The project, whose initial run took place between April and June of this year, produced weekly forecasts of sea ice movement and melting with an eye to walrus hunting, rather than shipping or fishing.
But unlike the traditional model of scientific research, in which researchers arrive at a conclusion and communicate it to the public, the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook was designed to incorporate detailed observations from expert hunters in participating Native communities, tapping generations of wisdom gleaned by those living closest to the ice. It's part of an emerging body of science that seeks to inform Western science using traditional knowledge.
In this case, that required reconciling two different approaches to Arctic ice, said the National Weather Service's Hufford. Scientists often focus on the Arctic as a region, while hunters are experts on the sea ice within about 50 miles of their villages.
"Many still hunt bowhead whale in skin boats made of walrus," he said. "They really know their local waters."
In Gambell, for instance, local hunters "have a vision of at least three or four waves of sea ice passing by in spring," said Igor Krupnik, a cultural anthropologist at the Smithsonian Institution who has worked closely with Alaska Natives to document their traditional environmental knowledge. "What scientists see as just ice breakup and retreat, to local people, it's a combination of four or five different events. It's a very different mechanism. They can see where the ice is coming from."
Enlisting hunters to keep watch
The project did hit some practical hurdles, such as figuring out how to transmit the forecasts to hunters who live in remote villages where access to the Internet can be slow and spotty. The scientists ended up putting the forecasts on the Web in regular and stripped-down "low-bandwidth" versions. They also faxed copies to village offices, harbor patrol offices and general stores.
The effort has already paid off for researchers, said Eicken, the University of Alaska scientist spearheading the forecast project. Reports sent in by Winton Weyapuk, an elder in the villages of Wales, show that the scientists' forecasting model "consistently" underestimated the wind speeds in the Bering Strait region, he said. That's important because wind, along with currents and sea surface temperatures, determines the motion of the ice.
Weyapuk has been working with Eicken and other scientists for several years. For the last four years, he has kept a daily log of weather and ice conditions at their request.
"It's a different world when you have someone like Winton working with you," said Krupnik, who has collaborated with Weyapuk on an illustrated dictionary of Inupiaq sea ice terms used in Wales. "We're learning a tremendous amount of new stuff."
Another hunter, Curtis Nayokpuk, sent in detailed reports on a peculiar ice formation -- what Eicken called an "ice nose" -- near his village, Shishmaref.
"This year the Wales Shoal shore ice is back!" Nayokpuk wrote in a dispatch included in the April 9 forecast. "Looks like it has frozen to historic size/thickness and winter/spring south winds have not chipped away at the shoal ice buildup. This means that the migrating sea mammals will be farther out from Shishmaref (direct route from Wales to Pt. Hope) and will require longer or more boat trips to find the walrus and Oogruk [bearded seal] this year."
Many scientists now predict the Arctic could see ice-free summers by 2040. That's not good news for the walruses. Jay's best guess is that over the next decade or so, years when the ice edge recedes above the continental shelf will become more frequent. What appeared to be aberrant behavior in the summer of 2007 -- walruses hauling out on land -- could become the rule.
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7 Comments
Add CommentAdapt or perish. The environment will change. It changes faster because of human's population growth curve.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisC'mon, where are the dimwits? Where are the deniers? C'mon, tell us your hypotheses! Explain to us how a shrinkage in Arctic ice is actually an increase, like you've been lying about in Antarctica.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWill you be so cavalier when it is humans turn to "adapt or perish?"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thissisko says, "It changes faster because of human's population growth curve."
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this****************
Are you trying to tell us that the population growth in the extreme far north is increasing and encroaching on the walrus?
World-wide population growth does tend to foster world-wide climatic problems, but it is a simplistic response to the problem.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt is conceivable, however unlikely, that we could continue to grow as a species for quite some time. I don't mean to imply that that would be a good thing. There are ancient, current and emerging technologies (in the sense of methods - not silicon etc) that could save our bacon.
I'm afraid, though, that since these ways of doing things would upset the profit margins of 'the powers that be' we'll never see them applied in time, or on the scale necessary, to do the job.
Oh Well...
At the moment, the core of our discussions should be re-defining the human activities/existence in nature. It is obvious that romantic democracy system, which puts the humanity over everything has eventually failed. We need an amendmend in Constituton with following clauses:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this1- Nature has absolute sovereignty and has the right to sustain.
2- Every person has the right to defend the Rights of Nature in Courts.
3- Waste producing human activities (including urbanization) can only be allowed if waste stabilization is provided in 20 years maximum.
If USA is not going to provoke above consciousness in the world, who is going to do it?
@lakota- I am stating that the number of humans on the planet overall are consuming resources and producing wastes at ever increasing rates per person. The per person consumption growth in consumption will continue to rise. If more is not done to eliminate worldwide population growth there will be consequences to the environment.
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