That was not an option that they wanted to pursue, he said.
After ruling out that possibility, the NHC addressed transitioning the responsibility over to local weather forecast offices, but resolved that it would have been too abrupt a switch for emergency managers mid-way through the event.
"The emergency managers did not want any part of that," Landsea said. "That is the worst case for them because they have to switch from dealing with hurricane warnings to dealing with the local warnings -- extremely confusing for them and the public," he said.
"So we heard very strongly from the eastern region -- the WFOs -- 'Don't do that.'"
The decision was made assuming that the hurricane would transition to an extra-tropical cyclone, but it was unclear when that would occur. The uncertainty weighed in their decision-making process.
"We were anticipating it to do that transition to an extra tropical cyclone. We didn't know when. We didn't know if it was going to be two days before landfall, a day before landfall, or right at landfall."
Had they known the transition would occur right around landfall, this could have been viable option, Landsea explained. But without knowing, there was the chance that this option would have resulted in "chaos and confusion."
The third option was also a bad option, he said. The NHC could have "faked it" for a day or two and continue to call it a hurricane when it was not, but they feared this could have severely damaged their credibility in the future.
"Yes, that would have worked. We could have gotten the advisories out to the U.S. coast, but our credibility would have gone in the tank for us to continue writing advisories on a hurricane when it was clearly a winter storm," Landsea said.
With these options ruled out, the NHC went forward with writing advisories but the local WFOs carried the warnings.
"[It was] clearly not good. It caused a lot of confusion. We got a lot of grief about it, admittedly," Landsea said.
After addressing the issue last week at the annual NOAA Hurricane Conference in Miami, the NHC has decided to modify their advisory system to allow for more flexibility, and has revised their official definition of "Hurricane Warning."
Beginning next year, the NHC will be able to issue multiple advisories on post-tropical cyclones for landfalling systems or close bypassers.
We've made the decision already that if the same exact hurricane, same exact scenario was going to happen, we are going to do things differently," Landsea said.
From AccuWeather.com (find the original story here); reprinted with permission.
See what we're tweeting about
12 Comments
Add CommentThis will question the "official story" strongly, so it might not be printed.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThey seem to be going out of their way to cast the "Hurricane" Sandy incident as abnormal in the extreme.
You can leave aside an individual with the National Hurricane Cewnter having the surname Landsea. You can also ignore their referring to "almost two months after" the system hit the East Coast, when it's only a little over a month.
But the difficulties they claim in the warning system if the storm went sub troipical or not are bizarre, given the fact that such complications never occurred before for any other hurricane! With the Weather Service's constant surveillance of such storm systems, it seems ludicrous for them to claim they did not have an adequate way they could announce when the storm became sub tropical. Couldn't the fact that the satellite supposedly showed a tight rotation and distinct eyewall indicate that it was still a hurricane?
But add this to all the other suspicious touches of the "hurricane".
Such as that there have hurricanes of at least category 1 through this are before, and massive nor'easters at high tide, and never one was there anywhere near this much damage or claimed storm surge.
Electrical wires were allowed to sit unattanded on the ground for days and highway lights, that aren't fed by overhead lines, were out, both among the indications that the power loss was caused by electrical companies simply turning off the juice.
It is utterly unreasonable to accept that money desiring gas companies would allow their gas stations not to be equipped with generators to run during power outages, or that, when they heard a "super storm" was coming, they wouldn't rush generators to them. That and only single gas stations in regions being allowed to open, even after power was restored and gas deliveries begunb again, strongly indicate the gas shortage was engineered, too.
And New Jersey has seen about a decade of fabricated "flooding" now, uphill, affluent areas opening the floodgates on the reservoirs to inundate low lying areas, after which affected property could be snapped up for a song.
And add the absolutely aberrant situation of climate change proponents hearing the incredible predictions even days ahead the the storm supposedly coming ashore, but not one of them announcing this was a sample of the extreme wqeather that climate change is expected to bring.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisDefenders of a lie know know they cannot rely on it for proof to oppose criticism, so they turn to other, non argument, means for answering contradictions. Unexplained dismissiveness, contempt, arrogance, viciousness, mockery, vulgarity.
Nostradamus and Isaiah predict a solar surge in this time period. ( also implied by crop formations ) . 700% for 7 days is the numbers given. I wont be surprised if it happens dec 21.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisHappy Long Count
They couldn't warn people because it would break their system, is that what they are saying? Am I the only one seeing something almost criminal here?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisFirst before anyone takes the bait, @JulianPenrod is and has always been a troll. Leave him alone and hopefully he'll go away.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisSecond, wow, there are a ton of conspiracy theorists out there!
From the statements made by the NHL et al., it would appear that they have become captive of political considerations and obsessive technicality (i.e. "a rose by any other name" is still a storm)
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI do not know if I should be more frightened of the beurocrats in "charge" and their mind-set or a hurricane.
Maybe you are the troll, facts are facts.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisYour bait is sooooo fake,
What a bunch of horse-pocky. What is the purpose of NHC except to track storms that will cause loss of life or property damage? In the middle of a storm that has not exited the US, to say they will discontinue issuing tracking information is unacceptable. How much confusion and possibly loss of life was caused by this decision? Sounds to me like someone in the NHC should be on the street at least looking for a job or up on charges.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisWhat a difference an administration makes.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisKatrina was Bush's fault.
Obama was Sandy's fault.
Too funny!
The silly part of all this is, no matter what warnings or updates were issued, none of it would have altered the outcome.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisThere comes a time when the 'other' guy is really all of us.
There is a NOVA program on PBS that follows Sandy from beginning to end, and it includes the UK computer model that forecast Sandy's unusual path when Sandy was just a tropical depression; http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/inside-the-megastorm.html
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to thisI thought it was an informative program that explains the process of why and when the warnings were given.
U R an idiot! Recorded history doesn't go back far enough to have records of our planet's 50,000 to 100,000 year climate cycle. This has been proven by geologists. Depending on which model that you look at, there will be 2-4 magnetic pole shifts encompassing this. Modern humans have NEVER experienced a pole reversal (and all of the anomalies that come with it) so we just don't know. But 1 thing is for certain: Humans are a SPECK on the Earth's timeline. It is very typical for humans to believe that we have the "power" to cause this fictitious idea to transpire. Remember that we used to be the center of the universe and the Earth was flat! So to all of you "Chicken Littles" out there: THE SKY IS NOT FALLING! And the Earth will be around for billions of years after we kill ourselves off!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this