Los Angeles might not end up as an island when the Big One rocks California, but any sizable seismic event on the San Andreas fault will send L.A. several meters closer to San Francisco. Scientists and the public have long expected a major quake to strike the West Coast; the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that California has a 99 percent chance before 2038 of experiencing at least a magnitude 6.7 quake—the same size as the 1994 Northridge earthquake.