New Issue: Orbital Catastrophe Ahead? Read Now

IEA Warns Air Pollution to Kill Millions More If Policies Don't Change

Asia will account for almost 90 percent of the rise in deaths, the International Energy Agency says 

Join Our Community of Science Lovers!

By Nina Chestney

LONDON (Reuters) - Premature deaths from air pollution will continue to rise to 2040 unless changes are made to the way the world uses and produces energy, the International Energy Agency said on Monday.

Around 6.5 million deaths globally are attributed each year to poor air quality inside and outside, making it the world's fourth-largest threat to human health, behind high blood pressure, dietary risks and smoking.


On supporting science journalism

If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.


Harmful pollutants such as particulate matter - which can contain acids, metals, soil and dust particles - sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides, are responsible for the most widespread effects of air pollution.

Tiny particulate matter can cause lung cancer, strokes and heart disease over the long term, as well as trigger symptoms such as heart attacks that kill more rapidly.

The release of these pollutants is mainly due to the unregulated or inefficient production and use of energy, the IEA said in a special report on energy and air pollution.

Without action, annual premature deaths attributable to outdoor air pollution will increase to 4.5 million in 2040 from around 3 million currently. Premature deaths due to household air pollution however, should fall to 2.9 million from 3.5 million.

Asia will account for almost 90 percent of the rise in deaths.

Even though global emissions are forecast to decline overall to 2040, existing and planned energy policies will not be enough to improve air quality, the report said.

Harmful greenhouse gas emissions should continue to fall in industrialized countries and recent signs of decline in China should continue, but emissions are set to rise in India, southeast Asia and Africa as energy demand growth dwarfs efforts to improve air quality.

The IEA said increasing total energy investment by 7 percent, or $4.7 trillion, to 2040 could help ensure premature deaths from outdoor pollution fall to 2.8 million and from household air pollution to 1.3 million.

"This is completely peanuts. With a seven percent increase you can save over three million lives," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told reporters in London.

New energy and air quality policies will also deliver cleaner air. Each country needs to have a credible, long-term air quality goal, the report said.

There should be a package of measures for the energy sector such as fitting coal-fired power plants with scrubbers; more use of renewable energy; increased energy efficiency and emissions control, it said.

Subscribe to Support Independent Journalism

Great science journalism requires human expertise, time, effort and creativity. And it costs money. That’s why I and the journalists here at Scientific American hope you’ll join our community.

When you subscribe, you are supporting staff and freelance journalists who are passionate about telling science stories that are true, important and compelling. Our editors and reporters are often experts in their fields, which means they understand the nuances of big discoveries and can untangle the breakthroughs from the hype. With a subscription, you are also supporting rigorous fact-checking to ensure the words we publish are precise and accurate. And you’re supporting original illustrations, graphics and photos that bring you closer to an advanced laboratory, an ice sheet in Antarctica or a space mission in orbit. You’re helping us craft other types of high-quality journalism as well: Our newsletters are carefully written, edited and curated by staffers you have or will come to know and love. Our Science Quickly podcast is based on original reporting, collaboration with editors and scientists and exacting production.

Subscriptions keep this engine running so we can continue to deliver thoughtful, rigorous and independent science journalism to you. In an era of viral misinformation, this work is crucial. If you value what we do, I hope you’ll consider joining us as a subscriber

Thank you,

Jeanna Bryner, Editor in Chief, Scientific American

Subscribe