GLOBAL WARMING: The Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula--an area of ice larger than Rhode Island--collapsed as a result of climate change and now such global warming has been detected across Antarctica.
Image: NASA
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The Best Science Writing Online 2012
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Humanity's impact on climate has been detected on every continent except Antarctica, or so said the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in February 2007. No longer: scientists, comparing decades of records from 17 Antarctic weather stations with computer simulations of Earth's climate, found that human-induced global warming has been heating up the continent that is home to the South Pole, as well.
"We have detected the human fingerprint in both the Arctic and Antarctic region[s]," says Peter Stott, a climate modeler at the U.K. Met (meteorological) Office's Hadley Center, and co-author of the study published in the journal Nature Geoscience.
The researchers compared 100 years of weather records from the Arctic and 50-plus years of those kept on Antarctica with the results of four computer models. Their findings: natural influences such as changes in the amount of sunlight or volcanic eruptions did not explain the warming trends, but the results matched when increasing levels of greenhouse gas emissions were added to the mix.
In the past few decades, average Arctic temperatures have warmed roughly 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius); average temperatures in Antarctica have warmed slightly less than 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius).
Lead study author Nathan Gillett, a climatologist at Environment Canada, the government ministry charged with Canadian environmental protection and issues, notes that the collapse of the Larsen B and Wilkins ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula, which has warmed more than any other part of the entire world, has already been linked to global warming.
As if the new finding is not disturbing enough, researchers may have underestimated the temperature change because they gave equal weight to readings from the cold continental interior—where another man-made problem, the ozone hole, has contributed to cooling in the spring and summer—and coastal regions, where warming is more pronounced.
"These areas are most susceptible to climate warming in the coming century in Antarctica, because they are the closest to the melt threshold," says climatologist Andrew Monaghan of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., who was not involved in this study but reviewed the research.
After all, it is those areas that are closest to the melting point that can tip precipitously—as did Arctic Ocean sea ice in recent years. "One quarter to one half of the Antarctic coastline has some substantial warming going on as of now," Monaghan adds.
All told, if the eastern and western Antarctic ice shelves were to melt completely, they would raise sea levels by as much as 230 feet (70 meters); the collapse of smaller shelves like Larsen B has sped up the flow of glaciers behind them into the sea, contributing to the creeping up of high tide levels around the world. And that's likely to get worse before it gets better.
"There will be continued residual warming no matter what greenhouse gas reductions we make," Monaghan warns. "We really need to pay closer attention to what is going on with this ice sheet."
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20 Comments
Add CommentI believe that we will soon see a major event happening, if it is not happening already. That is the thermal "flipping" of the oceans in the polar regions. After many years of watching the spring thaw on the prairies of Canada, I am still amazed at how fast the ice finally melts in the spring on the surfaces of the ponds and lakes in the area. This is due to the fact that water is densest at a temperature of 4�C. While there is ice still on the surface of these bodies of water, the water there is near the freezing point while the water near the bottom is at most 4�C. As the ice melts, the water near the surface is colder than the deeper water below. Once the ice melts, the surface water is free to warm up. After a cold night in the spring, the cold surface water would frequently refreeze. However, eventually the surface water becomes warmer than 4� and the warmer water becomes less dense than the deeper water. Even after a very cold later spring night, the refreezing of the surface stops.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere are two situations that occur: the first is where the least dense water at the surface is below 4� and the other where it is above that. Once the latter occurs, any remaining ice rapidly melts in a very short time. At some brief point in time, the water is about the same temperature at the surface as at the depths. After that the water does a thermal "flip", which then makes any newly reforming ice very short lived.
I do not think this point has been reached in the Arctic yet, but it must be very close. The water in the depths of the ocean even near the equator remain at the magic 4�, but the surface water can be very much warmer. However, once the surface water near the poles exceeds this temperature level, the ability of the surface to refreeze will become seriously impaired, and the warm surface water will provide a sudden and rapid increase in the melting of the ice on the landmasses nearby. The slow melting of that ice seen over the last several decades will be condensed into a very brief period lasting just a few years.
The same effect in the fall is seen in reverse. The initial freezing of the surface takes a lot of cold nights to cool the warm surface water to the freezing point, but once that happens, the ice forms rapidly at even relatively mild, sub-freezing temperatures.
I fear we will be continuously amazed at how fast the polar ice melts in the short term future. I hope there is ongoing research into the temperature gradient of the polar oceans, but it is likely that is process is well underway.
I believe that we will soon see a major event happening, if it is not happening already. That is the thermal "flipping" of the oceans in the polar regions. After many years of watching the spring thaw on the prairies of Canada, I am still amazed at how fast the ice finally melts in the spring on the surfaces of the ponds and lakes in the area. This is due to the fact that water is densest at a temperature of 4ºC. While there is ice still on the surface of these bodies of water, the water there is near the freezing point while the water near the bottom is at most 4ºC. As the ice melts, the water near the surface is colder than the deeper water below. Once the ice melts, the surface water is free to warm up. After a cold night in the spring, the cold surface water would frequently refreeze. However, eventually the surface water becomes warmer than 4º and the warmer water becomes less dense than the deeper water. Even after a very cold later spring night, the refreezing of the surface stops.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere are two situations that occur: the first is where the least dense water at the surface is below 4º and the other where it is above that. Once the latter occurs, any remaining ice rapidly melts in a very short time. At some brief point in time, the water is about the same temperature at the surface as at the depths. After that the water does a thermal "flip", which then makes any newly reforming ice very short lived.
I do not think this point has been reached in the Arctic yet, but it must be very close. The water in the depths of the ocean even near the equator remain at the magic 4º, but the surface water can be very much warmer. However, once the surface water near the poles exceeds this temperature level, the ability of the surface to refreeze will become seriously impaired, and the warm surface water will provide a sudden and rapid increase in the melting of the ice on the landmasses nearby. The slow melting of that ice seen over the last several decades will be condensed into a very brief period lasting just a few years.
The same effect in the fall is seen in reverse. The initial freezing of the surface takes a lot of cold nights to cool the warm surface water to the freezing point, but once that happens, the ice forms rapidly at even relatively mild, sub-freezing temperatures.
I fear we will be continuously amazed at how fast the polar ice melts in the short term future. I hope there is ongoing research into the temperature gradient of the polar oceans, but it is likely that is process is well underway.
Unless I am sadly mistaken, and I may well be, the melting of the ice shelves will have no "direct" impact on ocean levels, because the ice is already displacing the volume of itself.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFrom what I understand, the "indirect" impact would be a possible increase of the speed of the glaciers and they move toward the sea. This infusion of ice would have the effect mentioned in the article.
Have I missed something?
Yes you have missed something, ice floats. therefore there is alot of ice above the surface... Get where i'm going with this?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisActually, these ice shelves are supported by land and therefore not currently displacing water. And they appear to be (based on events subsequent to Larsen B and Wilkins collapses) slowing the flow of backing glaciers to the sea. So it is really a double whammy when one of these Antarctic ice shelves go. Hope that helps.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThus far i personally have and continue to compile and evaluate research from various globally accredited individuals. My personal hypothesis is that the planet will change drastically starting now and more so by next summer. The scientific communities should research ways to SLOW DOWN or STABILIZE the inevitable. We should NOW implement research into how we can best adapt to these extreme changes which even now have begun to affect the planet and are going to escalate extraordinarily fast in the next 5 years. 1. First we need to stop/slow the fresh water melt-off in both ARCTIC areas. In winter we should induce ICE/SNOW accumulation. In the summer we must prevent this accumulation from melting off. 2. We need to desalinize ocean water and pump this water (a) for daily use (b) pump to storage tanks in higher elevations areas(cooler temp. will help maintain water in tanks)(c) use to irrigate lakes and streams(see z). 3. {z} we need to start a global irrigation system. Irrigating mountains,rainforest's etc. will allow regrowth which will ease global warming and will help prevent animals from dying off (or as now are entering cities for water and food). This will avoid Biological events such as plague,cholera amongst others. This will also help hydro-dams to continue functioning! (no water,no electricity till we build more solar,wind plants) 4. we need to build purification stations at outlets of ALL rivers and sewage plants. We must reuse our river and sewage water and must allow a portion back to ocean to keep ecological system sustained. This could also help prevent TOXIC ALGAE along coasts and could reduce acidic level of ocean thus reducing DEAD ZONES.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this5. We need to prepare a plan NOW so that if all attempts FAIL and ocean turned ACIDIC AND STAGNANT. This would cause CONTAMINATED RAIN GLOBALLY. This rain would contaminate our air,land and sea and reduce freshwater supplies globally. 6 We must continue to monitor and research the changes that are presently occurring on EARTH. We will need this data as we attempt to MODIFY EARTH to a more STABLE CONDITION.
In closing, the PLANET IS DYING and we must ACT NOW! Ask Me No Questions I Tell You No Lies!
The only thing in this article that is likely true, is the ice shelf breaking off. The rest is total fiction. No man-made global warming exists. There is no man made ozone hole. The hole forms because of lack of sunlight. The sun creates ozone. When the antarctic summer returns, the ozone hole closes. This whole article would find a good home in "The Onion"
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Not human fingerprint in both the Arctic and Antarctic region[s]," as per says Peter Stott.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisAn amazing prophesies of a Maya Calendar and the Aztecs, stops it’s predictions on 12. 21st 2012, some have
come to the conclusions that because of a very street line of alignments between the Planets in the Solar system,
there may be a very great disaster occurring then, (many other prophets and the Bible predicts the same)
In my dream, I was told that a disaster will occur 10th to 25th of Dece, 2016. When the North American plate will
start moveing South 15* degree, (few degree at times) Considering, it means that the North Pole, will be over the
New Siberian Is. At the existing 75 degree North.
And the South Pole will be over the Waddell Sea & Palmer Land, at the existing 75-degree south
New York will be over the existing degree of El Salvador, North of Bahamas, and no other explanation given, except
looking East from Vancouver B.C. the plate at the Horizontal end of Vision, (which is 3 hours) will move few degree
at the time to the Right, to a total of 15 degree.
The climate is always changing from ice ages to warm periods and so on. It's been like that for over 4 billion years but we judge everything based on pseudo-scientific models promoted by politicians with an agenda. There is no scientific evidence of "human-induced climate change" (formerly known as "global warming"...) but ignorance is bliss as long as people don't look for the raw data and analyze by themseves. There are active volcanoes under both Arctic and Antarctic ice shelves and there was less ice in the past than is now. Anyways, you can find more info about this subject at http://www.icecap.us/
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisGo to youtube.com and find out the truth about the so called global warming agenda. Type in planet-X to find out the truth about actual causes of global warming...it is'nt man made catastrophe as some in government want you to believe. Planet-X people is real and it is comming to our solar system....soon!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMan-made global warming is a lie. Check this out: http://nov55.com/gbwm.html
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt's impossible for CO2 to heat the atmosphere enough to have any significant impact. Please see: There is no Valid Mechanism for CO2 Creating Global Warming at: http://nov55.com/ntyg.html
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe global warming we're witnessing is natural, and it's a precursor to the next ice age. Ice ages occur like clockwork about every 100,000 years, and natural global warming has preceded each ice age. It's been about 100,000 years since the last major ice age. The next one is imminent. Naturally warming oceans are melting the Arctic ice. The ice is melting from underneath. A slightly warmer atmosphere simply can't be the reason the ice is melting. Warmer oceans cause ice ages because as the oceans warm evaporation increases and precipitation increases. More precipitation means more snowfall. This is evident in the Antarctic. While the edges of the Antarctic ice cap and Antarctic sea ice are melting from warmer ocean water, the center of the continent is thickening due to increased snowfall, because oceans are warming and evaporation is increasing. Year after year evaporation increases, precipitation in the form of snow increases, and eventually the climate shifts into an ice age. Anthropogenic global warming/climate change is a lie. It's a way for governments to create yet another system of control and a new revenue stream through profit generating carbon cap-and-trade schemes. Everyone needs to wake up and see the truth. CO2 is not a pollutant. CO2 is an essential trace gas that makes life on Earth possible. The amount of CO2 we contribute to the atmosphere is miniscule compared to the amount the planet naturally contributes, and CO2 cannot overpower the greatest greenhouse gas: water vapor. We cannot accept any legislation that attempts to fix a problem that doesn't exist.
And if warming antarctic temperatures result in a dramatic increase in precipitation, the net effect is zero. But, of course, there's no money in that answer. And, of course, the models used for climate change don't take precipitation into account, so we'll just pretend precipitation is irrelevant and doesn't happen.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIn the 1970s when it was all about global cooling, the culprit was PM10. Guess what the major source of PM10 was. You got it: automobiles and coal fired power plants. The names of the actors change, but the play remains the same.
This is a very nice and interesting post which convey lot of useful information.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this-------------------
lauran
<a href="http://www.widecircles.com" rel="dofollow" rel="nofollow">http://www.widecircles.com</a>
This is a very nice and interesting post which convey lot of useful information.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this-------------------
lauran
<a href="http://www.widecircles.com" rel="dofollow" rel="nofollow">http://www.widecircles.com</a>
I visited this website. I cannot believe how many inaccuracies, half truths and utter nonsense are put forward as science on this website. First of all CO2 does not heat the planet it only prevents it from cooling down. The sun is the overwhelming source of heat and energy for all of the planet's surface. Almost all of life is made possible directly or indirectly by the energy supplied by the sun in the form of light.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisLet me respond to some of your statements which are largely taken from that website you mention.
Ice ages do not occur regularly as clockwork, there is a lot of variety in the occurrence of ice ages. There have been ice ages every 100000 years ON AVERAGE may be a true statement.
Only about 10000 to 20000 years have elapsed since the last ice age depending on how you define the end of an ice age.
If the ice is melting from underneath how come where I live we have snow and ice on and under the ground for 8 months of the year but it invariably melts during the summer months. It surely is not the warm ocean water being heated from beneath as I live 1000 kilometers from the nearest ocean. In addition the snow and ice melt at the surface first and only later does the ground frost disappear. In fact if you travel further north the ground frost is called permafrost and the ground stays frozen throughout the summer. No, there is very little warming from underneath most warming is from the sunlight hitting the ground and the air and warming both.
The oceans surface is being warmed by sunlight and yes by the atmosphere if the atmosphere happens to be warmer than the water.
Yes warmer oceans will cause more evaporation and more precipitation once the vapor condenses in the form of fog,rain and snow. More precipitation does not automatically mean more snow. In fact most precipitation will be in the form of rain and that is why we predict more floods as a consequence of global warming.
In the arctic and antarctic there is in fact relatively very little snow falling.
Most snow will fall around the edges of the arctic and antarctic because very cold air can only hold very little water. That is why the antarctic can easily be called a desert.
The big difference is that if any snow falls in the central antarctic it will stay around for a very long time as it hardly melts at all even during the antarctic summer. The accumulation of very little snow per year becomes a lot of snow and ice after a few tens of thousands of years. Consequently we have ice to a depth of more than a mile on Antarctica and Greenland.
It is true that when an ice age comes there is more snowfall and ice created at the edges of the polar regions. The ice fields expand over many thousands of years and an ice age is born. There is much evidence that each ice age was associated with a marked decrease in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere allowing the planet to cool faster than when there is more CO2 .
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe next point made is the large capacity of water vapor, mostly in the form of clouds, to prevent cooling of the planet. While it may be true that clouds are a strong agent for the greenhouse effect it is also true that clouds reflect a huge amount of solar radiation back out into space. Just think of a cloud coming over on a sunny day and you can easily notice the drop in temperature. The drop in temperature is caused by the sun's heat not reaching the planet's surface precisely because the sunshine is being reflected into space. Thus the greenhouse effect of clouds is offset by the clouds reflecting sunlight and preventing the planet of warming up in the first place. This is never mentioned on this website.
In fact the author claims that water vapor can change by a factor of 2 from day to day. Then he claims that somehow this causes 36,500,000,000 more warming per year than from CO2 because water vapor is "a 100 times stronger greenhouse gas agent" and there are more water vapor molecules than CO2 molecules in the atmosphere. He does not realize of course or he conveniently forgets that water vapor does not increase steadily but goes up and down by a factor of 2 or less from day to day. He also does not mention at all that wayer vapor reflects sunlight .
On the other hand while CO2 varies probably from day to day there has been a persistent increase in CO2 over the last couple of centuries. CO2 stays around a lot longer than water vapor. Thus CO2 will provide a net increase in temperature over time.
Also CO2 is almost totally transparent to sunlight but relatively opaque to infrared radiation leaving the planet. Thus CO2 reflects almost no sunlight but prevents infrared radiation from escaping into space. This will cause an increase in retained heat thus increasing the temperature.
The website also never mentions the other greenhouse gases such as methane. Methane is a much stronger GHG than CO2 as well. However methane is measured in parts per billion while CO2 is measured in parts per million. Nevertheless methane has been increasing in the atmosphere thus adding to the global warming.
I could go on and on but I'm out of characters now.
To get much more Rain to get Cooler
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisto form a Oxygen magnetic field to open the invisible hydrants in the Air^^
Do you know Why some fields always rain, but some never?
According to our Great Chinese's understanding,
it depends on the thickness of Oxygen around that area.
It is because that Oxygen will form a magnetic field to attract Hydrogen from outerspace,
and in the meantime the mist and clouds floating in the atmosphere
will be captured by the two layers to form the Effect of so called Sandwich.
And that means the Rain Drops will always fall down in that specific area with condensed Oxygen.
And that's the reason why the rain forests will always have plenty of rain, while deserts almost never rain.
So, we can plantEgeria densa (Willd.) Planch in water field to get much more Oxygen.
Or we can plant weeds and trees in land to get much more Oxygen.
So, don't worry about the sources of Water.
To get much more Rain to get Cooler
The soonest way is that we can use oxygen cylinders
to form a Oxygen magnetic field to open the invisible hydrants in the Air.
Maybe the Great China Government can provide much more information for you.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Reformed-Daoism/
To get much more Rain to get Cooler
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
to form a Oxygen magnetic field to open the invisible hydrants in the Air～～
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
Do you know Why some fields always rain, but some never?
According to our Great Chinese's understanding,
it depends on the thickness of Oxygen around that area.
It is because that Oxygen will form a magnetic field to attract Hydrogen from outerspace,
and in the meantime the mist and clouds floating in the atmosphere
will be captured by the two layers to form the Effect of so called Sandwich.
And that means the Rain Drops will always fall down in that specific area with condensed Oxygen.
And that's the reason why the rain forests will always have plenty of rain, while deserts almost never rain.
So, we can plant〔Egeria densa (Willd.) Planch 〕in water field to get much more Oxygen.
Or we can plant weeds and trees in land to get much more Oxygen.
To get much more Rain to get Cooler
The soonest way is that we can use oxygen cylinders to spread Oxygen in and area
to form a Oxygen magnetic field to open the invisible hydrants in the Air.
Maybe the Great China Government can provide much more information for you.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Reformed-Daoism/
Recent research shows that this part of Antarctica has been far warmer and colder in the past. The shift in weather patters there are nothing unusual, well within normal fluctuations and certainly not "UNPRECEDENTED!!!!!!!!!" as the headlines proclaim.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisNo science or story here. Time to move on.