U.S. Plan for 2050

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By 2050 vast photovoltaic arrays in the Southwest would supply electricity instead of fossil-fueled power plants and would also power a widespread conversion to plug-in electric vehicles. Excess energy would be stored as compressed air in underground caverns. Large arrays that concentrate sunlight to heat water would also supply electricity. A new high-voltage, direct-current transmission backbone would carry power to regional markets nationwide. The technologies and factors critical to their success are summarized at the right, along with the extent to which the technologies must be deployed by 2050. The plan would substantially cut the country’s consumption of fossil fuels and its emission of greenhouse gases (below). We have assumed a 1 percent annual growth in net energy demand. And we have anticipated improvements in solar technologies forecasted only until 2020, with no further gains beyond that date.
—K.Z., J.M. and V.F.

Technology	Critical Factor	2007	2050	Advances needed
Photovoltaics	Land area	10 sq miles	30,000 sq miles	Policies to develop large public land areas
Thin-film module efficiency	10%	14%	More transparent materials to improve light transmission; more densely doped layers to increase voltage; larger modules to reduce inactive area
Installed cost	$4/W	$1.20/W	Improvements in module efficiency; gains from volume production
Electricity price	16¢/kWh	5¢/kWh	Follows from lower installed cost
Total capacity	0.5 GW	2,940 GW	National energy plan built around solar power
Compressed-air energy storage (with photovoltaic electricity)	Volume	0	535 billion cu ft	Coordination of site development with natural gas industry
Installed cost	$5.80/W	$3.90/W	Economies of scale; decreasing photovoltaic electricity prices
Electricity price	20¢/kWh	9¢/kWh	Follows from lower installed cost
Total capacity	0.1 GW	558 GW	National energy plan
Concentrated solar power	Land area	10 sq miles	16,000 sq miles	Policies to develop large public land areas
Solar-to-electric efficiency	13%	17%	Fluids that transfer heat more effectively
Installed cost	$5.30/W	$3.70/W	Single-tank thermal storage systems; economies of scale
Electricity price	18¢/kWh	9¢/kWh	Follows from lower installed cost
Total capacity	0.5 GW	558 GW	National energy plan
DC transmission	Length	500 miles	100,000- 500,000 miles	New high-voltage DC grid from Southwest to rest of country

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