Delmarva Peninsula, U.S. East Coast While flying above the Atlantic Ocean, one of the members of the joint Atlantis-International Space Station crews took this photo of the Delmarva Peninsula from the orbiting complex on July 16, 2011.
Image: NASA
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The Best Science Writing Online 2012
Showcasing more than fifty of the most provocative, original, and significant online essays from 2011, The Best Science Writing Online 2012 will change the way...
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NORFOLK, Va. - Water is inescapable in Virginia's second-largest city, home to the world's biggest naval base, three major port facilities and public and private shipyards. Norfolk is nearly surrounded by water: it sits at the mouth of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and the junction of the Elizabeth and James Rivers. Canals and creeks penetrate into many neighborhoods, and home sale listings highlight water access - "Within 50 feet of H2O - You can canoe and kayak!".
Yet as much as water is a resource in Norfolk and the surrounding area, known as Hampton Roads, it also represents a threat.
City and county leaders, already burdened with typical tasks of local governance - zoning, construction permits, liquor licenses, school board appointments - are also weighing multi-million-dollar flood control projects to keep the ocean at a livable distance. While they struggle to pull together know-how and funding, those with the broader view and resources - state agencies -are absent from the discussions: In a study released earlier this year, the Natural Resources Defense Council ranked Virginia as one of 29 states that were "largely unprepared and lagging behind" on planning for climate change at the state level.
In many ways the problem is already upon Norfolk. The Atlantic Ocean off Virginia's coast is rising a quarter of an inch annually, equivalent to two feet in 100 years - faster than anywhere else in the United States except for coastal Louisiana. The ocean at Sewells Point, site of the Norfolk Naval Station, rose 14.5 inches between 1930 and 2010. And that's likely to accelerate. Last month the U.S. Geological Survey reported that sea levels are rising more quickly along the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts than globally, possibly as a result of slowing Atlantic Ocean circulation patterns.
Planning for climate change is not a winning political platform in Virginia. Republican Governor Bob McDonnell said in 2010 that "to what degree [climate change] is attributable to manmade causes is a matter I will leave up to the experts," and shelved a climate change action plan proposed by a commission under his Democratic predecessor. Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli made headlines in 2010 for investigating University of Virginia climate scientist Michael Mann, and again this year for trying unsuccessfully to block the Environmental Protection Agency from regulating greenhouse gases.
But whatever state leaders think of climate change, local officials find they can't ignore increasingly apparent street-level impacts.
Most of Norfolk is less than 15 feet above sea level, and low-lying neighborhoods already flood regularly when heavy rains combine with high tides, swamping storm-water systems. The worst flooding in memory happened in 1933, when a hurricane and five-foot storm surge left residents wading thigh-deep on downtown streets. If sea levels rise between two and five feet in the area by 2100, as recent studies predict, that could become routine. Even now, city maps show that the surge from a Category Three hurricane would inundate nearly the entire city.
In the wettest zones, streets are studded with "For Sale" signs. "I know people who can't find buyers for their houses," said Skip Stiles, executive director of Wetlands Watch, a statewide advocacy group, on a drive through a historic neighborhood called The Hague. The area fronts on a canal and floods regularly. Telltale signs are easy to spot. Evaporating salt water leaves rusty stains on street curbs. Repeated overflows have killed grass in waterfront parks, leaving stretches of bare ground. Spartina, a salt-tolerant marsh grass, is sprouting on slopes above canals and marinas.
At the entrance to the Chrysler Museum of Art, which faces the estuary, Stiles paused. "There are usually ducks swimming around the front steps here after storms."
Last spring delegates from the Hampton Roads area sought money from the General Assembly to study how sea level rise could affect coastal Virginia. After Tea Party activists objected to spending money on climate science, the topic was changed to "recurrent flooding" and passed. Local officials hope the report will convince lawmakers to help communities pay for flood control projects. That won't happen until next year at the earliest, after state legislators review scientists' projections.
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29 Comments
Add CommentWhether climate change is global, local, manmade, cyclical, recurring, due to sunspots, galactic or biblical; whatever the cause or label people choose to give it... those who are prepared will do better, those who ignore it will pay a high price.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisVirgina should outlaw climate change the same way North Carolina did.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIt seems that the republican plan to politicize reality is at least consistent across the board. Whether talking about denying climate change, outlawing awareness of sea level rise, claiming women can't get pregnant from rape, the republicans seem to have a world view that is fixed and so they change the facts to agree with that world view. But is that a surprise from people who believe their faith in the existence of an invisible sky daddy is all they need to force their opinions on the american people? As is often said, people who believe without evidence will act without evidence. Are people who are fundamentally irrational really who we want to run the US?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhen H20 level is up to eyeballs of ANTI-climate change & environment & science, logic & truth & anti-all but the 1% & pro-corporate greed & superstition... MAYBE republican politicians & their puppet masters on Wall St. & in board rooms of oil, coal, chemical companies & tea party mad hat-ers etc. will suddenly notice their intentionally false anti-climate change "beliefs" are all wet & they'll be washed away from office in a flood of public rage.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisIs this repugnican stupidity any different then their believe in creationism and their lack of scientific knowledge in general?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisdbtinc, ignorant comment. I live in the bible belt where millions and millions of Democrats attend services and believe in their religion. Many of these people grew up as Democrats, have only ever voted for a Democrat and will continue to do so. They look at someone like you and say a prayer for your soul.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFor those who don't believe in a religion, they worship men like President Obama instead of some deity. That is, anti-religious liberals nuts worship men or cling to their ideology or antipathy towards people that don't think like them.
Either way, many of these people are not natural climate change deniers. After all, they are taught early in school that we have had multiple ice ages and when they look around at the world now, they are dang glad all the ice has melted. No one is complaining that the oceans have risen as the ice has melted.
@RDH "For those who don't believe in a religion, they worship men like President Obama instead of some deity."
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this..talk about an ignorant comment.. holy christ is that a doosie
I do enjoy warmists and their attempt to make it seem like anyone is stupid if they dont follow the warmist dogma and their so called solutions.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThis is a good example as to why individual cities and areas need to deal with specific problems, not some global one world government like management of everything because the warmists want it that way. Some state level law on climate change would not have reduced rising sealevels by a single drop of water, nor would it resolve the flooding problems Norfolk has been experiencing for its entire existence.
The problem is since most tax money is taken first by the feds and then the state, leaving nothing for a city, there is no way for the city to plan for its mitigation of flooding. Get the state and local government out of the way, but those two entities not taxing away every dollar possible, then norfolk would be able to afford to deal with their flooding problems.
The warmists problems are they attribute everything to global warming as caused by humans producing CO2. When anyone with sense realizes reducing CO2 is not going to solve a flooding problem that has been going on in Norfolk forever. Every city and region in the world is going to have different issues to resolve and there is simply no way for warmists to predict who will have what problems and certainly no one world fix to it all.
Good job warmists, you created such a ridiculous butterfly effect theory, sold it to idiot national politicians around the world and effectively made it impossible to do anything about warming or its effects.
Sheesh... do the oil companies pay in you cash under the table to write such drivel, or do you actually get a paycheck from them?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThe article is yet another propaganda piece from unScientific American.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisSea level is rising by approximately 3mm per year. Any change beyond that level is not due to AGW or a rise in sea level, but due to a change in land height completely unrelated to AGW.
Idiots like tharris who think people who point out the actual science and facts are being funded by oil companies is pretty laughable.
Facts:
More CO2 will warm the planet
Science does not current understand how much a doubling of CO2 will warm the planet. The current range of estimates include margins of error that include situations that would be of no concern and situations of significant concern.
We have no reliable data to tell us that a warmer world is ecessarily worse for humanity overall of for the USA overall over the long term. The peer reviewed articles that many cite on this issue are based on the output of GCMs that have now been demonstrated to not be able to accurately forecast future rainfall levels.
There is almost no probability that worldwide CO2 emissions will go down for decades regardless of US actions. China and the rest of the developing world will continue to want and need more energy.
The most prudent actions for the USA to take is to plan for an build new infrastructure as it is needed that takes into account the possibility of extended dry periods and potentially periods of heavier rainfall.
Countries that build good infrastructure will continue to protect their citizens. Countries that do not will have citizens that suffer from bad weather.
@RDH, "For those who don't believe in a religion, they worship men like President Obama instead of some deity." nice try but just because your intellectual challenges force you to worship a bronze age myth, doesn't mean the people with more than 2 functioning brain cells need the same crutch. I don't worship anything. I respect some things and some people. I do so in a measured way, not blindly. I am able to find faults in my heroes and virtues in my enemies. At the end of the day, what I respect most is intellectual process regardless of what I may think of the person it comes from and I suspect that that is fairly common among atheists with a scientific inclination.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"No one is complaining that the oceans have risen as the ice has melted." now you see what happens when you spend all your waking hours shagging your cattle and no time actually learn about those things of which you think you are an expert.
It's funny, you complain about someone belittling religious republicans and then go ahead and prove their point.
@Sisko, "Any change beyond that level is not due to AGW or a rise in sea level but due to a change in land height completely unrelated to AGW" should we call it intelligent sinking? Do you deniers compete to see who can say the most idiotic thing and still have it repeated on every denier blog? I don't think there is a lower limit.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"Facts:More CO2 will warm the planet" wow, that must have been really hard for you to type. I'm sure admitting the truth is difficult for a right wing nut job. You've now moved on to step 3 of the deniers 12 step program. This one involves accepting AGW, but insisting there is nothing we can do to stop it so let's prepare for the best-case scenario and maintain the status quo. Stock up on bottled water and we can tough our way through this slightly annoying phase the world is experiencing.
Thanks for your contribution to humanity. I'm sure we wouldn't be able to go extinct quite so fast without you.
I do enjoy these discussions,more like tirades actually.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI doubt that much investigation goes before writing,as I have yet to see any reference to actual records of sea level rise or of land subsidence by either side.
I am a Skepic by nature ,so I don't accept any statements without reference to some hard facts.
These are hard to come by ,but Americans enjoy slanging each other so carry on with the show.
Maybe I should do some Googling.
I d not think building on stilts is the answer. People need to accept the fact that the land they built on is no longer viable and move. Sometimes you have to take the loss and move on.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI remember when the government forced people along the banks of the Mississippi to move out of the flood zone because the constant flooding was causing unavoidable damage to homes and properties. We lost our clubhouse on the Illinois River that way even though we would have been quite happy to keep the place and repair any damage when those peak floods came in. It was a place we used for weekend fishing trips during the summer.
The government may have to do something similar here as well. Do not allow property owners to rebuild. Pay for the land and convert them to public lands (probably wetlands). It would be expensive and probably not at all popular politically but, in the end, it would lower flood insurance costs and move people out of the danger zone.
My 2 cents....
rschmidt
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYou criticize what I have written by calling it idiotic, but if you deny the truth it is you who is an idiot. Try to lean some science. BTW idiot, I am not a republican. I guess that is another prejudicial stereotype that you exhibit isn’t it? What is it that I am denying? Inaccurate propaganda in favor of accurate science.
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
Sisko,
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisGoogle: uneven sea level rise
Prid you still ranting every time another story of effects pieces your dream world that the sea isn't rising when your own town's roads, islands are being covered at high tide now.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI too have to wonder if you are just a willfully ignorant person or a paid oil troll.
Get ready for whatever sea level and temperature results from releasing all the carbon dioxide possible. There is no way humans will ever agree to do anything about CO2. The only chance of any carbon staying in the ground is a MAJOR price reduction in non-CO2 producing energy sources.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI'm quite sure the wealthiest among us have already inflated land values in western Canada.
LOL RSchmidt, generalize much? It was ONE guy who made the rape comments.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisdbtinc, name ONE atheist Dem politician.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisGood! Maybe coral will grow there again.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisOh yes, the Dems have a monopoly on science:
"My fear is that the whole island will become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize."-Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.), speaking about Guam.
Ok, the article says the worst flooding was 79 years ago, so why the panic?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisge556
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisPerhaps you need to read more about "uneven sea level rise" before believing it will lead to the problems described. Even if it leads to the predicted 25% variability around the world, it will onlt mean that sea level would rise by about 3 inches more at the locations most impacted if the rate scence over the last 20 plus years continues.
Sisko
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisA rise of 3 mm/year translates to a 12 inch increase/century. Estimates of sea level rise based on business as usual projections range from 7 inches to 23 inches/century (IPCC). Recent research suggests that sea level rise during the 21st century could be several times the IPCC estimates based on potential changes in ice sheet dynamics (Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009). If true, sea level rise could be anywhere from 3 to 6 feet by the end of the century.
The IPCC AR4 predicted .6 meters if I recall correctly.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisMany people who fear additional CO2 have predicted that the rate of sea level rise will increase and result in a change of 3 to 6 feet by 2100. Well, guess what-there has been no rate increase so far over the last 20 years. We can keep watching the data, but those projections seem unsupportable based upon observation
A very interesting artiicle. It doen't matter wher eyour sympathies lie. The issue is that we are going to have to abandon some of out largest coastal cities like Annapolis, Wilmington, Charlston, Savannah, Miami, New York, Los Angeles and so on.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThis sounds like a bit of an inconvenience to me althought I do like it that we may get more beachfront property.
Surfs up!.
The lead sentence in the article says:
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this"The long-term average rate of sea-level rise in Hampton Roads is about one foot per century, but that pace has accelerated sharply recently, which makes it challenging to gauge future rates of change."
Here's the link to the Sewells Point - Hampton Roads, VA tide gauge data:
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/299.php
You be the judge whether or not there's been acceleration in sea-level rise recently
good luck! you will need it
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisspoken like a true right wing ignoramus
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this