getting higher and higher." Both economically and environmentally.
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11 Comments
Add CommentPerhaps China should forget hybrid, solar, or hydrogen cars as a solution to this problem (dunno what they'll do about traffic snarls though!). Look to the compressed air car developed by George Negre of MDI in France....
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thishttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4w6aJMNXSk&feature=related
Very sexy!! (Although it's a 2004 report)
MDI's site....
http://www.mdi.lu/eng/affiche_eng.php?page=accueil
Lots of people interested, (Tata in India) including Australia....
http://altfuelsaustralia.wordpress.com/2007/12/03/mdis-air-car-to-be-built-in-melbourne/
I hope this does not go the way of the electric car ...'Who Killed the Electric Car'
When 1.4 billions chinese move from bicycles to cars then the entire planet earth will filled with CO2 and therefore the world climate will come to chaotic weather pattern as has seen from now on!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIn otherwords, what chinese love something then the entire world has been suffered right after!
Even 1.4 billions chinese breathe the air that also lead to the CO2 of this planet get worst! and cars for chinese for sure will become the world disaster and no question asked!
And another nightmare is 1.5 billions indians will drive cars and this will double the murdering to this planet earth and the entire world citizens as the whole!
Sad sad sad for this planet that carries too many two-legged creatures to create havoc to the mother nature!
Chinese coal burning and cars driving contribute greatest danger to the world climate change as we all see in any corner of the world!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhen chinese burn up all coal in china and imported coal from the world then this planet earth will go down the drain! and all world cities will submerge by sea or at least the world will start using canoes to go to work instead of cars!
CO2 made in China is so great that no any single two-legged creature on this planet can avoid it as 30 years ago!
The world will soon discover sadly that Chia and India are two main nation beside USA to destroy this planet earth!
hihi.I'm a chinese sudent,as I see ,China is inverting her careless environmental developing style into a more envir-friendly model.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI am an environmental professional holding a PhD degree in this area, and I am not a Chinese. I am writing this as a kind of expert...
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe entire earth are in danger and crisis due to its severe pollution. Not only Chinese, but also Americans in the States "should" be aware that they are responsible for consuming more than 30% of the entire resources on the earth, resulting in more contributions to the global warming and greenhouse gases emission.
I see many Americans in the US are very ignorant about how much they are used to live under the benefits from the fossil fuels. These people are laze to move without vehicles, even a block distance.. , thinking
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI suggest the reporter who wrote this article to look back on your life-patterns and attitudes on the energy consumption.
We know the planet is endangered! God knows if we will even survive. But my point is that we also know that, despite big words, nobody is going to suddenly stop polluting.......but a compressed air car is one way of going to stop the further pollution that millions more cars in China and India would contribute to this train wreck. I think that it is more possible in these countries to mandate some part of the solution along these lines than in the West. We are just too damned selfish to make the change - can you see a Hummer driver downsizing to even a normal family sized car, let alone an economy/utility one? Although, perhaps the price of petrol will drive a change in all but the most diehard revheads. I gather that Zero Pollution Motors (ZPM), MDIs North American representative, is producing a 6-seat, 4-door family-size model for around $18000. The economy/utility model will be produced by MDI for sale in France and elsewhere in 2009 at a price of beginning at around $5,000-$6,000 for the basic model - I want one of those! Almost zero pollution my friends (not sure of the embedded cost in the manufacture mind you)!!!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOnce again, my point is that we have to start somewhere that is possible, not just bemoan the awfulness of the current situation......maybe it won't work sufficiently to save the planet, but neither will just whinging!!
I don't have anything to do with these companies, but they have a cheap, non polluting vehicle almost ready.....what else is even on the horizon?
Who started and led such a style of living? The U.S.!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWho has started and led such a style of daily life? The US!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe first car manufacturers in the world were French: Panhard & Levassor (1889) and Peugeot (1891). By car manufacturer we mean builders of entire motor vehicles for sale and not just engine inventors who experimented with car design to test their engines - Daimler and Benz began as the latter before becoming full car manufacturers and made their early money by licensing their patents and selling their engines to car manufacturers.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFrance then Germany(Benz)
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this