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It's one thing to wish for a boy or a girl when pregnant; but it's something else entirely to take steps to guarantee your wish comes true. Enter China and India, where the ratio of boys to girls is so lopsided that economists project there may be as many as 30 to 40 million more men than women of marriageable age in both countries by 2020.
The question is: Why? It's more than just the historic birth ratio of 105 boys for every 100 girls. Both abortion and infanticide, largely triggered by a long-time limit of one child per family in China, each played a role. The skewed populations have prompted Chinese men, left with a limited pool of potential brides at home, to seek wives in other regions of their own countries as well as those abroad. But a dearth of mates isn't the only concern for population giants China and India, which together account for 2.4 billion of the 6.7 billion people on Earth.
There are 119 boys born for every 100 girls in China today, compared with 108.5 boys per 100 girls during the 1980s. Recent national data is less comprehensive for India, but census records show 115 boys born for every 100 girls in 2003. That represents a major leap from 104 boys per 100 girls in 1981. By comparison, the U.S. is closer to average: 105 boys for every 100 girls this year.
The growing imbalance slows in older age because women tend to outlive men, with the ratio in both countries falling to about 106 men per 100 women after age 60. But such figures are cold comfort for younger men who lack marriage prospects in their age groups.
China's lopsided population woes began in the early 1980s when its government began enforcing a one child per couple rule. The cap was first adopted in 1979 as part of a series of ongoing measures to curb population growth to help the government manage the country's still-limited resources. The move correlated with an attempt by Chinese authorities to improve healthcare that included taking portable ultrasound machines to the most isolated rural villages, which gave women advanced knowledge of the sex of her fetus.
The Chinese have traditionally preferred sons because of their potential to financially support their parents, carry on the family name, and lead ancestor worship, population experts say, and this holds particularly true for rural areas where sons provide much-needed labor. This cultural preference has led many women under the one-child rule to seek abortions, which are legal in China, if they discovered a fetus was a budding girl. The advent of abortion technology has largely replaced the practice of abandoning baby girls, which was more widespread when the one-child rule was first adopted.
Local officials now have flexibility to enforce the policy as they see fit. Rural Chinese are typically allowed to have two children instead of just one; in fact, only roughly 36 percent of the population, primarily in cities, is subject to the rule, according to the National Population and Family Planning Commission. In recent years, these urban Chinese also flout the rules and have more than one child, typically losing societal benefits and paying a fine based on how much the couple earns.
The existence of families with more than one child has allowed researchers to track the practice of sex selection before birth, particularly since hard data on abortion and infanticide is scarce.
Health policy expert Avraham Ebenstein of Harvard University examined China's 2000 census data and found that the sex ratio of first births for couples was close to the natural sex ratio, but it became increasingly skewed following the birth of one or more daughters. That suggests parents value firstborns regardless of sex, but practice sexual selection for later children if they do not yet have a boy. "The steep rise in sex selection rate between first and second births is responsible for 70 percent of missing girls," Ebenstein says.
There is not a one-child policy in India, but parents there apparently make similar decisions driven by cultural views of daughters as financial burdens—largely because of the dowries required before marriage. The sex ratio for second and third Indian births became increasingly slanted if the firstborn was a girl, but was roughly 50–50 if the first birth was a boy, according to a 2006 Lancet article. The situation led Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to denounce the half-million annual abortions of Indian female fetuses as "a national shame" earlier this year. Killing or abandoning infants has historically existed in India and may also play a role.
Chinese, Korean, and Indian parents in the U.S. with children born in this country show a similar cultural bias according to a recent study in Proceedings of the National Academies of Science. This was particularly apparent in the 2000 U.S. census of the third of three children: boys outnumbered girls by 50 percent if there was no previous son.
Modernization typically leads to a drop-off in the number of children per family, but the preference for sons does not fall as quickly, Ebenstein says. That was evident in modernizing Asian countries such as South Korea and Taiwan, which both saw skewing in the ratio of girl and boy births during the 1980s.
Those countries have recently seen a shift back toward a balanced sex ratio, which spells hope for China and India further down the road. For instance, South Korea had a birth sex ratio of just 107.4 boys for every 100 girls in 2006, compared with 116.5 boys for every 100 girls in 1990. The reverse trend draws power from the strengthening social and economic status of women, as well as the parental desire to have a nuclear family consisting of one boy and one girl.
Baby boy bias is not as widespread in countries outside Asia—at least not enough to prompt parents to attempt to control the sex of their newborns. Studies show the birth sex ratio of males to females fell in North America and Europe during the latter half of the 20th century, although it was not significantly skewed to begin with. South American countries do not have widespread prenatal sex selection because of Catholic beliefs, according to political scientist Valerie Hudson of Brigham Young University, and Africans cherish the earning capacity of daughters. Only some other Central and East Asian countries such as Vietnam now see birth sex ratios near that of China or India.
The growing number of "bare branches"—as the Chinese call young men without the opportunity to marry—was deemed "a hidden danger" that will "affect social stability," according to a 2007 statement by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council. Hudson has also suggested that social instability such as rising crime and even rebellion historically follow any large number of "bare branches," although other social scientists such as Ebenstein remain reluctant to extend such parallels to modern China or India.
A more indisputable result has been Chinese bachelors joining South Koreans and others in searching for foreign wives, particularly from neighboring Asian countries such as Vietnam and even North Korea. That solution, however, may prove fleeting as Vietnam struggles with its own growing imbalance in birth sex ratio. All countries involved can only hope that their "bare branches" cross borders to make love, not war.
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12 Comments
Add CommentThis is actually the truth in China..
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMany bachelors are fraid that they can't find wives according to this fact..
Well, as the development of technology, maybe this trend is hard to resist. Or the goverment should provide some incentives to prevent this ongoing situation.
Yeah, this a the very fact in China...
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMany bachelors are fraid that they are not able to find women to marry.
With the development of technology, this situation might be difficult to resist. Maybe government should provide some incentives to encourage family to raise baby grils.
People are generally marrying or getting hitched later and later. They are having fewer and fewer kids and at an older age (Above 30s). This does not bode well for the human race. The poor will continue to populate at a faster rate. The middle class and rich will slow down their growth rate leading to imbalances in the countries and more problems down the road that need to be addressed or will get out of control. Eventually, somebody will pay for this and it better be someone else and not me. That is the attitude and it will result in some unnecessary suffering and wars.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhat worries me mostly: In olden times, redundant young men were sent into monastries or to war. There are no more that many monastries today...
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt's true that more young men in China will be confronted with marriage problems. And the interesting thing lies in that TV series of North Korean is very popular in China, especially those which descibe a nice young girl with pesistent willpower in her life and almost perfect in very aspects. The popularity is due to the fact that young men hope to marry such a pretty Korean girl and in their mind, Korean women are tender to their husbands and laborious in doing housework.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisHow politically correct (and humorous) it is that the author has found it necessary to use the two terms "abortion" and "infanticide" is this article to describe the same thing (ie getting rid of unwanted females). I suppose everyone rests a bit easier knowing that some were aborted and not simply aboandoned after birth. Oh how civilized the Chinese have become!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI think the imbalance has nothing to do with abortion and the policy of one-child. It is totally determined by the traditional intention of Chinese people. India, a nation that is not executing one-child policy, has proved this.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thispeople should be allowed to have more than one child.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisHi, I was just wondering what issue and volume of scientific american magazine was this article published in?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisi find this utterly revolting if this continues who knows what will become of the next generation of Chinese children. There culture will die since more Chineses men at this time are forced to find wives in other countries because they simply cannot find a compatible wife, there 's not enough women.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI find this as in the rule that they have decided to envoke on the Chinese citizens ridiculous. I find it utterly revolting that there is so much pressure on women to conceive boys.I mean what is going to happen to the next generation of the Chinese children, their rich culture and traditions are going to die since men are having to go to different countries to find a wife. For instance, more men are going to Korea and their cultures are different which makes it harder , since it is not fair to just continue one so both in a way are being neglected. This is not working out whatsoever their goverment needs to find a solution to this dilemma
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFor countries like China, which has already established itself in the global playing field, a lopsided ration of men to women can cause damage, but there aren't really any immediate threats. The problem with India is that dowries, infanticide, abortion, lack of education, lack of sanitation, lack of health care, and other such issues related to the basics of a quality lifestyle can cause such things like issues related to population, which can cause major harm to a country beginning to make a name for itself. India became independent in the aftermath of the Second World War, in which technology soared in Western civilization. By the 1950s, it would become impossible for a young nation like India to catch up to longtime superpowers like America and Russia. China was able to catch up recently, with a booming economy. But India is still struggling, with great social divides (caste system), religious issues, population and marriage, and basic lifestyle needs. I find the lack of these issues boils down to the lack of education and proper schooling. In America, where a working school system for children and adults is in place, people have access to things like the Internet and newspaper. But in India, when many children leave school to earn a few rupees to help feed their families, kids don't learn about these kinds of issues that need to be solved. If everyone in India had a basic education (at least could read and write), Indians wouldn't be facing electrical problems, corrupt politicians, lack of education, lack of family planning (the Emergency Period), and lack of sanitation and money. If everyone had an education, simply, things would be a lot better. India can get itself out of the mess it made for itself, but it will take time and dedication. So far I see none of those things, not even a regard for these problems, from the people or politicians. Thats another problem in India: everyone cares for themselves, and never give a [expletive] for anyone else.
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