Intelligence and technology have developed on the earth about halfway through the stable period in the lifetime of the sun. There are obvious selective advantages to intelligence and technology, at least up to the present evolutionary stage when technology also brings the threats of ecological catastrophes, the exhaustion of natural resources and nuclear war. Barring such disasters, the physical environment of the earth will remain stable for many more billions of years. It is possible that the number of individual steps required for the evolution of intelligence and technology is so large and improbable that not all inhabited planets evolve technical civilizations It is also possible-some would say likely-that civilizations tend to destroy themselves at about our level of technological development. On the other hand, if there are 100 billion suitable planets in our galaxy, if the origin of life is highly probable, if there are billions of years of evolution available on each such planet and if even a small fraction of technical civilizations pass safely through the early stages of technological adolescence, the number of technological civilizations in the galaxy today might be very large.

It is obviously a highly uncertain exercise to attempt to estimate the number of such civilizations. The opinions of those who have considered the problem differ significantly. Our best guess is that there are a million civilizations in our galaxy at or beyond the earth's present level of technological development. If they are distributed randomly through space, the distance between us and the nearest civilization should be about 300 light-years. Hence any information conveyed between the nearest civilization and our own will take a minimum of 300 years for a one-way trip and 600 years for a question and a response.

Electromagnetic radiation is the fastest and also by far the cheapest method of establishing such contact. In terms of the foreseeable technological developments on the earth, the cost per photon and the amount of absorption of radiation by interstellar gas and dust, radio waves seem to be the most efficient and economical method of interstellar communication. Interstellar space vehicles cannot be excluded a priori, but in all cases they would be a slower, more expensive and more difficult means of communication.

Since we have achieved the capability for interstellar radio communication only in the past few decades, there is virtually no chance that any civilization we come in contact with will be as backward as we are. There also seems to be no possibility of dialogue except between very long-lived and patient civilizations. In view of these circumstances, which should be common to and deducible by all the civilizations in our galaxy, it seems to us quite possible that one-way radio messages are being beamed at the earth at this moment by radio transmitters on planets in orbit around other stars.

To intercept such signals we must guess or deduce the frequency at which the signal is being sent, the width of the frequency band, the type of modulation and the star transmitting the message. Although the correct guesses are not easy to make, they are not as hard as they might seem.

Most of the astronomical radio spectrum is quite noisy. There are contributions from interstellar matter, from the three-degree-Kelvin background radiation left over from the early history of the universe, from noise that is fundamentally associated with the operation of any detector and from the absorption of radiation by the earth's atmosphere. This last source of noise can be avoided by placing a radio telescope in space. The other sources we must live with and so must any other civilization..

There is, however, a pronounced minimum in the radio-noise spectrum. Lying at the minimum or near it are several natural frequencies that should be discernible by all scientifically advanced societies. They are the resonant frequencies emitted by the more abundant molecules and free radicals m interstellar space. Perhaps the most obvious of these resonances is the frequency of 1,420 megahertz (millions of cycles per second). That frequency is emitted when the spinning electron in an atom of hydrogen spontaneously flips over so that its direction of spin is opposite to that of the proton comprising the nucleus of the hydrogen atom. The frequency of the spin-flip transition of hydrogen at 1,420 megahertz was first suggested as a channel for interstellar communication in 1959 by Philip Morrison and Giuseppe Cocconi. Such a channel may be too noisy for communication precisely because hydrogen, the most abundant interstellar gas, absorbs and emits radiation at that frequency. The number of other plausible and available communication channels is not large, so that determining the right one should not be too difficult.