Americans scrapped 4 million more cars and trucks last year than they purchased, the first significant drop in the U.S. auto fleet in more than four decades, according to a new report.

The United States scrapped 14 million vehicles last year while buying only 10 million new ones, dropping the nation's fleet from an all-time high of 250 million to 246 million, according to the Earth Policy Institute.

Lester Brown, the author of the report, said the drop -- the first significant shrinkage the U.S. fleet has seen since record-keeping began in 1960 -- represents a "cultural shift away from the car" and estimated the fleet size will continue to recede during the next decade. He estimated the fleet could shrink a total of 10 percent by 2020.

"No one knows how many cars will be sold in the years ahead, but given the many forces at work, U.S. car sales may never again reach the 17 million that were sold each year between 1999 and 2007," Brown said. "Sales seem more likely to remain between 10 million and 14 million per year."

The report comes one day after the automakers posted sales numbers for December, a month that showed a small but significant uptick in sales and brought a close to what has been one of the worst years in the history of the industry.

Brown said this summer's federal Cash for Clunkers program, which paid Americans to scrap old cars and trucks for newer, more fuel-efficient ones, played only a small role in the downward trend because it accounted for roughly 700,000 cars. "It has an effect but a minor one," he said.

Instead, Brown attributed the drop to a number of other factors and stressed that it was being driven by more than just the current economic recession, which is widely seen as the major cause of the recent sales slump that has plagued the auto industry.

Among the reasons cited in the report were market saturation caused by more registered vehicles than licensed drivers, economic and environmental concerns, and a shift away from the importance and prestige of the automobile in the youth culture.

"Perhaps the most fundamental social trend affecting the future of the automobile is the declining interest in cars among young people," Brown said. "Many of today's young people living in a more urban society learn to live without cars. They socialize on the Internet and on smart phones, not in cars."

Assuming the fleet downsizing continues, Brown said it would cut long-term oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, which currently accounts for roughly a third of U.S. emissions. He said it could also lead to increases in steel supplies as big cars get recycled and fewer are produced.

He said the trend will also decrease the need to build new roads and highways, and that fewer cars and trucks on the road would cut maintenance and repair costs, as well as decrease demand for parking lots and parking garages.

"As this evolution proceeds, it will affect virtually every facet of life," Brown said.

The report was based on data from the Transportation Department's Federal Highway Administration and was compiled with the help of R.L. Polk & Co., an automotive research and consulting firm.

Reprinted from Greenwire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500

6 Comments

1. 1. nc001 08:39 PM 1/6/10

   There is no report about the high value for scrap metal last year. Old scrap cars that used to sit around in fields (not burning a drop of gas) were scrapped last year due to the high price on salvage metal. Not really because we were just cleaning up.

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2. 2. MCMalkemus 07:25 AM 1/7/10

   If the move is away from gas guzzlers and towards PT, that's fantastic.
   
   First of course, Public Transport has to be made desirable.
   
   At the present time, most of it isn't.

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3. 3. hypnometal 12:16 PM 1/7/10

   Agreed on the public transportation point. When I moved to New York, I sold my car, and 99% of the time, I don't miss it. It's only when I have to carry something heavy, and for that, there's services like zipcar. Boston is almost to that point, but it's not there quite yet - there are still some places out in the suburbs that are a little tough to get to. But there are plenty of cities and metropolitan areas that could develop a public transit system or even a subway system if they'd just put in the capital to do so.

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4. 4. jerryd 03:37 PM 1/7/10

   
   
   I think it's high value of dead cars, cars dying from being run into the ground and fewer needed because 25 million are out of a job. While we might not get back to 17 million cars/yr, it will probably get to 16M or so.
   
   I sold my car for scrap and built a Harley size EV MC trike which only costs me $100/yr to drive!! It gets 600mpg equivalent. Next I'm building a 2 seat all composite EV sportwagon that gets 250mpge, 100 mile range and 80mph on lead batteries. On lithium it would get 350 mile range. But a small 5kw generator gives me unlimited range at 100mpg. It will be the future though it will take a while before Detroit gives you one.

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5. 5. jh443 07:34 PM 1/7/10

   It would be nice if there could be a move to public transportation, but for most places that's not likely. In northern Ohio, for example, both the Cleveland and Akron systems are cutting back on hours and number of routes. Lorain completely eliminated it.
   

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6. 6. rboelte 10:58 PM 1/7/10

   You do realize we are in the worst economic recession in seventy years?

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